CAPITALISM MAFIA
- Thread starter Jivvi
- Start date
But what about all the posts where people mentioned a serial killer (SK). There have been many, many posts mentioning the serial killer so I doubt he overlooked it. So far we have had two kills every night. Presumably one from mafia and one from the "serial killer", so why would he say that the autocrat could kill? No-one else has ever mentioned this possibility before and Jivvi didn't mention it when he described the role. Erik didn't even mention it before.
But Jivvi didn't mention that the autocrat had any abilities, just that it had survive a town win. Also, why would it be way too OP is the autocrat (for all we know) has no other abilities?
Well yeah, but if he was very tired then he would slip a lot more easily.
Why do you mean he's hinting the mafia? Also what does he take notice of, can you specify and why is it weird?
What do you mean by what he said making sense for a mafia but not a third party?
Also why is he very likely neither mafia or third party? Why is it more likely that he is mafia over third party, when the supposed slip is to do with the possibility of his being third party and not mafia?
He's likely not third party but there's a decent chance he's mafia Iggish
I don't think there's an autocrat with kill powers (that would be broken) and if he really was he wouldn't just type that and bring attention to the fact that we need to lynch autocrat. This entire game he has been mostly anti-3rd party and not much anti-mafia at all, which is a trap mafia often fall for.
I don't think there's an autocrat with kill powers (that would be broken) and if he really was he wouldn't just type that and bring attention to the fact that we need to lynch autocrat. This entire game he has been mostly anti-3rd party and not much anti-mafia at all, which is a trap mafia often fall for.
Can you point out where he's mostly been anti-third party and not anti-Mafia and are you sure you're not just dismissing his points against rune as "not anti-Mafia" just because you thought he was town?
I'm guessing that you are thinking of this from a statistical view as it is extremely likely that there are more mafia than third party.
If you're not thinking statistically, then idk what you're thinking. Erik hasn't done anything to be considered a possible mafia while his possible slip makes him a lot more likely to be the autocrat and a third party.
But why would it be broken if it supposedly has no other powers? How would that make it OP / broken?
He doesn't want to lynch the autocrat (yet) though. He said he'd prefer to get rid of the autocrat at the end of the game.
This is exactly what the actual autocrat would want, as it would stop questions about the autocrat until the end of the game. If the town were to be falsely convinced that they knew who the autocrat is, the real autocrat (erik, for this example), would just coast along until the end of the game and that try and snatch the win when there are hardly any people left.
Do you mean that people have accused more people of being third party then being mafia? Because I don't think that's true.
Also what do you mean by a trap? What trap and what would the mafia falling for it even mean?
I think he's saying he thinks erik's more likely to be Mafia then 3p because he thinks erik has been more anti-third party than anti-Mafia in his posts, but I'm not sure where he's got that from
And by the "trap that Mafia often fall for" I think he means that Mafia members often behave anti-third party to seem townie but not anti-Mafia because they're Mafia or something. I've never seen any Mafia do that before personally but I think that's what he's saying
Sorry for not cutting the quote, still on mobile
And to further clarify the trap thing I think he's sayin that Mafia sci hunt for third party genuinely because it's in their interest to do so but don't genuinely Mafia hunt and he thinks erik's doing this
Nope, just that I was in a lesson typing that so I didn't have time on replying on what Iggish said about Erik. I'm still on mobile so this reply will be shite. My reply was intended towards the fact that you seem like a townie, and that it was out of place that all of the sudden; you have Erik trying to label you as an SK. You are right that what's the point of switching from me since it's easy to get me out of the way and if you eventually find out that I'm a townie; that it's basically an easy lynch on a townie who fucked up on day one. Also, I wouldn't consider it as a bandwagon but me being overly aggressive which resulted in me looking scummy asf and then me not replying correctly which made me look even more scummy.
