Republic - Completed

[Danni122112]

Can everyone stop using the heuristic of "mass claim is bad" and actually think critically about the setup and our options

I did.

I don’t think it’s our best decision this early in the game.

I might be stupid, and wrong but oh well.

Is there any particular explaining posts that you want to quote again that shows why this is such a good idea?

 

[myusername22]

Can everyone stop using the heuristic of "mass claim is bad" and actually think critically about the setup and our options

Some of us have jobs to do instead of working through all the scenarios of a mass claim. Speaking of which, I really need to stop spending so much time following this thread.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

 

[Hunter]

Mass claim has its benefits when used at the right time. I'd like to think now is not the right time.

Aqua what was the thing notty tried to exploit last time?

 

[Aqua]

Yet less so than the alternatives

So why are you against it

Because of the reasons I have given around why we shouldn't go the dictator route until it's safe.

I'm not totally condemning this plan I'm just saying we should wait until we can safely carry it out without risk of a revolutionary victory or mafia exploiting it.

 

[Aqua]

Aqua what was the thing notty tried to exploit last time?

She said in an earlier post about bussing the roleblocker or something icr, but she did have a plan to take advantage of the town strategy she pushed.

 

[Danni122112]

Because of the reasons I have given around why we shouldn't go the dictator route until it's safe.

I'm not totally condemning this plan I'm just saying we should wait until we can safely carry it out without risk of a revolutionary victory or mafia exploiting it.

Is the main issue (in terms of rev) that we might kill of three dicatators, or one of the other win cons?

 

[Hunter]

She said in an earlier post about bussing the roleblocker or something icr, but she did have a plan to take advantage of the town strategy she pushed.

Was this the strategy of having three people partial claim to get town majority on the council?

 

[Aqua]

Was this the strategy of having three people partial claim to get town majority on the council?

that was her strat that she pushed for town yes. Look back thru dude she said it in a post in this thread.

 

[Hunter]

that was her strat that she pushed for town yes. Look back thru dude she said it in a post in this thread.

Ok thanks man

 

[Aqua]

Is the main issue (in terms of rev) that we might kill of three dicatators, or one of the other win cons?

And that dictator night kill doesn't reveal any information meaning we'd have no idea if we were nightkilling purely town or not.

 

[Aqua]

Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim. Nottykitten claim.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I did.

I don’t think it’s our best decision this early in the game.

I might be stupid, and wrong but oh well.

Is there any particular explaining posts that you want to quote again that shows why this is such a good idea?

If you did then what is your reason for going against it

Some of us have jobs to do instead of working through all the scenarios of a mass claim. Speaking of which, I really need to stop spending so much time following this thread.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

That's fine and I dont expect that but those people shouldn't then make arguments based on nothing, they should know that they haven't thought it through for themselves

Mass claim has its benefits when used at the right time. I'd like to think now is not the right time.

Aqua what was the thing notty tried to exploit last time?

Why would you "like to think" that

I'm gonna be away for a bit now

 

[Hunter]

Wait a tic

How about we try a different strategy for this game instead. The gameplan is pretty easy and is mostly about killing off anti-town pretty quickly at the start while we still can:

1) We massclaim.
2) Mafia all claims citizen because CC'ing any other role is complete suicide when we know everyones role. Revo probs will aswell.
3) We'll have a pool of 13 proven(!) town PR's and a pool of 13 unproven citizen claims(of which only 5 are actuall town which makes for a 8/13 chance to hit a non-town). Even if they don't all claim citizen for some reason we can block/murder the CC's to death.
4) Town installs 5 of the claimed town PR's on the council.
5) Council of town PR's elects an unknown dictator so the Mafia won't know who it is untill morning.
6) Both the assassin and dictator use their nightkills to slaughter the citizen claims that night.
7) 4 people die that night, 2 from the citizen pool and 2 from the PR pool(revo + mafia kill. Revo will kill a council member trying to kill the dictator and mafia will kill the assassin. Surprisinly our doctor should live this night as long ass we dont elect our doctor into the council.).
8) During the day 1 person is poisoned and we can also lynch 1 citizen claim. Giving the town essentially more kills than the anti-towns because the anti-towns have 2 nightkills + poison and the town has 2 nightkills + a lynch.
9) At this point the dictator is known and also with 3 citizen claims dead it's extremely likely that we killed 2 anti-town at that point which is really nice because if one of those happens to be the Mafia bus driver or poisoner this game is won. During the evening theres 10 citizen claims left and 11 proven town PR's.
10) Mafia will nightkill the now known dictator using their bus driver + nightkill. Dictator still gets to nightkill another citizen claim.
11) 3 people die at night, 1 from the citizen pool and 2 from the PR pool(toxicologist saves the poisoned person, dictator + probs doctor are now dead). 9 citizen claims left and 9 town PR claims left. We can fairly assume that at this point 2-3 Mafia are dead and atleast one of their strong PR's(bus driver/poisoner). If we're really lucky we kill the revo instead which we ofcourse have a 4/13 chance to do with 4 kills.
12) We can't lynch since dictator is dead so we elect 4 proven town PR's again. We install another dictator and they murder another citizen claim(keep in mind the citizen claim will be roleblocked so that could easely stop a Mafia both the night before and this night).

