EscapeRemastered Mafia: Economy of Madness [Day 3]

[Infected_alien8_]

sessy
hk
skele

I've 0 idea if it's relevant to whatever nonsense you and Inf are talking about, I was just talking about what Unu said

basically aqua was saying that twg flipping mafioso meant that the chance of all 3 mafia being mafioso was massively supported

and i was saying that was wrong and dangerous to believe

 

[Infected_alien8_]

sessy
hk
skele

basically aqua was saying that twg flipping mafioso meant that the chance of all 3 mafia being mafioso was massively supported

and i was saying that was wrong and dangerous to believe

oops ignore those three names that was me listing people i was considering lynching today

 

[Aqua]

I've 0 idea if it's relevant to whatever nonsense you and Inf are talking about, I was just talking about what Unu said

Yea unu was talking about what I was talking about. Since we don't know the outcome behind the doors - I don't see how the probability would change beyond 1/number of remaining doors every time one opened.

 

[Mooglie]

oops ignore those three names that was me listing people i was considering lynching today

i appreciate not being on there OwO

 

[Infected_alien8_]

i appreciate not being on there OwO

youre integral to the Plantm

 

[Nottykitten]

Yea unu was talking about what I was talking about. Since we don't know the outcome behind the doors - I don't see how the probability would change beyond 1/number of remaining doors every time one opened.

I'm not a statistician either but you can't just say it's 'more likely' that it's 3 Mafioso's now that we know it's not 0. The chance hasn't changed and is exactly the same.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

Well let's do some maths...

Spoiler: maths..

Assuming it is 50% chance for mafioso, 50% chance maf PR

Before 1 mafioso revealed:
3 maf PRs: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 12,5% chance
2 maf PRs+ 1 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C2 = 0,125 * 3 = 37,5% chance
1maf PR: 1 mafiosos: (0,5^3)*3C1 = 0,125 * 3 = 37,5% chance
3 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 12,5% chance

1 mafioso is revealed:
(1 mafioso) + 2 maf PRs: (0,5^2)*2C2 = 0,25 = 25% chance
(1 mafioso) + 1 mafioso + 1 maf PR: (0,5^2)*2C1 = 0,25 * 2 = 50% chance
(1 mafioso) + 2 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 25% chance

So the possibility changes will be:

3 maf PR -> no longer possible
2 maf PR, 1 mafioso -> chance decreases after 1 mafioso revealed
1 maf PR, 2 mafioso -> chance increases after 1 mafioso revealed
3 mafiosos -> chance increases after 1 mafioso revealed

Although we will not know how much they increase/decrease since we wouldn't know the possibilities

 

[Mooglie]

youre integral to the Plantm

not really other than doing it on future days
well actually since sessy claims she has 3 now i guess i am since im on the 2 slot

 

[Unusual_Dood]

I'm not a statistician either but you can't just say it's 'more likely' that it's 3 Mafioso's now that we know it's not 0. The chance hasn't changed and is exactly the same.

The problem with the thought process is that it isn't randomly determined in the first place. Otherwise the assumption should be right.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

i think these people arent mafia (could be 3p but ive not got any real reason to believe it)
aqua
notty

these people are distributors so we can find out what their items do anyway:
unu
stranger

this person is integral to the plan:
oog

so then the lynchables become
hk
skele
sessy

hk's claim is fine?? his behaviour is fine??

skele's claim could easily be a maf one where he gets some coins if the maf team can direct the lynches onto a specific person and so they can get more stuff from the shop/bid items from town. his behaviour is fine so far

sessy's claim is the most unlikely to be true since tim not specifying the qualifiers for the kareoke thing is slightly difficult to believe but not impossible, also their resistance to claiming their name didnt make any sense but idk if they truly believed it did or not but i doubt it, and also the role just seems way too dificult to achieve but i can see tim thinking it would be a fun addition

so i think out of them all sessy has the highest chance of being scum

not really other than doing it on future days
well actually since sessy claims she has 3 now i guess i am since im on the 2 slot

i feel like if you die i dont get any money

 

[Infected_alien8_]

i feel like if you die i dont get any money

actually i guess i shouldnt believe this flavour wise

 

[Mooglie]

i feel like if you die i dont get any money

i doubt it since your donation box is already set up and stuff in the flavour but idk

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Unusual_Dood why did you trust twg yesterday and not notty?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

vote sessy

 

[Aqua]

Well let's do some maths...

Spoiler: maths..

Assuming it is 50% chance for mafioso, 50% chance maf PR

Before 1 mafioso revealed:
3 maf PRs: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 12,5% chance
2 maf PRs+ 1 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C2 = 0,125 * 3 = 37,5% chance
1maf PR: 1 mafiosos: (0,5^3)*3C1 = 0,125 * 3 = 37,5% chance
3 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 12,5% chance

1 mafioso is revealed:
(1 mafioso) + 2 maf PRs: (0,5^2)*2C2 = 0,25 = 25% chance
(1 mafioso) + 1 mafioso + 1 maf PR: (0,5^2)*2C1 = 0,25 * 2 = 50% chance
(1 mafioso) + 2 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 25% chance

So the possibility changes will be:

3 maf PR -> no longer possible
2 maf PR, 1 mafioso -> chance decreases after 1 mafioso revealed
1 maf PR, 2 mafioso -> chance increases after 1 mafioso revealed
3 mafiosos -> chance increases after 1 mafioso revealed

Although we will not know how much they increase/decrease since we wouldn't know the possibilities

Oh ok cool, I didn't realise 1 maf pr 2 mafioso increased as well, that's interesting.

but yea

I'm not a statistician either but you can't just say it's 'more likely' that it's 3 Mafioso's now that we know it's not 0. The chance hasn't changed and is exactly the same.