Mafia would try to switch to you to try to confuse others, currently, I'm the sure fire lynch for today; lynching one innocent townie is an easy way of getting closer to the win condition, but making you also seem like a lynchable target would:
- a) Potentially have the town switch from me to you, giving the mafia the advantage of the fact that you're one of the best interrogators currently in the town lineup and also managed to get the Godfather. Therefore if they manage to sway/confuse the town to vote for you then there goes a notable member of the town.
- b) If they fail to get a bandwagon on you, then I'm the one who's getting lynched and because of this, they get a town either way.
- c) To confuse the potential 3P who can kill you off at night instead of potentially a mafia member by random chance. This point is something which came up while I'm currently on the bus BUT I'm not sure about this though, is there an SK in this game or it's Erik's slip up in stating that autocrat does kill/trying to connect Autocrat with SK?
My claim is sticking as Justin Trudeau as a vanilla townie so I accept your apology Inffy <3 but obviously, I would ask for you to reconsider since so far, everything I've said hasn't made a difference in clearing my name so it's up to you to decide if you want to continue trying to lynch on me.
Also, I guess it's easy to dismiss my arguments that it was made by a mafia member and it would be something that mafia would say.
This argument would also apply if I never claimed and never spoke after day one after I went too aggressive then there's also the potential of town getting it right and lynching a mafia member so what would be the point for the town to switch if there's a reasonable case for me being lynched? I don't accept this argument because I'm not mafia nor did I stop speaking after day one with all of the suspicion attached
This argument would also apply if I never claimed and never spoke after day one after I went too aggressive then there's also the potential of town getting it right and lynching a mafia member so what would be the point for the town to switch if there's a reasonable case for me being lynched? I don't accept this argument because I'm not mafia nor did I stop speaking after day one with all of the suspicion attached
i'll take a shower and then start looking at shit i guess
(I may or may not have gotten carried away with this image but this is confusing as jivvi claims you left and you're not counted for the total people left or the number for amount of votes till lynch(since if you're here with then with 14 alive shouldnt it be 8 to lynch) so ¿whatishappning¿¿)
i asked him on discord and he was like "dude idk i guess you can still play since you technically haven't died yet" so i guess he initially intended for me to not play any more but didn't see the point in not letting me play either or idk myself
(I may or may not have gotten carried away with this image but this is confusing as jivvi claims you left and you're not counted for the total people left or the number for amount of votes till lynch(since if you're here with then with 14 alive shouldnt it be 8 to lynch) so ¿whatishappning¿¿)
anyway i'm still playing so
i mean, i'm not without a win condition, i've simply already reached it
this is not the first time this has happened, either
for example: TBD where i was rick astley, also won day 1 and continued to play
letting the 3rd parties whose win condition doesn't contradict town or mafia win conditions keep playing once they've reached their win conditions is pretty standard, honestly
Ok, I'm going to try and make people understand why I think Rune is scummy. People have pretty "meh" opinions on Rune, saying that he "a bit suspicious" and that he's "said suspicious" things. Tbh, I just don't think people understood / understand what happened and why I'm so suspicious of him. Inffy said a while back that you're not as invested in something and you find it hard to understand when you're not involved in it and I think this is particularly true in this instance.
This is a very important detail as when questioned later, he went into more detail and said that I was playing reactively when I wasn't at the time.
Here we see Rune's points against me. He says that I'm apparently leading the selection process and try to get a lynch rolling. He also said my current play style was similar to the one form the previous game where I was scum. These statements simply weren't true.
This is a very important detail as when questioned later, he went into more detail and said that I was playing reactively when I wasn't at the time.
This is where I do show reactive tendencies. Note that this is after Rune's initial accusations, which he later justifies by saying that I was playing reactively and that's why he said those points. That's not true, I only showed reactive tendencies after, which Inffy pointed out above.
Inf asks Rune where he thought I was taking the lead and he says that I was being overly reactive. However, when he made the accusations, there was no evidence that I was being reactive.
Yes, I was reactive and vocal in the previous game, but there was no evidence of that this game when Rune made his accusations. He said I was very reactive in my defence and I did become like that but once again, at the time of his accusations, I wasn't.
Rune then replied to a post I made about my suspicions and about how saying how Rune's posts were weird.
