C9++ - Game End - Mafia Win

Infected_alien8_

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@Inffy what is your opinion of Fog?
My instinctual reaction is to say probably town since I don't get the feeling he's actually pushing for anything and meta-wise that means town to me for fog and even without meta that just says he doesn't have an agenda to kill people to me as well.

Also choco who would you say is 'influential' this game?

Ok so I re-read most of the thread now I have a few opinions about everyone. I hope this answers every question that was asked, if not feel free to ask them again.
(first I want to apologize if my attitude came off as being rude earlier)

About my earlier reads: While I already had established opinions, when I re-read the thread I decided to "start from scratch" and only keeping my earlier opinions in the back of my head. Hopefully to prevent my earlier thoughts to influence my new thoughts, however some thoughts are the same or similar.

About the Ernie-lynch: While I earlier thought that the Ernie-lynch was unneeded, I can see the appeal to vote Ernie. He barely spoke and interacted with everyone else. It seems like he didn't put effort in. I would not have voted for him though day 0, but if he was alive this day I likely would've supported a lynch on him. This doesn't mean my earlier point, in that the traction the Ernie-lynch got, is invalid, although it may be lesser relevant than I initally thought.

On to my reads:

Unusual
*Has made a few big posts. While it is easier to navigate through what he has said, and it's easier to find his opinions, it makes it harder to interract with him and get to know his opinion all the time.
*His posts ususally contain information and statistics and how likely it is to have X role (and stuff). This is not really that useful, the roles that are in the game and how we play isn't altered by the statistics. I agree with Inffy here, in that his posts seem like "filler post", so he isn't forced to say his opinion at all times.
*He townsread me, while I greatly appreciate anyone for being correct, I can't help but feel like this is a call or encouragement for me to townread him back.
*While the earlier points are true, this itself is corresponds with his earlier games where he acted this way. That being said, if he is Mafia he could just be trying to copy his earlier attitude.

Fog
*Relaxed when it comes to voting, states his opinion first then votes later.
*Has stated his opinion on a few players, however he has posted when he has opinions even though he only has it on a few people.
*I have to take a hit here, he was not as scummy as I originally thought - I originally read his vote on Ernie as him following the "sheep herd".
*Partook in the Ernie lynch.

Molten
*Has made many post, but most of them are small. This makes it hard to find what they said earlier. This reads to me as a somewhat Mafia-ish behaviour, as it makes them look active while their posts have less value than a big post has. While this has been mentioned I couldn't find a larger post by them, so they should make it (please show me if you found it)
*They have been aggressive in their voting. While this may not, strictly speaking, Mafia, the way this happened feels like minor attemps to gain support to lynch that player, or also some sort of a bandwagon.
*Their opinion and scumreads feels like it's jumping all the time.
*Has been active and interactive with the rest of the players.

Shadow
*Hasn't really stood out, feels like they are trying to "blend in" with the rest of the players. This could be a townspersons opinion, however it is so similar to most others (with a few diffrences of course) that it makes me think that he could try to stay under the radar.
*They are jumpy when it comes to voting and scumreading, I think page 7-9 illustrates this good. Shadow makes a post with his opinions, that he thinks Fantome is scum. First example from day 0: Shadow votes Okx, who now has 4 votes for being inactive. Someone unvotes and he also unvotes. For the first example, he could logically unvote Okx since Okx just responded so I think this one's fair. Second example from day 0: Shadow unvotes (from Okx), and votes Fantome, this again makes sense logically because he said earlier that he scumread Fantome so it would make sense for him to follow it up on that. Third example from day 0: He unvotes Fantome and give Ernie a total of 3 votes, which doesn't make sense for him to do, as he scumread Fantome earlier but not just gave up.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch.
*Has voted for 3 proven townies, which indicate that he wanted to lynch someone town, as he maybe knew that they were town.

Catgirl
*Only voted yesterday against Ernie. Said earlier that she was willing to lynch either Ernie or Fantome if the lynch was close.
*Hasn't made that many posts throughout the game, although the post that has been made does make sense and are clear.
*I get a little vibe here that her opinion is influenced by what the other's say, of course it could just be their genuine thoughts, but it is something that stands a little out after my opinion.

Timdood
*Claims to be a 1-shot vigilante, a claim that I believe.
*Their posts seem genuine town-like and it feels like they are after information from the players.
*While it's easy to say now that I townread them, I also did this somewhat earlier which makes me happy as at least 1 of my reads are correct. :)

Chocofox
*Has been active and has showed interest in the game, which makes me think they're town.
*Their posts read town-like to me, they are actively after information and it feels like they want to help town.
*Has made a few big posts, and many others. Has also asked many questions to the diffrent players.
*Their profile is private, which makes it really difficult to see what their opinion was at what times.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch early on, and followed through with it.

