the way I think of it (so far anyway) is we can lynch, or we can not lynch. And the person could be baddie, or could be goodie. All in all I'd say about a 50-50 shot at it. (no real calc done here, someone may if they wish but this is good enough for this) so we can lynch and the person could be good, in which case the baddie would gain and adv. Or we lynch and the person is bad. Where we gain Adv. Or we don't lynch and the person is good, so we gain adv. Or we don't and the person is baddie, and they get adv. So this early in, it's almost ensured that at least one goodie will die each night. So with that, if we happen to lynch a baddie then it's still tied up at the end of the night, if not in baddie favor because we can assume that 2 might die (at least this early) however if we lynch one of our own, then 3 have died in one "match" (I also consider the hooker, and drunk, and vigilante and what not to be baddie cause they can harm the goodies.) so if we do nothing, we still lose, but it's either gonna be less harmful or more harmful depending on the lynching. With so little evidence, I'd say it's more likely that a random vote will take out a goodie in which case the hit will be more harmful. So thinking about all this I have decided to not lynch until further notice.
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