Where we go from here really isn't that predictable unless we know which anti-town we have killed. If at any point we kill the revo we've practically won as anti-town nightkills go from 2 to 1. If at any point we kill the bus-driver or poisoner our advantage grows alot aswell. Most of this plan is just rng/luck on who we nightkill but I give it a good 8/13 (62%) chance for the town to win this.

Jesus Christ, your math is fucked.

The 62% chance only applies to the initial first lynch.

For each town-sided kill required to end the game via this method, if we're going by chance, the probability would be as follows:

8/13 * 7/12 * 6/11 * 5/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/1287
This is about a 0.07777% chance of getting an antitown correctly every kill.

 

[Hunter]

Wait a tic


Jesus Christ, your math is fucked.

The 62% chance only applies to the initial first lynch.

For each town-sided kill required to end the game via this method, if we're going by chance, the probability would be as follows:

8/13 * 7/12 * 6/11 * 5/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/1287
This is about a 0.07777% chance of getting an antitown correctly every kill.

Actually I typed one too many sevens so it's even less.

 

[Aqua]

Wait a tic


Jesus Christ, your math is fucked.

The 62% chance only applies to the initial first lynch.

For each town-sided kill required to end the game via this method, if we're going by chance, the probability would be as follows:

8/13 * 7/12 * 6/11 * 5/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/1287
This is about a 0.07777% chance of getting an antitown correctly every kill.

Notty's track record is good at maths thus she's trying to exploit people who aren't, thus mafia.

Notty killed.

 

[Aqua]

Notty killed.

Notty is mafia*

(my brain just idek'd)

 

[Mooglie]

i mean even with a mass claim happening the dictator kills aren't gonna be 100% random, there's gonna be general reads + info from other PRs to assist

tbh idk if i'm 100% sold on mass claim + autocracy yet (i mean mass claims are essentially the best way to go any mafia game ever but in this game i should really think more past that!!) but i feel like people are turning up their noses too quickly just because it has (obvious) risk attached but no other plan presented so far really compares to it

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Wait a tic


Jesus Christ, your math is fucked.

The 62% chance only applies to the initial first lynch.

For each town-sided kill required to end the game via this method, if we're going by chance, the probability would be as follows:

8/13 * 7/12 * 6/11 * 5/10 * 4/9 * 3/8 * 2/7 * 1/6 = 1/1287
This is about a 0.07777% chance of getting an antitown correctly every kill.

And what's the probability with the 26 pool as opposed to the 13

 

[Mooglie]

but no other plan presented so far really compares to it

i mean i still see benefits in the plan from last game, especially when the 'exploit' (i really wouldnt use that word to describe it but) revolved around protester 100% roleblocking someone but from the role info spread sheet it says '[BCOLOR=transparent]Under [/BCOLOR][BCOLOR=transparent]democracy: [/BCOLOR][BCOLOR=transparent]each night, you may [/BCOLOR][BCOLOR=transparent]suppress [/BCOLOR][BCOLOR=transparent]a representative’s night action.' (guess im stuck in this font now) but key word being may there, but still its a powerful role to just keep having to submit no action every night[/BCOLOR]

 

[Hunter]

Nottykitten your plan is purely based on luck in basically every step and is in no way a smart play

a couple of specific points i'd like to argue


this won't happen


this makes every single one of the town pr's an instant maf target


this is very much dependent on what the maf will prioritise and unless you're maf, there is no way you can guarantee it

not to mention that in order to avoid having their kill blocked by the doc, they probably won't go for the obvious targets


i think it's relatively likely that you're maf again and simply knew you couldn't suggest the same strat again as you did the last time

Ender made good points

 

[Hunter]

I think we should do the plan from last game with the majority council to start

 

[Aqua]

I'm currently confident that notty is mafia followed by very strong vibes on inf.

Waiting on a response from notty which probably won't come for a fair bit as she's tweaking her perfect response and any follow up responses in a google doc or something like she does when she gets called out (prime example Jolt & Claire's game)

 

[Hunter]

have notty and inf as the other two nonconfirmed town reps and lynch them off if you like

 

[Scrable]

Can everyone stop using the heuristic of "mass claim is bad" and actually think critically about the setup and our options

mass claim is bad

...at least on day 1 it is. Oh great a database error
I would rather wait and let other make their move...
Although... I will do that anyway.

Yes, I am tired.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Ender made good points

And what about the counters to those points

I'm currently confident that notty is mafia followed by very strong vibes on inf.

Waiting on a response from notty which probably won't come for a fair bit as she's tweaking her perfect response and any follow up responses in a google doc or something like she does when she gets called out (prime example Jolt & Claire's game)

Aqua your whole argument is that this idea could go wrong

The alternatives coul go wrong and literally, as far as I tell, have a higher chance to do that

I get the concern of a hidden loophole but I've been over it several times as I said earlier and I didn't find anything and I'm sure you can do the same if you want

The dictator concern is valid of course and it's the major drawback to this plan but how are we realistically going to win otherwise

To me it seems like "the only way to escape the lava flooding from the volcano is to jump, but what if we fall!! Let's just stay here and burn to death because jumping "feels bad" and it's mildly frustrating

If you can think of an alternate idea that would work then I'll be all for i obviously