[GAME OVER] Formula Mafia

Infected_alien8_

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1. Basically that tells me that her actions (at least on d0) dont have a lot of rhyme or reason to them - at least to the extent where she would get called out as a potential 3p this early on more than one occasion.
2. I get the sense that when she does talk about stuff on topic, it's more fluff than anything. For example, the question she asked earlier and asked for us to react to isnt particularly helpful in deciding whether or not to lynch somebody. Rather its asking us to indirectly analyze how we think Ltin would design this game.

No u ????

I think your aura is a dark teal right now.
1. i dont understand how you made that connection and this concerns me slightly, seems like you backed off just because you felt you should rather than you were actually satisfied with her response since i dont see how duffies response explains why shes being offtopic and i dont think what you say here explains it either unless im completely misunderstanding something

2. mis wasnt like that though was she?

Except for some reason I'm being considering a locked-in lynch.

I can't argue against a predetermined tunnel. Basically I get put into a position where I have to self-prez on Moog for better or worse.
whos considered you a lock-in lynch though

and yes you can argue it and you have done, most of my sus went off from you last night, im still just weary of you taking things a bit more extreme than usual but dont want to lynch you anymore, youve seemed townie for a while to me now

idk why youre so convinced im making this tunnel up and its all to fit a narrative or whatever though?
Mars, I know I'm getting meta when I mention this, and it's harsh, and I hate to ask, but---

Does this seriously always happen, or are you WIFOM?

If this happens all the time, why don't you find ways to counteract that, such as not appearing so vulnerable? I think people legit vote you, seeing you as the "weakest link"...

I don't want to lose you so soon, in such a negative way to go :/
i dont think hes the weakest link at all and i dont see him as vulnerable either! i just found him suspicious

And here is why this push is actual bullshit: a core pillar of it is Inf's meta read which is objectively false, yet it's being taken without question. This is how my D0/D1 play has been, and if anything I've gotten more mild over time. I've never been a fan of the memes and that's just how I am as a player. I can't argue against an off-base meta read that's essentially fueled by player bias by the end of the day; I'm in a box where, in theory I now have to call out everyone who meme'd or wasn't being serious, or I have to call out no-one at all--which then means I have no unique thoughts. Notty and Skel joining an easy mislynch should be a red flag and it's being glossed over.
i dont really get why you keep saying this tbh, i just wanted to know why it was you only called out skele for it and not anyone else, im not saying you have to in order for me to townread you

I'm in a position where me arguing a no-lynch realistically won't work because of the way the voting pattern is currently moving
can you elaborate on why not

Lynching on D0 is never a good idea unless there is a clear-as-day scumslip, and that's not the case. D0 is for RVS and grabbing info; 9/10 times D0 lynches blunder into a mislynch and it's an early setback. The only D0 lynch I remember was Doomed Cruise (I think?) where nitasu literally gave away their anti-town role.
i don't agree, the reason day 0 lynches dont work well imo is since theyre the first lynch of the game and a lot of the time lynches get better after the first lynch since you have meaty discussion to analyse

if we nl today we're just shifting the mislynch to tomorrow instead most likely, unless a PR comes forward with valuable info that incriminates someone, which barely ever happens so early and most likely shouldn't

How do I become argumentative, the "weakest link," and a quick mislynch? I seriously don't understand this; I've just being trying to move discussion, and then to argue my case. This sudden swing against me is so blatant and it's just being passed as OK.

Considering your entire play has been lockstep with Skel, this take is not surprising whatsoever.
how has their entire play been lockstep with skel, what does that mean?

Inf's push is disingenuous, but realistically that lynch never happens D0. IMO that leaves narrowing the field down to non-contributors = Duffie, Skel, hk, Skooma. And that then assumes that it is equally realistic to be comfortable with any of those lynches, when without D1 flips there's nothing AI about any of that group that distinguishes one as scum over the other.

The closest option other than me in terms of current voting is Moog, which was motivated by Alisha; they've since moved on. I don't even know if any of the remaining votes on that slot are actually genuine, and the same question about comfort comes up re: moving on a lynch there.
why is my push disingenuous? and why can't you lynch me d0 realistically?

