Didn't spot this last night, I'll respond once I get to a computer.
This would make sense if I unvoted at the end of the day. Except I didn't. Except I supported a no-lynch. Except I actually defended Ernie instead of voting him. Inffy you're a great player, we all know that, but really you should start with those who voted FOR Ernie and not the only one who voted no-lynch.
Why do you need to have unvoted at the end of the day for that to work? You could've easily advocated for a no lynch at the start of the day as mafia since that's what you thought you'd do as town or because you didn't want to push on anyone yet and have it backfire so early, and then when ernie was getting heat, defended ernie to look town when he was lynched.
Looking only at those who contributed to a lynch and ignoring everyone else is a mistake. I'm not suspecting you because you were voting no lynch, but you voting no lynch isn't incompatible with the idea that you're mafia, and since I think you're probably mafia, I think you kept your vote on no lynch and defended ernie to get town credit at the end of the day, if ernie did get lynched.
The fact you're ignoring all of that and acting as though it doesn't make sense makes me even more suspicious of you because you're not new to mafia and so I'd be surprised if you hadn't come across mafia defending town to look town once they flip, or something similar before. It makes me think you're pushing an agenda rather than being an honest townie.
Of course, a Mafia could gain goodwill with trying to not kill the town - or no-lynch to get goodwill. I must admit I have a hard time responding with this. I don't really see the "connection" you'd make between me being a Mafia and the cop lynch that took place yesterday.
Yes, but you're putting me as Mafia, when there's literally a list of people who voted the cop. Yes you could argue that I would gain goodwill for the cop lynch and "not put me in the spotlight" (ironic), but this would last like 1 day in a Mafia game. You won't hear me on day 4 saying "but I didn't lynch le cop xD so I cannot be Mafia!!". My point is: you're searching after the Mafia in the list of those who didn't vote for Ernie instead of those who voted for them. I'd argue that 2 of the Mafia, or possibly even all of them voted Ernie out yesterday.
Correct
Incorrect
Ignoring what?
Regarding TimDood's claim, I believe it is highly likely he is telling the truth. Claiming a 1-shot vig when you're not is a big risk. Not only is it likely that there is at least 1 V in the setup meaning someone else is the vig, but they don't have to claim in order to call Tims bluff, they can simply kill him at night.
Assuming Tim is what he is saying this means (like he pointed out himself) that the setup consist of at least two C's and one V's:
CCVxxxx
This means that we have one of these setups(where x is a PR letter):
35,3% - CCVTTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
35,3% - CCVTTTx = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
21,2% - CCVTTxx= Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
7,1% - CCVTxxx = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
1,0% - CCVxxxx = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
In all of these setups the mafia team consists of 3 players and 1 role blocker and goon so unless Tim isn't 1-shot vigilante we know for certain that there are 3 mafias wheras 1 is role blocker and one is goon. We can also see that it is likely we only have 0-2 PRs left.
There being only 1 night kill in addition to Tims also points at that there might not be a SK in the game. However this could also be explained by:
When we add up the chance for all of these happening together we can see that there's still a decent chance a SK exist, however we will figure that out by the number of deaths next night.
When it comes to the Ernie lynch I think it is likely that there were 2 mafias that voted Ernie, possibly all of them. Out the 10 players that are alive today 6 of them voted Ernie, while 4 didn't:
Ernie138: Shadow_hunter3, ChocoFox, Alisha, MoltenAshes, Catgirl12467, Fog (6)
Not Ernie138: Timdood3, Unusual_dood, Inffy, TheWeakGuy48_ (4)
If there were at least two mafias voting Ernie that means that 2/6 mafias voted Ernie while 1/4 mafias didn't OR 3/6 mafias voted Ernie while 0/4 mafias didn't. Basically I believe that if we lynch one of the ones that voted Ernie, we have a higher chance of killing mafias (2/6 or 3/6) than if we lynch some of the ones that didn't (1/4 or 0/4).
I'm out of time for the moment so I will make a post about my reads later, but I can throw out my 3 highest suspects before I'm leaving.
