EscapeRemastered Mafia: Economy of Madness [Day 3]

[Aqua]

meanwhile we seem to have 5 people here (me, stranger, inf, notty, aqua, maybe UNU for 6) so is it better for notty and aqua to quickly bid on items and to quickly lynch sessy so no mafia has the option to outbid on items (this obviouslyassumes notty and/or aqua arent mafia) or to wait to hear what everyone has to say

Assuming notty and inf aren't on the same team maybe notty (as she's pretty suspicious still from yesterday) should donate 4 coins to inf.

That way as long as one of them is townie we'll find out whether both are scum or not.

 

[Mooglie]

The problem with this is that the donations will still fail if said person has coins, but they have less than the totals listed here.

ya but alishas killer should have +10 coins so it should exceed the amount

the added bonus is just if the 2nd mafia member is lying about their coin total and its greater than their donation sum (so thats likely for me, UNU, notty and seeing as me and UNU are probably 2 of the most suspicious right now thats fine, idk how people feel about notty)

 

[Mooglie]

(also do note that this is slightly pointless since if this works inf is 99% dying so it slightly amounts to nothing, but ill get my 1 coin per person who did donate so i can atleast see whether 1 or 2 people are lying, altho that relies on trusting me which apparently people dont

i think its worth doing either way tho)

 

[Infected_alien8_]

it's also weird to have on the mafia team + I'm 90% sure, which was heavily backed up by twg, that mafia are just vanilla mafioso



me and Alisha were just talking about this earlier today, it's LITERALLY always inf.

not really oog's role is useful for mafia to get town to lose their coins if they all donate to one person, if they believe a doc exists (which we prob wouldve if we didnt massclaim), since then maf can kill that person and take all their coins

also why does twg being mafioso make every mafia mafioso

me and Alisha were just talking about this earlier today, it's LITERALLY always inf.

usually hostposting isnt against the rules! and i forgot tim said not to do it this game

the added bonus is just if the 2nd mafia member is lying about their coin total and its greater than their donation sum (so thats likely for me, UNU, notty and seeing as me and UNU are probably 2 of the most suspicious right now thats fine, idk how people feel about notty)

i feel notty is definitely not mafia but i could see them being 3p

 

[Mooglie]

(also do note that this is slightly pointless since if this works inf is 99% dying so it slightly amounts to nothing, but ill get my 1 coin per person who did donate so i can atleast see whether 1 or 2 people are lying, altho that relies on trusting me which apparently people dont

i think its worth doing either way tho)

+ inf dying is slightly ultimately good if its assumed one of the distributors is mafia since then it turns to 50/50

 

[Infected_alien8_]

+ inf dying is slightly ultimately good if its assumed one of the distributors is mafia since then it turns to 50/50

i mean realistically it should be a 50/50 already if you assume that cuz why would maf be able to give PI Contracts unless this is a bastard game!

 

[Aqua]

not really oog's role is useful for mafia to get town to lose their coins if they all donate to one person, if they believe a doc exists (which we prob wouldve if we didnt massclaim), since then maf can kill that person and take all their coins

also why does twg being mafioso make every mafia mafioso

It doesn't I just already thought that to be the case and TWG flipping vanilla maf backs it up massively. I'm sure if we worked out the maths (which obviously is impossible since we can't chart my opinion as a degree of certainty) the standard deviation probably wouldn't reach a 95% yet, so we couldn't consider it a fact. But it's certainly highly probable IMO

 

[Infected_alien8_]

also alisha townread me and she is also an inf-seer

 

[Infected_alien8_]

It doesn't I just already thought that to be the case and TWG flipping vanilla maf backs it up massively. I'm sure if we worked out the maths (which obviously is impossible since we can't chart my opinion as a degree of certainty) the standard deviation probably wouldn't reach a 95% yet, so we couldn't consider it a fact. But it's certainly highly probable IMO

i dont understand this logic

"i believe all maf are mafioso" isnt supported by 1 flipping mafioso

 

[Mooglie]

i mean realistically it should be a 50/50 already if you assume that cuz why would maf be able to give PI Contracts unless this is a bastard game!

since its a town looking mafia role!!!

 

[Aqua]

usually hostposting isnt against the rules! and i forgot tim said not to do it this game

Just. Ask. In. The. Thread.

if it isn't specifically about your role or (if your mafia) your mafia team.

Ask in the thread.

This is literally the same issue from Strangers game.

It's not hard, just stop.

 

[Aqua]

i dont understand this logic

"i believe all maf are mafioso" isnt supported by 1 flipping mafioso

Are you high how does it not?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Just. Ask. In. The. Thread.

if it isn't specifically about your role or (if your mafia) your mafia team.

Ask in the thread.

This is literally the same issue from Strangers game.

It's not hard, just stop.

you're*

 

[Aqua]

Assuming notty and inf aren't on the same team maybe notty (as she's pretty suspicious still from yesterday) should donate 4 coins to inf.