Flips/info from night actions. D0 is a blank slate with none of that extra stuff to work with.
flips from nights arent usually that useful in lynching scum though since scum wouldnt choose targets to kill which would incriminate them (hopefully)

and info from roles is rare d1, the most likely form of info we can get is from day 0 wagons, which can obv only happen if we lynch (or at least try to lynch) someone

im just gonna say to me this seems like a similar situation to what happend to me last time when inf was questioning me/pushing me in that other game and while i did say earlier that i dont really have any reads, infs whole big post about mars and voting him did feel off to me, maybe its just me seeing him push on someone again for idk something quite small. so i guess minor maf read on inf and minor town read of mars i suppose but im not confident voting either
why didnt you say this at the time then scum

I feel that he's perfectly justified to be in "panic mode," but I don't see it that way. I see it as someone shouting into the void about a hopeless situation begging anyone to listen and understand. I'm totally in Mars' corner on this one.
same but i also think hes panicking since he only had 3 votes yet considered himself being likely to be lynched, so he's blowing things out of proportion imo which is usually a side effect of panicking

i dont think panicking like that = scum though

i dont think inf is scum y e t? but who knows
silence scum

my lynch is being regarded as a certainty when there's no reason for it to be.
but its not is it? where?

If I was in panic mode, I would have self-prez voted on Moog or pushed an NL out of the gate. I'm not going to deny I'm frustrated since my lynch is being regarded as a certainty when there's no reason for it to be. There are certain charges (i.e. being argumentative) that don't bear fruit considering I have to argue for myself. I'm not going to roll over and accept a sketchy wagon.



Example: cherry-picking.

Context of the post was that no lynch is comfortable here despite me not liking memes. There's nothing separating the scum memers from town memers, so it's currently pointless. But yeah, I stand by not liking nom-participation, be it early or late game, especially when serious discussion is occurring.

First five or even ten pages of memes happens, but I don't see a good reason for it to continue if voting is becoming contentious.
how is that cherry-picking though, shes just being sarcastic about not contributing to day 0, it wasnt a point against you right?

Additionally, while I don't have a very good profile on you as a player, I'm seeing you acting very differently from last game - particularly how you appear to have different expectations of others and dont appear to be approaching your arguments from a logical standpoint.
could you elaborate on these two points please (different expectations of others + not approaching arguments from a logical standpoint)

That's exactly the opposite of what I said; I said I don't want to self-prez on Moog, and being pushed to this lynch here makes that appear as the only option. Scum want either of us dead, and depending on how voting proceeds, both are forced to accept a mislynch either way.
bold of you to assume oog isnt scum

This push essentially pins a mislynch on either choice,
seriously though these are bold assumptions

This push essentially pins a mislynch on either choice, since the wagons remain close enough where voting can swing rapidly.
weird assumption to make as well, can you elaborate on why you think theyd remain close? relying on your scumteam to keep things even are you???

Moog dying can be made my fault if I self-prez, which secures a mislynch the next day.
nobody should, and i highly doubt a majority would, be lynching you for self-prezing, its the towniest thing to do in that moment and i think most people understand that!

you know that the panic mode was brought up as a way to defend you, right

your insistence on arguing about it even though staying silent on this would have been much more favorable for your survival is convincing me you're inno
why is it convincing you hes inno when youre not even sure if he realized the panic thing was defending him though (since why else would you ask him in the first sentence)

I meant that no player lynch was viable. No-lynch is a more credible option. If a vote is desired, it should be pushed into the those currently getting involved in the wagons.
as in if youre sus of someone, it should ideally be on someone whos already voting someone else? if thats what you meant, why?