Shadow
Fog
Infected
Assuming Tim is what he is saying this means (like he pointed out himself) that the setup consist of at least two C's and one V's:
CCVxxxx
This means that we have one of these setups(where x is a PR letter):
35,3% - CCVTTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
35,3% - CCVTTTx = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
21,2% - CCVTTxx= Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
7,1% - CCVTxxx = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
1,0% - CCVxxxx = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
In all of these setups the mafia team consists of 3 players and 1 role blocker and goon so unless Tim isn't 1-shot vigilante we know for certain that there are 3 mafias wheras 1 is role blocker and one is goon. We can also see that it is likely we only have 0-2 PRs left.
There being only 1 night kill in addition to Tims also points at that there might not be a SK in the game. However this could also be explained by:
- A town blocker (if he exist) that blocked either mafias or SKs kill (forgot this earlier).
When we add up the chance for all of these happening together we can see that there's still a decent chance a SK exist, however we will figure that out by the number of deaths next night.
When it comes to the Ernie lynch I think it is likely that there were 2 mafias that voted Ernie, possibly all of them. Out the 10 players that are alive today 6 of them voted Ernie, while 4 didn't:
Ernie138: Shadow_hunter3, ChocoFox, Alisha, MoltenAshes, Catgirl12467, Fog (6)
Not Ernie138: Timdood3, Unusual_dood, Inffy, TheWeakGuy48_ (4)
If there were at least two mafias voting Ernie that means that 2/6 mafias voted Ernie while 1/4 mafias didn't OR 3/6 mafias voted Ernie while 0/4 mafias didn't. Basically I believe that if we lynch one of the ones that voted Ernie, we have a higher chance of killing mafias (2/6 or 3/6) than if we lynch some of the ones that didn't (1/4 or 0/4).
I'm out of time for the moment so I will make a post about my reads later, but I can throw out my 3 highest suspects before I'm leaving.
Shadow
Fog
Infected
On mobile so can't quote but TWG
Even if the credit you earnt for defending the cop was short term that doesn't mean you didn't think it was worth doing, and I struggle to buy that you don't see it that way
And it's not like I'm focusing on people who didn't lynch ernie over those who did, I'm not ignoring them, I'm just not ignoring you
Also I don't really like how most (all?) of UNU's posts today are about mechanics, some of which is just reiterating what was said already. Mechanic talk is an easy way for Mafia to seem helpful without giving us a lot of information on their alignment since they're not pushing on anyone or being associated with anyone, so it's a bit of a red flag for me
Can you explain why your suspects are fog, shadow and me too please UNU?
Even if the credit you earnt for defending the cop was short term that doesn't mean you didn't think it was worth doing, and I struggle to buy that you don't see it that way
And it's not like I'm focusing on people who didn't lynch ernie over those who did, I'm not ignoring them, I'm just not ignoring you
Also I don't really like how most (all?) of UNU's posts today are about mechanics, some of which is just reiterating what was said already. Mechanic talk is an easy way for Mafia to seem helpful without giving us a lot of information on their alignment since they're not pushing on anyone or being associated with anyone, so it's a bit of a red flag for me
Can you explain why your suspects are fog, shadow and me too please UNU?
TWG you're a very experienced player, but really you should know that it's not all about voting patterns. I don't know if you've read the rest of the day or not, but we spent a few pages investigating me and Molten. You're acting very dismissive here which tells me you don't really care about scumhunting.
Why are you quantifying the goodwill you're getting right now? You're trying to say you're above being suspicious because you voted no lynch and then you're walking us through your scenario like you had the whole thing planned from the beginning.
I think you meant to say: and the fact the mechanical part of that last post is including more useful content (...)
And despite that some of the mechanics have been mentioned before, I believe it is 'more helpful to town' to reiteriate it so everyone knows everything by reading that post, instead of reading 4-5 different ones on completly different pages.
Now, I am not completly sure what you categorize as mechanic talk, but yes both my posts today include 'information about the roles that may exist when looking deeper into the game', but the last one is also including more than that.
'Mechanic talk' is also an easy way to give useful info, which later or will be valuable. There's no reason to not share this, and the only point you got against me here is me lacking posts about who I suspect and doesn't. Well, good news for you Infected:
Scientists have discovered that there is often a connection between someone saying they will do something and someone doing that something not long after.
Before anybody says 'yes he will do it later', I'm pointing out that he spent energy on this long post refuting the mechanical arguments Inffy brought up, and didn't list the reasoning behind his scumreads.