That way as long as one of them is townie we'll find out whether both are scum or not.

also why are you guys ignoring this, this seems like a pretty good plan IMO

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Are you high how does it not?

how does it then? it simply doesnt deny the possibility it doesnt provide any support for the theory of all mafia being mafioso whatsoever

 

[Aqua]

you're*

cringe

 

[Infected_alien8_]

also why are you guys ignoring this, this seems like a pretty good plan IMO

since we're making a better plan!! and by we i mean oog/someone else good at maths like notty who can peer-review the plan

 

[Mooglie]

also why are you guys ignoring this, this seems like a pretty good plan IMO

since not only is notty donating 4 coins within the bigger plan, i also suggested it earlier than that

so the question is why are you ignoring it :)

 

[Aqua]

how does it then? it simply doesnt deny the possibility it doesnt provide any support for the theory of all mafia being mafioso whatsoever

Well it does. Since we now know at the very least 1/3 or 33% of the maifa team (on the assumption there are 3) are vanilla mafia. If the other mafia are PR roles it was statistically unlikely for us to hit the one who is vanilla first.

So in terms of probability, the probability has gone up. Like that's just undisputed fact. It went from a complete unknown to a >33% chance.

In terms of TWG's role we now have confirmation of a black market implying some form of PR shop. It seems far more logical especially in a game with no solid town PR's that mafia don't have bonus PR's on top of existing ones.

Finally I have totally forgotten what the 3rd thing I was gonna say was... if it comes back to me I'll tag you but this is stupid anyway, ur argument makes no sense and I literally realise now you responded to my question with the same question back you bad faith fuck, fuck you suck my dick smh

 

[Aqua]

ok i have 0 idea if this will work:

donations
1 coin - stranger
2 coins - moog, UNU
4 coins - notty
7 coins - skele
10 - hk
13 - aqua

the reasoning is that maximum of 2 people can be lying about their coin totals (unless we have a 3p, or theres 3 mafia left which is unlikely) and no two of those numbers can add up to make another one on the list

i put aqua as 13 since he claimed to start with 3 then +10 for alisha so it fits within his budget but tis interchangeable with notty
skele and hk are also interchangable

i put me and UNU both down as 2 since the next number on the list would be 16 which isnt achievable by anyones standards so it would be an automatic negative response even if they were the killer of alisha (unless they started out with 6 coins which i doubt) and since it is unlikely to be one of, but not both, stranger and UNU (both distributors) its best to have them on separate coin amounts

the issue this opens up is that if inf receives 4 coins it means its either me and UNU or just notty and the 2nd mafia member isnt lying about how many coins they have OR if inf receives 6 this means that notty and either me or UNU are lying

but if i am town (and i am) im probably dying tonight since i can do all of this so that shouldnt be too big an issue, and if it does happen then we can use good old fashioned mafia detective work / use the items to help deduce things further

i may be stupid and this might not work so i guess look at it carefully!!

this also assumes notty is town and not lying about noone making black market purchases last night slightly (since then aqua would have less than 3 coins that he started with, i mean he could be lying about that anyway but im disregarding that, then that means even with alishas +10 its not achievable)

theres probably a safer way to overlay more of the higher numbers to alleviate the reliance on notty but someone else can think too :)

I'm like 99% sure this won't work because of bidding but aight.

 

[Unusual_Dood]

My current theory is also that the safe is some sort of protection against an item-stealing role. That said, Unusual_Dood would you be ok with claiming your remaining two items now?

I still don't see why though.

 

[Aqua]

I'm like 99% sure this won't work because of bidding but aight.

Mooglie if you've changed ur mind about asking Tim questions ask how donations work in regards to bidding and what happens first

If not ur plan is dumb and I refuse to take part - us getting the auction items is likely far more important and MY BETTER plan is simpler and guarantees success with no issues.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Well it does. Since we now know at the very least 1/3 or 33% of the maifa team (on the assumption there are 3) are vanilla mafia. If the other mafia are PR roles it was statistically unlikely for us to hit the one who is vanilla first.

So in terms of probability, the probability has gone up. Like that's just undisputed fact. It went from a complete unknown to a >33% chance.

In terms of TWG's role we now have confirmation of a black market implying some form of PR shop. It seems far more logical especially in a game with no solid town PR's that mafia don't have bonus PR's on top of existing ones.

Finally I have totally forgotten what the 3rd thing I was gonna say was... if it comes back to me I'll tag you but this is stupid anyway, ur argument makes no sense and I literally realise now you responded to my question with the same question back you bad faith fuck, fuck you suck my dick smh

ok im not good at probabilty but im pretty sure that just because we know that at least 33% of the maf team are mafioso now that says nothing about the probability of the other team being mafioso as well. we knew it was possible that there was 1 mafioso and 2 non-PR before, that likelihood of that possibility hasnt changed at all

i see your point about the black market but i think its plausible maf have abilities they can buy as well as some that can do something else, it was the case in the original game as well (obv that doesnt mean anything but just saying, its been done before so if you cant think of how it could be balanced go read that game)

also if you truly believe this then why do you suspect me, who has proven to have an ability

 

[Stranger from Myst Island]

In the interest of not dragging your feet unnecessarily - like I don't see the difference between your items getting revealed publicly through the auction or you claiming the items other than you stonewalling us about the latter for reasons(tm).

 

[Mooglie]

Mooglie if you've changed ur mind about asking Tim questions ask how donations work in regards to bidding and what happens first

If not ur plan is dumb and I refuse to take part - us getting the auction items is likely far more important and MY BETTER plan is simpler and guarantees success with no issues.

i mean either way the donations are all over the amount everyone claims they have
the only person who thinks that that would interrupt buying stuff is people who have more coins than they claim
very interesting...