Ps, inffy was more fixatied on your reads lists the other game than Mars was
she's talking about when mars said giving a reads list wasnt a good idea btw

for me i just said i thought the reads were fake (but i was scum so i was lying)
an inf lynch would be pretty revealing imo

a lot of people followed his tunnel on you
revealing how though

if im town what does that tell you about the people who followed me and if im scum what does that tell you instead

also only like 3 people followed it
vote HK

Let's get some takes out of you

FWIW Okx hasn't been in-thread yet.
okx consistently forgets to play mafia games he signs up to so this isnt at all surprising

i disagree, duffie pointed out something that made sense - mars set up the narrative for mislynches depending on if he is lynched today - whether that's a scummy thing he does or he's just bitter is up in the air but im more in favor of him just being bitter
what do you mean here, why would him being bitter explain what he talked about (not 100% sure what youre referencing)

Now that you mention it what Inffy did to Mars is pretty similar to what Inffy did to me last game in the sense that he stuck me in a corner where I didn't have much room to argue outside of emotional appeals.
i said your reads felt fake which you couldnt easily argue against no but my points on mars arent just based on feelings theyre based on meta which he could disprove if he wanted to by quoting other games but i dont imagine he can be bothered but he could still do it!

FWIW that could just be distancing. But also FWIW Alisha's been jumping through a fair amount of susses already and scum doesn't flop around like that, I buy the confusion as genuine.
why do you think that

Fair enough. My counter being that nks illuminate D0/early game behavior and provide insight on how scum operates depending on who is bumped off. Number of kills/lack of kills helps in closed set-up b/c it determines potential 3P elements, power roles, etc. Helps to understand the set-up better.
none of this will make it significantly more likely that we lynch mafia that day though

its incredibly unlikely a night kill choice will lead back to a mafia person as a suspect, and its incredibly unlikely that knowing there are multiple killers or a doctor or whatever will give read on any individual in the game (maybe if someone slipped that they were the second killer during a discussion of it for example but thats ofc unlikely to happen)

The caveat I've mentioned is that if a lynch is what is going to happen, it should be directed at wagoners/observers.
why

No Lynch is for the betterment of Day Zero, but you have claim that no lynches are worse than randomly lynching...

That's literally Russian Roulette, dear. We could very well lose a townie.

With 14 players, that means that 7 mafia would win the game already, so we would have to have 1~6 mafia.

If it were 1 mafia, I think the game would be unique, but too luck-based, so mayhaps 2~6 mafia.

6 mafia would be easy for mafia to win, too, so let us average it to 4 mafia, as the possible team.


4 ÷ 14 = 28.5%

So we have a 28.5% of hitting mafia, but a 71.5% to hit someone townie... The odds aren't very well in our favor, with townie numbers so high...
the odds are like that for the next several days though, we lose once the odds go even equal to each other

you have to take risks of possibly mislynching in mafia if you want to move forward with reads before its too late, since you need the discussion/behaviour that come with lynches to get a decent chance of decent reads, except for PRs who shouldnt be outing until later on anyway and it'd be too late if we only lynched once cop outed most likely

But it is extremely likely to get a death Night One... How is killing someone at random on Day Zero ever a good thing? :<
since we get information about everyone's decisions/behaviour in that lynch, which we wouldn't get if we just waited for n1!

Question 4: Is Alisha being suspicious to you? Please reply with your explanation.
✔/❌/❓
no since nothing shes done has made me suspicious of her and i think shes town

Biggest difference imo is last game as town pr, hip took charge and was active in discussion, that also being in a closed set-up. This is lazier gameplay within that context.
hips completely different this game, idk if its alignment relevant yet but his energy is a lot different to his usual self which is another reason why im sus of him

realistically the real mafia team is inf notty and boo and some random other person uhhh sure why not hk thanks and goodnight
scummy post from a scummy person

tbh

unvote
vote hip


your energy is just way too like

trying to be edgy (but not edgy but i cant think of another word for it)

it's too different for me to think its just a different PR role than usual and I can't think of any other factor that it could be

but maybe this is you being maf trying to stay cool when youre panicking inside and that makes sense to me and so thats my conclusion so far

if you want a true reason as to why alisha is supicious go back to that 'im so confused' quote that someone picked out (boo? i think) then linked it back to a previous game where alisha was scum and then her attitude has sort of 180-d since there since it was being picked up on as a scummy behaviour (i think she wasnt acting confused before the quote tho so idk if id really call it a 180)

but this reaction test stuff is just bad
how had her attitude changed though

i mean i already said i think inf was a bit susp for his big post on you. it seemed nitpicking and it just seemed weird to vote you on such a small thing but it is day 0 so i guess one vote on someone isnt that big a deal.
but i did the same thing when i was playing for town two games ago (i was 3p but trying to lynch maf as you saw) so why is that sus to you when i did it to you before and wasnt maf
You know, on a side note, more and more people have been bringing up wacky Third Party roles as being a thing... Before this whole debarkle.