Let's get this party started.
I don't know if I'll count against mafia numbers or not, I don't know if Jivvi will count my vote, I don't know if the bulletproof vest that I got as part of my role is effective anymore, but let's not let such minute details get in the way of anything. For the time being, the town can consider me one of their own, although you might want to take everything I put forward with a grain of salt, because I want to focus on the more unlikely theories, since they're usually the more intriguing ones.
ERIK
The reason I voted erik at the beginning of the day was because I think he might be mafia. I wanted to see who would react to the vote and how, and how he would react himself.
But before I get to that, let me explain why I think he could be a mafioso.
Of the nearly 1000 posts that have been made in this game, 14 are his and even fewer actually attempt to contribute to the discussion. I don't know about you guys, but I find that to be a concerningly low amount of posts. Either he is a townie disinterested in the game, in which case his inactivity is aiding the mafia gain a louder voice in day discussions, or he is a mafia or serial killer trying to lay low. Not receiving email notifications is not a valid defense because considering how active this game has been, one would think that he'd think to check the forums at least daily. While the first option is certainly possible, I find that the second one makes more sense, particularly if we assume he's mafia.
To show you why I think so, let's look at all his posts (I'll omit the ones that contain nothing noteworthy in my opinion).
In this quote, I see that erik has taken a particular reason why someone might be scummy and has then looked at who fits the criteria. While sometimes this is town behaviour, I find it to be more in line with how scum thinks.
His bit on Rune is, again, going along with what most people seem to think, and also displaying the mindset of looking like he's scumhunting, while really just looking for an easy lynch. His opinion on TWG looks to me like he's putting forward the sensible idea in order to seem more town, and also the token disagreement with majority, since he could be realising himself that he's been playing it safe all the time.
Last little thing I'd like to call into question is telling us there's a contradiction in his post and then not telling us what it is. While I don't think it's indicative of alignment in any way, it's just weird and not helpful for the town at all.
So, to recap:
-He seems to be more concerned with lynching than scumhunting.
-He seems to be more concerned with playing it safe than moving discussion forward.
-He was reluctant to lynch Aqua.
Those three facts are in my opinion pretty strong indicators of scum, hence my opinion that he could be mafia.
I don't know if I'll count against mafia numbers or not, I don't know if Jivvi will count my vote, I don't know if the bulletproof vest that I got as part of my role is effective anymore, but let's not let such minute details get in the way of anything. For the time being, the town can consider me one of their own, although you might want to take everything I put forward with a grain of salt, because I want to focus on the more unlikely theories, since they're usually the more intriguing ones.
ERIK
The reason I voted erik at the beginning of the day was because I think he might be mafia. I wanted to see who would react to the vote and how, and how he would react himself.
But before I get to that, let me explain why I think he could be a mafioso.
Of the nearly 1000 posts that have been made in this game, 14 are his and even fewer actually attempt to contribute to the discussion. I don't know about you guys, but I find that to be a concerningly low amount of posts. Either he is a townie disinterested in the game, in which case his inactivity is aiding the mafia gain a louder voice in day discussions, or he is a mafia or serial killer trying to lay low. Not receiving email notifications is not a valid defense because considering how active this game has been, one would think that he'd think to check the forums at least daily. While the first option is certainly possible, I find that the second one makes more sense, particularly if we assume he's mafia.
To show you why I think so, let's look at all his posts (I'll omit the ones that contain nothing noteworthy in my opinion).
This is pretty much the first post in the thread that actually wants to get something done. While objectively this is a pro-town move, it's pretty obvious that it can also benefit everyone else. What's more, this is a pretty straightforward move, and therefore something that a scum trying to pose as a townie would not have trouble coming up with. Also note how he does not start off with stating his own role name. Instead, he wants someone else to start off. This is something I would expect a scum to do, because if no one else goes along with it, the information he gives to others about himself would be wasted in terms of getting information back, and would probably damage the scum agenda by giving the town more to work with.