Can't quote since mobile again but
Yes the last post had a list of three suspects as well as the mechanic talk but the main part of your post is mechanics and you don't even elaborate on your suspect list. Rather than say it's "about" mechanics it would be more accurate for me to say "for the most part" sure, sorry, but that doesn't change the fact that the vast majority of your content today is mechanic talk, which is still a red flag for me
And sure I think reiterating information can be useful but considering you seemingly don't have much time to make posts, I expected the posts you do make to be your reads and original thoughts since those are surely a higher priority than repeating what someone said about what roles to expect, so the fact you're seemingly prioritising the latter is weird to me and
makes me question whether you're actually trying to help us or if you're just trying to do enough to get by while staying off the radar because your objective is to survive rather than scumhunt
And okay sorry I forgot you said that, I'll look forward to seeing your reasons then
Yes the last post had a list of three suspects as well as the mechanic talk but the main part of your post is mechanics and you don't even elaborate on your suspect list. Rather than say it's "about" mechanics it would be more accurate for me to say "for the most part" sure, sorry, but that doesn't change the fact that the vast majority of your content today is mechanic talk, which is still a red flag for me
And sure I think reiterating information can be useful but considering you seemingly don't have much time to make posts, I expected the posts you do make to be your reads and original thoughts since those are surely a higher priority than repeating what someone said about what roles to expect, so the fact you're seemingly prioritising the latter is weird to me and
makes me question whether you're actually trying to help us or if you're just trying to do enough to get by while staying off the radar because your objective is to survive rather than scumhunt
And okay sorry I forgot you said that, I'll look forward to seeing your reasons then
Good point actually, UNU why is it taking so long to give
Whay stands out to you about it and why?
Woops sorry I hate mobile I meant to delete that first part since I assume you'll just say you're finding quotes or cleaning up your argument and so the question seemed like it wouldn't get anywhere in the end
...Oh boy. Um. Oof. I was out yesterday.
Right, I'm not sure what you guys want to hear from me. With that whole debacle with Molten, my suspicions from earlier in the day are bolstered, though I might have a bias from being the one he targeted.
Um, since Molten brought this up earlier, I'm actually not all that suspicious of Choco? I was more suspicious of those who participated in the lynch (I'm aware I was in that group) for reasons that've already been discussed.
As someone who tends to rely on piecing together the setup and such, I think Unu's posts are useful to a degree. But if you're gonna quote scientists, please provide citations to said studies, and elaborate on the relevance of the statement.
As for TWG... There's greater chance of mafia participating in the lynch, but it'd be a nice excuse for someone to sit out of it to justify why they're not suspect. Especially since that relies on the retrospect of the victim's role. Which we do not have before the lynch. Continuing to push this as a reason to deflect focus gives me bad vibes.
So, my main suspicions as of now:
Molten: still up there for that weird pivot and the reasons I stated earlier in the day.
TWG: starting to get iffy.
Right, I'm not sure what you guys want to hear from me. With that whole debacle with Molten, my suspicions from earlier in the day are bolstered, though I might have a bias from being the one he targeted.
Um, since Molten brought this up earlier, I'm actually not all that suspicious of Choco? I was more suspicious of those who participated in the lynch (I'm aware I was in that group) for reasons that've already been discussed.
As someone who tends to rely on piecing together the setup and such, I think Unu's posts are useful to a degree. But if you're gonna quote scientists, please provide citations to said studies, and elaborate on the relevance of the statement.
As for TWG... There's greater chance of mafia participating in the lynch, but it'd be a nice excuse for someone to sit out of it to justify why they're not suspect. Especially since that relies on the retrospect of the victim's role. Which we do not have before the lynch. Continuing to push this as a reason to deflect focus gives me bad vibes.
So, my main suspicions as of now:
Molten: still up there for that weird pivot and the reasons I stated earlier in the day.
TWG: starting to get iffy.
I have some questions for you catgirl if you have the time~
If you had to pick a team of three people to be mafia together, who would they be?
Out of everyone still alive, who is not scum?
How are you doing on piecing together the setup?
If you had to pick a team of three people to be mafia together, who would they be?
Out of everyone still alive, who is not scum?
How are you doing on piecing together the setup?