Are some of you more aware of something I'm not? Did Ltin ever mention that he likes to have wacky or weird or chaotic Third Party roles?
???

why does this keep COMING UP

you were even involved in this coming up when it shouldnt have done and rated my post agree when i talked about how it shouldnt have come up!

nobody mentioned third party roles about this game, the only people who did were you and stranger and both of you were talking about past games!

i was slightly confused too since someone brought it up in respect to last game (party at the machine where there were a lot of 3p, i think stranger brought it up?) but i think ive seen 2? other people bring them up in respect to this game but i think they may have been referring to closed setups in general
??? no they havent! literally the only times its been brought up is when people talked about last games or when people misinterpreted people talking about last games and said what duffie just said
yes because i know what my role is on the other end
but notty wouldnt know your role on the other end even if shes town so why does that change whether shes sus or not


I think it is time for me to put my money where I want it.
give to me pls

i sus moog a little still and hip, both off of vibes



boooooooooo
same

So you can't call someone scum for vibing, but you can call scum on others based on vibes? This is a contradiction.
how though, shes saying its not reasonable for hip to say 'ur scum cuz you vibe me scum'

If anything, I find vibes from others to be used as a read in the future, but Day Zero is so full of memes that it is mostly useless.
ive seen plenty of scum get caught on day 0 and i completely disagree that day 0 is useless just because people are memeing!

I don't play to kill townies, I play to save townies from death.

If a death is inevitable, which Night One is almost always guaranteed due to doctors and jailers and mafia all targeting at random, we should simply leave it at 1 death.
playing like that will end with all townies dead in the long run most likely, youve gotta kill a couple to save the rest sometimes!

A death, posts from the victim, and correlations to the victim.
name one time where a n1 death has led to a mafia member, where the mafia werent new to mafia!

why me


idk how to not be confusing this is frustrating
dont worry i gotchu and im not confused about what youre saying

i do disagree with your reaction test thing though, i dont find it weird alisha would question 'is this also a reaction test' after youd just reaction tested her since even if im town, if someone just tested me and then told me im being defensive, im gonna wonder 'hm is this a test too', so i can relate to that and could see alisha doing it as town

im not confused i just dont know how to explain myself to people
dont worry i gotchu x2

Firstly, that would be very unlucky, due to us likely having one doctor due to small playercount, and the fact mafia likely wouldn't have known you were one before Night One or Day One...

But I would confer to your postings, people voting against you, the people defending you, and the people ignoring you.

The things that wouldn't matter, from a Day Zero perspective, are your votes and susses... Because, being a (hypothetical) doctor, you wouldn't have any info on anyone just yet.
so if someone voted notty the doctor, or defended/ignored them, what conclusions would you draw

and are these conclusions only able to be made because you know nottys alignment/role since i predict the answer is no if there are any!

Probably I should pay more while backreading tsk

Anyways bye
yes pay me like duffie is
 
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Infected_alien8_

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That there is a dumbtell.



You pop in right after a vote is placed on you and essentially gloss over all previous discussion, then leave the door open for voting on any consensus option. There is no town mindset in this.
theres a town-who-doesnt-read-much-and-doesnt-care--that-much-who's-lynched mindset in this though, which is pretty normal for skele
Boo trying to align themselves behind Mars, I don't like this
shes just trying to get to jupiter

MarsKid is working for the betterment of MarsKid regardless of his alignment

so no
huh where'd you get that impression from
but some of the stuff he says sounds towny and is useful
what stuff sounded towny/useful

I was implying that they quickly turned after your post.