Here we see him going along with the majority opinion of the time. Again, a safe post that moves the discussion forward a bit, but doesn't actually do any good.
Same deal as the first one, but with the added bonus of drawing attention to the fact that he has (supposedly) been useful to the town.
Another safe post.
This quote interests me because it gives me the feeling that erik is more concerned with finding reasons to lynch people than finding mafia. A subtle difference for some, perhaps, but it makes an enormous difference in mindset. Allow me to explain: when a player is scumhunting, they usually look at people and what they have done. They attempt to figure out why a player has or hasn't said or done something. They look at reasons behind behaviour, and from there try to figure out who is mafia and who is not, who to lynch and who not to lynch. When a player is trying to look like they're scumhunting, but is really scum, they usually go for the people that have done something they think could be found scummy, but they don't stop to think why they might have done so.
In this quote, I see that erik has taken a particular reason why someone might be scummy and has then looked at who fits the criteria. While sometimes this is town behaviour, I find it to be more in line with how scum thinks.
Again, seems like he's looking for reasons to accuse people, instead of looking at people and trying to figure out their motives. That, and the "ya we should go after suspicious people" is the most obvious thing in mafia, and in my experience, stuff like that is more often said by people who feel like they need to compensate for their behaviour to seem more town-like (which is obviously a scum thing to do).
This post is his first mention of Aqua. Considering that by that point, Aqua already had 5 (?) votes on him, the fact that he considers him a possible candidate for a lynch isn't indicative of his alignment either way, in my opinion. What I find more intriguing is the fact that he's going along with the majority opinion here, while still leaving himself enough room to back out of suspecting Aqua by saying that he's only skimmed the last few pages and he's not comfortable with lynching him yet.
Again, trying to draw attention to something that he proposed and would perhaps benefit the town. It does look to me like he's concerned with appearing townie.
Disregarding the fact that he basically said he wanted to lynch me just because I'd win otherwise, not because it'd end the game or anything but just because he wanted to deny me the win (fuck you too, I guess <3), his reasoning for suspecting me is flimsy at best and feels more like a reason conjured up in order to have justification voting me than anything. Note also how it supports Aqua's reasoning at the time and how Aqua is last in his lynch order.
This only came when everyone else who voted had already voted, so it's completely meaningless.
I've no idea where he takes the idea that the autocrat can kill, but if it's not a misunderstanding, it could be a way to divert attention off the serial killer, which would mean that he's the SK. However, I'm willing to chalk this one up to not paying much attention. I disagree with most of what he says regarding the autocrat, but we'll get to that later, since it's not really relevant in terms of him being scum or not. What I do think could be relevant is that in naming the autocrat, he once again goes along with other people's opinions and plays it safe by doing so.
His bit on Rune is, again, going along with what most people seem to think, and also displaying the mindset of looking like he's scumhunting, while really just looking for an easy lynch. His opinion on TWG looks to me like he's putting forward the sensible idea in order to seem more town, and also the token disagreement with majority, since he could be realising himself that he's been playing it safe all the time.
Last little thing I'd like to call into question is telling us there's a contradiction in his post and then not telling us what it is. While I don't think it's indicative of alignment in any way, it's just weird and not helpful for the town at all.
So, to recap:
-He seems to be more concerned with lynching than scumhunting.
-He seems to be more concerned with playing it safe than moving discussion forward.
-He was reluctant to lynch Aqua.
Those three facts are in my opinion pretty strong indicators of scum, hence my opinion that he could be mafia.
THE AUTOCRAT
I really don't understand why people think the Autocrat would want to stay low. First of all, lynching mafia is in their best interests, so not trying to actively help do that would be counterintuitive. Secondly, laying low would sooner or later bring attention to them as people turn to inactives with the logic of "oh, look, they're trying to lay low", which is something they don't want. Thirdly, if they do as much as they can to help the town win, they'll be (in theory, at least) indistinguishable from true townies, not counting for cops or other investigatives.