Inffy
*Has been active and responsive to questions they have been asked.
*Creates big post every once in a while which makes it easy to see what their opinion is at what times. But could probably remove the grammar correction posts which, to me, feels like a way to up their post count.
*Supported a lynch on the inactivities day 0. This doesn't really mean anything, except that the inactivities ended up being town (Okx + Ernie).
*Can't help but feel like he's trying to put me as a Mafia because I didn't want to lynch Ernie yesterday. I mean this could be a genuine town play, however it confuses me, as logically the Mafia would lynch Ernie. He could argue that if I was Mafia, I knowingly wouldn't publically want to lynch Ernie, to make me seem more town, I see his point, and it's impossible to argue against it, however it also applies to him, he could also be Mafia and try to gain goodwill.
*It feels like he's trying to find a Mafia from those who didn't vote Ernie yesterday. Of course, this would make sense if we were trying to make a point out of it, however I feel like he is digging for gold where there is none.
*Seems to have much influence when it comes to who is lynched, after he started to scumread me, then suddenly many more are. This doesn't indicate if he's town or not town though, as the Mafia could be wanting to lynch me eitherway.

Alisha
*Has been active and interractive in the game.
*Creates informative posts every once in a while, which makes it easier to find what she said.
*Probably jumped the most with their vote last day. Could be a town, or Mafia, who's eager to express their opinion, or could be a Mafia wanting to gain support for a lynch or alternatively start a bandwagon. Admittely, I doubt the latter, mostly because not all of their votes have been entirely serious.
*Here's a list of the "serious" votes that she placed last day: Chocofox, Fantome, Okx, Ernie and theWeakGuy48_. Out of these 5 votes, 3 of them are proven town, aka Fantome, Okx and Ernie. I know that myself is also a town, which makes only Chocofox stand out as who I know is not town, who I also believe is town. She voted 3/5 proven town and from my point of view (or Choco if he's town for that sake) 4/5 proven town. This is strange behaviour. You could argue that Okx, or Ernie for that sake, were AFK, so the votes were justified. I'm not gonna argue that, that's up to each and everyone else to decide. It would not make sense that you end up voting for so many townplayers.
*She has made her opinion clear throughout the game which makes me feel she has taken much time into thinking who is Mafia or who she wants dead. This doesn't really say anything as she's active in the game and experienced.
*Partook in the Ernie lynch

In the end I ended up with this result as my reads:

Likely Mafia
Shadow_Hunter3
Alisha

Possibly Mafia
Unusual_Dood
MoltenAshes

Neutral
Fog
Catgirl

Possibly Town
Chocofox
Inffy

Likely Town
Timdood3
This is quite a townie-toned post so good job if you're mafia

However:
Chocofox
*Has been active and has showed interest in the game, which makes me think they're town.
I don't believe this read tbh. I just struggle to believe that choco being active and interested makes you think they're more likely to be town, it feels way too easy for you to town read him because of that, especially since you didn't mention alisha or shadow's activity making you question your other points on them. It feels like you decided already you wanted to town read him and then wanted to find as many reasons as you could to do that, which isn't something town would do. Can you explain to me why choco being active and showing interest makes you think they're town but you didn't mention that when reading anyone else please?

In response to the stuff you've said about me:

*Can't help but feel like he's trying to put me as a Mafia because I didn't want to lynch Ernie yesterday. I mean this could be a genuine town play, however it confuses me, as logically the Mafia would lynch Ernie. He could argue that if I was Mafia, I knowingly wouldn't publically want to lynch Ernie, to make me seem more town, I see his point, and it's impossible to argue against it, however it also applies to him, he could also be Mafia and try to gain goodwill.
*It feels like he's trying to find a Mafia from those who didn't vote Ernie yesterday. Of course, this would make sense if we were trying to make a point out of it, however I feel like he is digging for gold where there is none.
To be clear I'm not suspecting you *because* you didn't want to lynch ernie yesterday, I'm suspecting you because of your weird insistence that ernie's behaviour was just because they were new, and how you acted like it didn't make sense for anyone to think you were mafia because you didn't lynch ernie and used that to try to deflect suspicion from you, even though I think a town TWG would understand why it could make sense. It all smells like an agenda to me.