You make a fair assumption though. ?
what assumption are you talking about im confused

oh it left
lol are you talking about duffies signature (yes turns out you were)

duff seems more concerned with the leaderboard then the actual game. moog feeling townie, per usual.mars started questioning skel and I for being inactive very early on, while others seemed to be suspicious of them as well. i personally dont agree for going after someone for day 0 inactivity, but i could see where they are coming from. on the flip side they could be pushing to drive suspicion away from themselves, but thats sorta a weak argument in itself. inf had some vibes on hip i guess, dont have much of a vibe on either. boo seems to be vocal. still skele's aura is defensive to me, then again iirc boo said thats just their personality reading back, even tho they had only a few posts, it makes be a big uneasy. notty is making very short to the point remarks, i like it. tim hasnt seem to contribute much, feel free to prove me wrong. mars aura is a bit aggresive imo, usually that is a slight scum vibe, then again havent played much with mars that i can remember. okx and alisha are town i wont elaborate. while tstranger has been active, i have nothing on stranger, neutral aura.

enjoy the shite layout of this post.
okx is because youre on the same team as him and teams do mean something!

lol

name your favorite argument I've made
my favourite was when you asked alisha to elaborate when she said no (wow duffie chose this one too)

honestly nottys posts have been 10/10 content this game ive thoroughly enjoyed them

--

ok im finally caught up here are my reads

ltin: good host
hip: vibes scummy, weird energy/attitude that i cant think how to explain other than being panicky scum rn
stranger: vibes townie but waiting for some clarifications above
notty: depends if their intentions are as i think they are or not
moog: vibes scum
hk: vibes town
alisha: think shes town
tim: feels town but weird how he agreed with my points on mars earlier but then suddenly says hes totally in mars' corner, could you explain what happened there pls Timdood3
skele: could see him as both town and scum, wouldnt mind lynching him, happy hes checking the thread this game though
mars: vibes town to me now, i feel like my push was blown way out of proportion but ik ive been told in the past that i can come across very aggressive when fmpov im just casually interrogating someone, i never wanted to push mars to death asap i just wanted to voice my concerns and see what he had to say and voted him since i vote for who i sus most since thats who id want to lynch once the deadline comes, out of anyone (i fully support a lynch not a no lynch so even if my #1 suspect is barely a suspect ill still support them dying). still slightly concerned about the extremeties of their behaviour and that probably wont fade away unless someone can be bothered to prove me wrong by going back to last game and checking the game there (ill do it eventually but not today)
dess: he checked the thread but didnt join :( i miss you dess im sorry for tunneling on you
boo: vibes town but also vibes very similarly to how they did in the first game, not sure what to make of that since they got caught early on in the first game so you'd think theyd have tried to change their behaviour, but if theyre town then that means their behaviour in their scum game was really well replicated by her as mafia, and no idea how good she is at that so idk. neutral read overall id say, wouldnt mind lynching her but feels like itd end badly somehow
skoo: too inactive for me to say much really
duffie: feels town/relaxed

ive got too many townreads

but yeah in case ltin didnt see it in the middle of my post im voting hip now, id be down to vote hip or moog, and kinda ok but reluctant to vote skele and boo
 
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why didnt you say this at the time then scum
it was so minor that i just didnt think it was worth mentioning but over time its grown into something bigger

your energy is just way too like

trying to be edgy (but not edgy but i cant think of another word for it)

it's too different for me to think its just a different PR role than usual and I can't think of any other factor that it could be

but maybe this is you being maf trying to stay cool when youre panicking inside and that makes sense to me and so thats my conclusion so far
cant really respond/refute this so

but i did the same thing when i was playing for town two games ago (i was 3p but trying to lynch maf as you saw) so why is that sus to you when i did it to you before and wasnt maf
you refer to past game again and i will push you off the side of the road. i do not have the memory to remember this and im too lazy to go back and check if this is true. all i remember is either last game or the game before that i felt that you were reaching for me and its basically the same situation here idk if this was when you were 3p or mafia but either way you anti town so seeing as you are acting like this now makes me suspect you even more
 

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how had her attitude changed though
since she does not appear to radiate confusion at any point since (i dont even remember where the quote is from i just remember that someone quoted the quote so the quote exists)
??? no they havent! literally the only times its been brought up is when people talked about last games or when people misinterpreted people talking about last games and said what duffie just said
disagree
moog: vibes scum
disagree
 

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btw i vibe inf as mafia now but that might be because im outraged that he's vibing me as scum but realistically get the only person to have 100% accurate reads (eventually) on him out of the way would make sense!
 