Of course, you could make the argument that this is exactly what the Autocrat wants you to think and perhaps the Autocrat has, indeed thought of everything I just said and has taken the counterintuitive route in order to seem less like the Autocrat, but that would be dumb and would also carry more risk. What I really don't think they would do, however, is do what Inf did and deliberately stay quiet in the beginning, because anyone with half a brain would anticipate that this move would be controversial, something the Autocrat probably doesn't want because they do still need to survive until the end of the game, and controversy tends to increase chances of getting lynched.
I think our best bet is to focus on getting maf for now and when we've taken down two more mafia or so, then start looking for the Autocrat, if they haven't already died by then. That gives us time to get more posts out of everyone and decreases our chances of lynching a useful townie, because I do believe that the Autocrat is going to look very similar to one.
I really don't understand why people think the Autocrat would want to stay low. First of all, lynching mafia is in their best interests, so not trying to actively help do that would be counterintuitive. Secondly, laying low would sooner or later bring attention to them as people turn to inactives with the logic of "oh, look, they're trying to lay low", which is something they don't want. Thirdly, if they do as much as they can to help the town win, they'll be (in theory, at least) indistinguishable from true townies, not counting for cops or other investigatives.
Of course, you could make the argument that this is exactly what the Autocrat wants you to think and perhaps the Autocrat has, indeed thought of everything I just said and has taken the counterintuitive route in order to seem less like the Autocrat, but that would be dumb and would also carry more risk. What I really don't think they would do, however, is do what Inf did and deliberately stay quiet in the beginning, because anyone with half a brain would anticipate that this move would be controversial, something the Autocrat probably doesn't want because they do still need to survive until the end of the game, and controversy tends to increase chances of getting lynched.
I think our best bet is to focus on getting maf for now and when we've taken down two more mafia or so, then start looking for the Autocrat, if they haven't already died by then. That gives us time to get more posts out of everyone and decreases our chances of lynching a useful townie, because I do believe that the Autocrat is going to look very similar to one.
I also have a crack theory that Inf, Notty and HK might be the remaining mafs, but it's probably wrong, I haven't researched it at all so it's all based on one small ridiculous thought that popped in my mind the other day, and I don't have time to start working on that right now, so that'll have to come some other time.
I then responded to Rune.
Inffy then chipped in as well. His whole post with quotes is on page 13 and I highly recommend you all read it.
Here we also see Rune not answering the question regarding where I took the lead and was being vocal for the first time.
Rune said that Inf said I was playing like last game (being reactive) but that was after I became reactive. Rune accused me before that. He said he was arguing that my style was similar to last game's well that was total bullshit as it wasn't. Here Rune (from my point of view) is intentionally getting the timeline mixed up to defend himself. Inffy said I was reactive when I was reactive. Rune accused me when I wasn't and yet he's comparing himself to Inf on the matter.
This is also the second time where we see Rune not answer the question of where was I leading the lynch.
Then in my posts of my suspicions on everyone, I mentioned that Rune hadn't responded to the question yet. Even though he had posted two (albeit short) messages in between this post and me asking previously.
Rune is now saying that it is a hunch. He draws similarities to how I've been playing this game in general and he reasons that it can be stated that I've been reactive. However, once again, Rune is not answering the question. He hasn't provided proof of where I was taking the lead. I wasn't being reactive before he accused me.
Inf and I then try to clarify the question again.
Rune responds and once again doesn't take the timeline into consideration. He says I was reactive and was pushing for a lynch when at the time of his accusations, I wasn't. He also doesn't answer how I was leading the town. Not answering the question #4.
Inffy's post describes it perfectly.
Now this answers a few questions but not the main one, how was I leading the town? Here Rune says that I was being vocal and posting diagrams and that made him thinking I was pushing for lynches. (I only posted one diagram before his accusations, but whatever)
I mean, this is just garbage. I made one diagram before his post. "More likely to lead a lynch", when he said I was leading the town.
My activity was mainly regarding defending myself. Defending myself, not attacking anyone and yet somehow Rune interpreted this as leading a lynch when I was on the back foot.