Not a question but your commentary is a treasure
Also in case it wasn't clear UNU I'd like a response to my post and an answer to why you seem to be prioritising talking about the setups roles rather than your reads please
Sorry tried to send this like an hour ago but my phone died
Sorry tried to send this like an hour ago but my phone died
Oof, ok, I haven't been paying attention to teaming, and I'm only reading negative on two people, so I guess my top 3 suspects... Molten, TWG... eegh I'm bad at reads. Fog is a neutral-negative for me. Molten, TWG, Fog.
I've doubted Inffy and Tim the least. They just seem to be doing the most sound scumhunting to me.
Poorly. Admittedly I haven't put a lot of thought into it so far, just because we haven't had a lot of claims (understandably). I'm starting to think that I should prrobably not do that, since the only information gain right now seems to be estimating how many mafia are left. In the past with closed setups, it's been helpful for me to list out every role's claimed actions and try to consider their consequences, but that's probably not that useful in this setup. Especially that I only really start figuring things out near the end of the game, and we don't have any esoteric roles this time. It's just not safe to claim in this setup, which leaves more unknowns.
I named Choco at that time because that was the first name that came to mind when thinking about people who pushed for an Ernie lynch, hence "and co". I was mostly just annoyed at the time that the majority vote was still on Ernie and wanted to make it clear that I wasn't following their opinion. That's all.
Here are my reads:
TheWeakGuy48_ - I still think he is more likely to be town, and I am slightly more convinced now than before. He always no-lynches day 0, at least from what I remember, so him doing that yesterday wasn't unusual and it seems like many is suspecting him which can point at that he is town.
Alisha - Still not sure. She did vote Ernie, but I still think she has contributed well and made some good posts, so leaning towards town.
ChocoFox - Reading him as town. He has been active and contributed and I am getting the feeling he has town intentions. He did vote Ernie, however he did give him the time to defend himself. I guess I could be wrong here, but thats what my intuition is telling me.
TimDood - I believe his claim. Like I said it is a extremly bad idea to claim so if he wasn't 1-shot vig because there is likely to exist a real vig who could just kill him next night.
Infected - I am just getting the feeling he on purpose is town reading the most influential people while suspecting the 'weaker' players to get more easy lynches. While he didn't vote Ernie he certaintly suspected him, so that doesn't decrease any suspicion.
Shadow - Like I said earlier I find him suspicious. He is in my eyes the most suspicious currently. He has been suspicious of people who later has turned out to be town and also people I think might be town. Some of his posts has came across of a bit odd, and especially this post came to my mind:
Fog - He did vote for Ernie and the apparently sudden suspicion increase on TWG came across as suspicious imo. I mean I can buy him getting suspicious due to TWG going hard on him, but I feel like it also could be a move to get a reason to vote TWG later as many seems to have gotten suspicious of him recently, so I am getting somewhat suspicious of him.
TheWeakGuy48_ - I still think he is more likely to be town, and I am slightly more convinced now than before. He always no-lynches day 0, at least from what I remember, so him doing that yesterday wasn't unusual and it seems like many is suspecting him which can point at that he is town.
Alisha - Still not sure. She did vote Ernie, but I still think she has contributed well and made some good posts, so leaning towards town.
ChocoFox - Reading him as town. He has been active and contributed and I am getting the feeling he has town intentions. He did vote Ernie, however he did give him the time to defend himself. I guess I could be wrong here, but thats what my intuition is telling me.
TimDood - I believe his claim. Like I said it is a extremly bad idea to claim so if he wasn't 1-shot vig because there is likely to exist a real vig who could just kill him next night.
Infected - I am just getting the feeling he on purpose is town reading the most influential people while suspecting the 'weaker' players to get more easy lynches. While he didn't vote Ernie he certaintly suspected him, so that doesn't decrease any suspicion.
Shadow - Like I said earlier I find him suspicious. He is in my eyes the most suspicious currently. He has been suspicious of people who later has turned out to be town and also people I think might be town. Some of his posts has came across of a bit odd, and especially this post came to my mind:
Molten and catgirl - Neutral. I haven't been following them too closely, and can't remember exactly what they said, but their posts didn't cross me as particularily suspicious.
Fog - He did vote for Ernie and the apparently sudden suspicion increase on TWG came across as suspicious imo. I mean I can buy him getting suspicious due to TWG going hard on him, but I feel like it also could be a move to get a reason to vote TWG later as many seems to have gotten suspicious of him recently, so I am getting somewhat suspicious of him.