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it was so minor that i just didnt think it was worth mentioning but over time its grown into something bigger
seems unlikely, i think if you saw me doing x and x reminded you of what i did to you as scum, your conclusion wouldnt be that it was too minor to mention

in reality i think you held back saying it since you didnt think itd go well which is a SCUM mindset

and then said it once you felt comfortable saying it since others had started to sus me

you refer to past game again and i will push you off the side of the road. i do not have the memory to remember this and im too lazy to go back and check if this is true. all i remember is either last game or the game before that i felt that you were reaching for me and its basically the same situation here idk if this was when you were 3p or mafia but either way you anti town so seeing as you are acting like this now makes me suspect you even more
i was 3p but working for town so that i wouldnt get lynched which is why i gave boo a bomb
 

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seems unlikely, i think if you saw me doing x and x reminded you of what i did to you as scum, your conclusion wouldnt be that it was too minor to mention

in reality i think you held back saying it since you didnt think itd go well which is a SCUM mindset

and then said it once you felt comfortable saying it since others had started to sus me
idk what to say then when i first read the post i didnt think of it too much but as time went on it bugged me more and it BLOSSOMED but whatever i guess

but again your votes seem so weird this game, like you are just throwing them out more liberally especially seeing as it is day 0 i swear in past games you would question people more before actually deciding to put your vote on them but this game its just been two big posts on me and mars it just gives doesnt give me a scum hunting vibe.
 

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idk what to say then when i first read the post i didnt think of it too much but as time went on it bugged me more and it BLOSSOMED but whatever i guess

but again your votes seem so weird this game, like you are just throwing them out more liberally especially seeing as it is day 0 i swear in past games you would question people more before actually deciding to put your vote on them but this game its just been two big posts on me and mars it just gives doesnt give me a scum hunting vibe.
i mean tbh i do think im usually more careful with where i put my votes than i have been this game, dunno why, maybe im more like this as town idk its been a while since i was town

but like if i vote someone like i said thats not me closing the case and condemning you to death, im putting it there as a placeholder for when the deadline comes so that my votes always on my #1 suspect

but in your case im more than happy for you to die before the deadline <3
 

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why is it convincing you hes inno when youre not even sure if he realized the panic thing was defending him though (since why else would you ask him in the first sentence)
maybe my language was off but the way he phrased it convinced me he was arguing with anything, even stuff in favor of his situation - hence the inno read
revealing how though

if im town what does that tell you about the people who followed me and if im scum what does that tell you instead

also only like 3 people followed it
3 people is enough for a team - if town then im gonna be looking at the people who voted mars + mars

if scum then mars sounds inno and some of the early votes are more likely to be inno as scum don't vote quickly together some of the time

i didnt really think that vote through tho ive moved on to better options
what do you mean here, why would him being bitter explain what he talked about (not 100% sure what youre referencing)
because from what ive seen he takes being lynched personally - so while what duffie said about him guaranteeing another mislynch makes sense, im also weighing it with how personal mars takes the accusations against him
but notty wouldnt know your role on the other end even if shes town so why does that change whether shes sus or not
that was in reference to when i said its different when notty votes me with 0 reason because i know what my role is on the other end - vs what happens when notty random votes someone else
 

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if town then im gonna be looking at the people who voted mars + mars
why though, why does me being town make it any more likely that others voting mars and mars himself is scum

3 people is enough for a team - if town then im gonna be looking at the people who voted mars + mars

if scum then mars sounds inno and some of the early votes are more likely to be inno as scum don't vote quickly together some of the time
don't those contradict themselves though

but yeah i see what you mean about me flipping scum = mars and his voters prob town

because from what ive seen he takes being lynched personally - so while what duffie said about him guaranteeing another mislynch makes sense, im also weighing it with how personal mars takes the accusations against him
sorry im still confused, could you explain it another way

that was in reference to when i said its different when notty votes me with 0 reason because i know what my role is on the other end - vs what happens when notty random votes someone else
oh ok i see