The fact you didn't lynch ernie doesn't make me ignore those points because I can easily see mafia doing exactly what you did. Not voting ernie just isn't something that sways me to think anybody is town, at least not on its own.

Also I'm not trying to find mafia in the people who didn't vote ernie, I'm just not using the 'who voted ernie' to direct who I focus on. If people make posts that I find suspicious I'll investigate it, regardless of whether they voted ernie. If I ignore you or UNU or anyone else who pings my radar just on the basis that they didn't vote ernie then I think that's a mistake because mafia could easily have not voted ernie yesterday, and I could die tonight so I don't have the luxury of waiting until later to investigate certain people who didn't vote ernie and focus on the ones that did first.

--

Anyways, I have a question to ask everybody and I'd like everyone to answer please.

Out of TWG and molten, which would you rather us lynch, and why?


This is everyone's opportunity to have their say in the direction of this day, since right now it's looking like this is the way we're headed judging by what I've read.

I'll answer too - TWG since something has happened in the thread which has set my intuition off on molten being a mislynch. I don't know what specifically yet but that's how I feel about it. TWG though I'm feeling more convinced that he's scum for the reasons I told him above.
 
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Alisha

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Out of TWG and molten, which would you rather us lynch, and why?
I have a slight preference for Molten to be lynched because none of his reads feel genuine - his switch from thinking catgirl and I are a scumteam to believing both of us to be townsided still doesn't make complete sense to me.

TWG took until his last big post to actually make an attempt to scumhunt, and he's still trying to spread lies (He spent effort portraying me as a flipflopper again, so I don't think anything he has to say is going to be helpful at all)

I'd rather lynch Molten first, but they're both scum so whoever gets enough votes is who I'm fine with.
 
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HKCaper

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Votecount timeeee!
MoltenAshes: Alisha (1/6)

Deadline is Friday 4PM GMT (in 3 days minus 2 hours).
- Remember if a majority isnt reached by then, it will default to no lynch.
- With 10 players alive it takes 6 votes to lynch 5 votes to no lynch.
 
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TheWeakGuy48_

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Can you explain to me why choco being active and showing interest makes you think they're town but you didn't mention that when reading anyone else please?
I actually mentioned it with some of the other players. Notably you and Alisha I felt like it wouldn't be fair or correct to judge your alignment after activity, as you are two of the most vocal players. It's not like Choco is usually quiet, it's just that I thought that as a sign of town-like behaviour. Of course I don't draw the final conclusion on people's alignment based on how active and interested they are, it's not like Choco is 100% town because he is active. In hindsight, maybe I shouldn't have included that part.

To be clear I'm not suspecting you *because* you didn't want to lynch ernie yesterday, I'm suspecting you because of your weird insistence that ernie's behaviour was just because they were new, and how you acted like it didn't make sense for anyone to think you were mafia because you didn't lynch ernie and used that to try to deflect suspicion from you, even though I think a town TWG would understand why it could make sense. It all smells like an agenda to me.

The fact you didn't lynch ernie doesn't make me ignore those points because I can easily see mafia doing exactly what you did. Not voting ernie just isn't something that sways me to think anybody is town, at least not on its own.
I see, I must've misunderstood your point earlier. On day 0, as Ernie was new, and I felt like most players was ignoring that, I felt the need to call them out. The lynch just seemed odd from my perspective. This was what I thought earlier, and while I still think the Ernie lynch was unnecessary, I can see the appeal in it, and why people voted them. In all likeliness, if Ernie was still alive and continued their behaviour, then it's likely that I would end up voting them.
Also I'm not trying to find mafia in the people who didn't vote ernie, I'm just not using the 'who voted ernie' to direct who I focus on. If people make posts that I find suspicious I'll investigate it, regardless of whether they voted ernie. If I ignore you or UNU or anyone else who pings my radar just on the basis that they didn't vote ernie then I think that's a mistake because mafia could easily have not voted ernie yesterday, and I could die tonight so I don't have the luxury of waiting until later to investigate certain people who didn't vote ernie and focus on the ones that did first.
I agree, and my impression earlier was that it was a factor (and I was misstaken)
Oh and for TWG and molten, who would you rather lynch today, the other out of the pair of you, or someone else, and why?
In my earlier post, I mentioned Shadow_Hunter3 and Alisha. I think they're just as good lynch targets, if not better, than Molten. Shadow_Hunter3 mostly because his vote has been jumpy, he voted for proven town and it feels like he has been trying to follow bandwagons.
Alisha because she voted for at least (from my point of view) 4 proven townies day 0. Her posts make my scum-bell ring like crazy.
 