My reasoning is barely based on stats anyway inf just shifted the argument into questioning whether my maths was right or not, which after big brain Unu came thru, was off in regards to the percentile increase but was right that it did become more likely.

That being said my reasoning is almost entirely based on the same reasoning I had before TWG was lynched. We have no town Prs, mafia have aprivate shop and can out bid us in our own auction where (I assume) we get our town prs.

in regards to balancing it seems very unlikely mafia would have prs and now I know that my theory has some physical evidence - as wenow know vanilla mafia do exist - I'm pretty confident in it.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Oh ok cool, I didn't realise 1 maf pr 2 mafioso increased as well, that's interesting.

but yea



My reasoning is barely based on stats anyway inf just shifted the argument into questioning whether my maths was right or not, which after big brain Unu came thru, was off in regards to the percentile increase but was right that it did become more likely.

That being said my reasoning is almost entirely based on the same reasoning I had before TWG was lynched. We have no town Prs, mafia have aprivate shop and can out bid us in our own auction where (I assume) we get our town prs.

in regards to balancing it seems very unlikely mafia would have prs and now I know that my theory has some physical evidence - as wenow know vanilla mafia do exist - I'm pretty confident in it.

why were you suspicious of me earlier then if thats what you thought before twg was lynched

 

[Unusual_Dood]

Unusual_Dood why did you trust twg yesterday and not notty?

For weak it was the claim in comparison to other people's claim. I found his more believeable. And why would I trust Notty?

 

[Unusual_Dood]

For weak it was the claim in comparison to other people's claim. I found his more believeable. And why would I trust Notty?

and to clarify, I didn't 'trust' him, I just found other options more preferable.

 

[Aqua]

why were you suspicious of me earlier then if thats what you thought before twg was lynched

In regards to one of the auctioneers being scum? I still entertain that theory, altho I suppose it's less likely - could still be that the 3rd item put up for auction is bought from the black market or is put up between the mafia team together as no where does Tim explain where the items come from.

 

[Nottykitten]

Well let's do some maths...

Spoiler: maths..

Assuming it is 50% chance for mafioso, 50% chance maf PR

Before 1 mafioso revealed:
3 maf PRs: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 12,5% chance
2 maf PRs+ 1 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C2 = 0,125 * 3 = 37,5% chance
1maf PR: 1 mafiosos: (0,5^3)*3C1 = 0,125 * 3 = 37,5% chance
3 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 12,5% chance

1 mafioso is revealed:
(1 mafioso) + 2 maf PRs: (0,5^2)*2C2 = 0,25 = 25% chance
(1 mafioso) + 1 mafioso + 1 maf PR: (0,5^2)*2C1 = 0,25 * 2 = 50% chance
(1 mafioso) + 2 mafioso: (0,5^3)*3C3 = 0,125 * 1 = 25% chance

So the possibility changes will be:

3 maf PR -> no longer possible
2 maf PR, 1 mafioso -> chance decreases after 1 mafioso revealed
1 maf PR, 2 mafioso -> chance increases after 1 mafioso revealed
3 mafiosos -> chance increases after 1 mafioso revealed

Although we will not know how much they increase/decrease since we wouldn't know the possibilities

This is assuming the chance of being Mafioso/PR is a 50/50 per person, when it isn't because the roles aren't asigned based on chance but based on Tim's balance. So it's just a 25% for each 4 options at the start. There aren't 3 different combinations for 2 Mafioso's and 1 PR, theres is just 1 which is 2 Mafioso's and 1 PR assigned to 3 abstract people randomly. How they are assigned is irrelevant.

The point im trying to make is that it's not 'more likely' for there to be 3 Mafioso's now respective of the other options. The chance it is vs the chance it isn't is still the same.

Aqua's right though stats aren't really important since its more about what we think would be balanced anyways. I personally think there aren't 3 Mafioso's since that would be lame?

 

[Aqua]

Aqua's right though stats aren't really important since its more about what we think would be balanced anyways. I personally think there aren't 3 Mafioso's since that would be lame?

And you're entitled to that opinion and any reads it causes you to have <3

 

[Unusual_Dood]

The problem with the thought process is that it isn't randomly determined in the first place. Otherwise the assumption should be right.

hence why I made this post

 

[Infected_alien8_]

For weak it was the claim in comparison to other people's claim. I found his more believeable. And why would I trust Notty?

can you elaborate on why you found it more believable

and i guess what im asking about notty is, what made you vote them out of everyone

This is assuming the chance of being Mafioso/PR is a 50/50 per person, when it isn't because the roles aren't asigned based on chance but based on Tim's balance. So it's just a 25% for each 4 options at the start. There aren't 3 different combinations for 2 Mafioso's and 1 PR, theres is just 1 which is 2 Mafioso's and 1 PR assigned to 3 abstract people randomly. How they are assigned is irrelevant.

The point im trying to make is that it's not 'more likely' for there to be 3 Mafioso's now respective of the other options. The chance it is vs the chance it isn't is still the same.

Aqua's right though stats aren't really important since its more about what we think would be balanced anyways. I personally think there aren't 3 Mafioso's since that would be lame?

hey this is what i said!!

except i didnt use any maths like that to justify it i just said "the likelihood of there being 3 mafioso vs 2 mafioso hasnt increased because why would it have" essentially!

 

[Infected_alien8_]

hey this is what i said!!

as in the fact that 3 mafioso isnt increased relative to 2 mafioso

which is also what UNU said earlier (well, he said theres no way to know iirc)

 

[Unusual_Dood]

can you elaborate on why you found it more believable

Didn't think he would have came up with that claim. Although, admittedly I have only seen him fake claim twice.