Ok, at this stage, Rune has answered finally, but the answer is incredulous. I was on the back foot, defending myself and Rune interpreted it as leading the town and advocating a lynch.
Inffy and Rune said some stuffs.
I then made this post which Rune rated "disagree" although I'm not sure what he disagrees with here. I asked him so many times to answer the question and to clarify over a long time frame and he only just gave an answer (although a very unsatisfactory one).
I think those are the main topics of discussion on this issue, I'm stopping this at page 31 for now. I have other reasons for suspecting Rune (sensitivity over country, sheep nature etc) but I'll leave that for now.
I think Rune started putting suspicion on me with no justification to try and bandwagon on me. At this time, Notty was putting pressure on me and Rune joined in. I called his BS and in addition to that, when Notty stopped with her suspicions, Rune stopped as well and started trying to be friendly with me. He apologised and said he thought I was probably a townie or something like that.
The reason Rune took so long to answer is simple, he didn't have one. When questioned, he answered with off-topic nonsense and never answered the question properly. At one stage he got angry and said something like "I HAVE TO GET THIS INTO YOUR HEAD", however he later said that looking back, his argument was garbage so why was he so protective of it? He just thought he could get an easy lynch. If you follow his line of reasoning and his answer, it makes no sense. He made the leap from me being active while on the back foot to me leading the town and advocating lynches.
He purposefully didn't answer the question over a period of like 20 pages.
I think this is extremely scummy and it is also why I kept my vote on Rune to the last on day 1 although supporting an Aqua lynch.
I don't think I've been overly bias with this post and I've tried to include all relevant quotes. I hope it make sit easier to understand why I think Rune is so scummy.
P.S. Rune: You still haven't answered the question
TWG has posted and contributed less than him. Same with Oak. And Danni-ish.
He doesn't want someone else to start off, he even says that he'll do it first but he wants to know if other people will do it too, which I can understand since if nobody else will then it suggests people may have a reason for not doing so (e.g. they know something about how names work in the setup so know it's a bad idea).
That wasn't the majority opinion at the time though was it? He was the first to say that. Though not many people had really said a direct opinion on a course of action at that point, if that's what you mean.
Yeah, the "look guys my idea is being used to be productive" stood out to me at the time but I could easily see why he'd just be saying that as town so I didn't think much of it.
But I can see where you're coming from with the "trying to find reasons to lynch someone rather than finding mafia", though I can also see the opposite, depending on the tint/lens I have when I start to read his post. Which tbh makes me think that maybe you're the one trying to find reasons to lynch someone by building from the ground up rather than observing it first and then making the point, but you did say you were trying to look into more unlikely theories so I guess that'd make sense for you to do so. But I guess I have a tendency to favour theories that come from seeing them rather than building them up on your own, because they just seem more reliable to me if you're seen them rather than created it yourself.
His 'we should go after suspicious people' wasn't just him saying it on his own though, I believe it was in response to Unusual_Dude disagreeing with him and saying we shouldn't lynch on countries but instead on suspicious people:
Again, to me, this feels more like you building a theory from the ground up, trying to find something to look into to try to make some kind of case against him rather than coming from you instinctively thinking that, but that's probably just because, to me, it's unnatural to read his post that way because I just didn't get that sense from it. When I read his post again with the lens you provide, I can see where you're coming from, but only when I first put that lens on. So I'm a bit hesitant to buy into the theory, but I can see where you're coming from.
Yeah I can agree on that. At the time I read it as him just wanting to kinda claim the idea, maybe like he felt it was being stolen and he wanted to take credit as a townie, but I can totally see him doing that as Mafia as well.
Yeah I can see that actually.
Yeah, I can see this too. I think that the more I'm reading your post the more I'm putting on the tinted lens and seeing what you mean.
Overall I definitely think Rune is far more likely to be scum than erik but these theories are interesting. I don't really have a solid viewpoint on them, most of my responses ended up just being kind of pointless I guess but oh well.
I could absolutely see them deciding to lynch off Aqua to look proven and then Aqua gives Inf a hard time and pretends to try to get him lynched