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TheWeakGuy48_

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Once again, I was okay with lynching anyone on day 0. I've said this multiple times and you've been ignoring that.
Correct, you were okay with lynching (almost) anyone on day 0. Admittely, it would make sense from your perspective, if you were willing to vote for everyone, that you ended up voting for them. However, just the fact that you voted 3 proven townies should ring some alarm bells, voting patterns in mafia is a factor. I'll admit that it makes somewhat sense in your example. Also: sorry for not realising you have said this multiple times before.
 

Alisha

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Correct, you were okay with lynching (almost) anyone on day 0. Admittely, it would make sense from your perspective, if you were willing to vote for everyone, that you ended up voting for them. However, just the fact that you voted 3 proven townies should ring some alarm bells, voting patterns in mafia is a factor. I'll admit that it makes somewhat sense in your example. Also: sorry for not realising you have said this multiple times before.
The problem is that only townies have flipped so far too
 

Infected_alien8_

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My instinctual reaction is to say probably town since I don't get the feeling he's actually pushing for anything and meta-wise that means town to me for fog and even without meta that just says he doesn't have an agenda to kill people to me as well.
Mm thought about this and I'll retract this specific statement since I think that's a bias I have for fog based on meta, I don't think that's something I necessarily believe when it comes to other people (I was suspicious of UNU who isn't pushing for anyone for example). The first sentence still stands though

Anyways I'd really like it if people answered that question soon please since we don't have a huge amount of time left
 

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Ernie138: Shadow_hunter3, ChocoFox, MoltenAshes, Alisha, Fog, Catgirl12467, Fantome (7/7)
Fantome: Timdood3 (1/7)
Fog: Unusual_Dood (1/7)
TheWeakGuy48_: Inffy (1/7)
No lynch: TheWeakGuy48_ (1/7)
Also choco who would you say is 'influential' this game?
I would say perhaps Tim, Alisha, (Fog), myself.

You seem to Townread most of us (Tim's read I can understand) while doing a flip-flop on Alisha.

Since you and Tim both say you trust each other I will just follow whichever wagon you two both agree on (which looking at it is either Weak or MoltenAshes) - but I will say for now my general suspicions lie on the same reads I have posted before:
Current sus (not in order):
Alisha
Shadow_Hunter3
MoltenAshes
The reason why I trust Tim is because:
1. He claimed 1-shot vig - an SK trying to imitate this to claim vigilante later is possible, but with the Mafia around doing so is literally suicide since Mafia has to get rid of SK to win
2. A Mafia trying to imitate a vigilante claim could end up being shot by a real vigilante, plus claiming so early on is not very Mafia-like behaviour. It presents too much risk perhaps?

That's all I wanted to say.
 

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So, we absolutely have to lynch someone today, because if we no-lynch, we go from having 1 mislynch to less than 1. And we have about 48 hours left in the day.

A reminder of the people I think we should be looking at: Molten, Weak, Unu, Fog, and Shadow
Out of TWG and molten, which would you rather us lynch, and why?
Another reminder, Infected posed this question and I would also like to see it answered. Frankly, I'm a little bit lost right now. I feel as though I'd prefer a Molten lynch, but I'm not sure why.

MoltenAshes Why shouldn't we lynch you?
The same question applies to Unusual_Dood, Fog, Shadow_Hunter3 and Weak who I won't tag because he's active enough to see this.
 

TheWeakGuy48_

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Why shouldn't we lynch you?
It's almost impossible to answer this question, even with emotional appeal!

When you look through the game, it certainly feels like there's only 4-5 people who has been stating their opinions this game, and the rest has just followed after. Have you ever noticed how similar each "scumlist" ends up being? Me being the one out of two candidates for the lynch illustrates this at it's best: 3 people saying their opinion about me, and the rest silently follows. There's really no way of defending myself against people who don't voice their opinion. Don't lynch me is all I'm gonna say, and if you do, then I'm gonna enjoy a fine ego boost.
 

Infected_alien8_

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If you're town and get lynched, you gain an ego boost because, because the town "misread" you and you were correct.
Oh I thought you were trying to softclaim something

But no I wouldn't say that's true, there's no reason you'd get an ego boost for being right about your own role, moreso I'd say it's that your ego doesn't get hurt as much if you get lynched as town relative to if you get lynched as mafia because it's a lot easier to put the blame on other people misreading you rather than you failing to blend in with the town. That's my personal belief anyway