MEDIEVAL MAFIA: INTRUSION [DAY 8]

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Mooglie

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Well, we can't be sure if they don't because it might say it in their PM. I still do have a few suspicions on Myuser and not a lot but a tiny bit on Jivvi but probably nothing lynch-worthy. If it does come to us voting in the current situation I would have to vote for Myuser :'c Hopefully more evidence comes up before that situationnn.
 

digi

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Who would most likely be targeted?
Now I know that this question is going to be answered with, "Anyone!" BUT, if we were to No Lynch today who do you think will be Mafia's first target?
Just throwing it out there. Obviously don't give names, but through your experience who's usually the ones to be targeted first?

In my experience on these Mafia forum games, it's nearly always been the newcomers. Especially the ones that haven't posted much or we're not familiar with. Again, that's my experience.
 

Jeercrul

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Who would most likely be targeted?
When I was mafia last season I wanted to target those who seem most likely to be a power role, or those who can really influence the town to think in a certain manner. Probably what mafia might do as well? It depends.
 

Nottykitten

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Who would most likely be targeted?
...or those who can really influence the town to think in a certain manner.

I understand that kind of targeting. As an example, I find JKangaroo influential. He knows how to word things well and convince people.
A strategy I once used was to kill all the talkative people. Quit people are much easier to convince than talkative ones.
 

Enderfive

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We can do quite a lot from a psychological standpoint D0 when mafia don't know their partners. Pushing a bandwagon and watching for reactions is a particular tell.
On another note, I think Priz makes a good point by saying that mafia don't know their allies yet (Thymos?). If this is so, apparent links between players can be ignored on this first day (another reason not to waste today).[/quote]

Ah, but we don't know if the mafia knows who the other mafia are or not. In the Doomed Cruise, I knew right from the start who the other mafia was.


Right now my biggest suspicion would be notty. He's an excellent manipulator, but the logic he came up with to justify his vote on Jivvi just doesn't seem real to me. I know we gotta explore every possibility, but we should also keep our thoughts realistic. There is, of course, a small chance that notty is right about Jivvi, but I gotta agree with Hype on the fact that Jivvi usually is a very cheerful and joking person, so I can understand how the GmK vote was a joke. All in all, notty seems pretty eager to lynch Jivvi for some reason.

And then a little part of my suspicion also goes to Priz, who seems rather confident in his post that the mafia don't know who the other mafia are, which can be because he's mafia and doesn't know who the other mafia are. Although, that could be a common game mechanic, so the suspicion I have on Priz is by far not as big as the suspicion I have on notty.
 

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I'm suprised people are already suspicious to you.
Ofcourse Notty's vote can be seen suspicious, but I'm sure he's just trying to get some reactions, which can be useful in the next days.

As for the night, I think we will just have to vote for a No-Lynch. The chance of lynching a townie is too big.
And with the information we have so far we cant call someone really suspicious.
 

GmK

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As for the night, I think we will just have to vote for a No-Lynch. The chance of lynching a townie is too big.
Yes, that is the issue: The chance of accidently lynching a towny is big, but: If we don't lynch at all (no matter the outcome), the chances for Scum to win rise by roughly 30% (!) or so.

Rooting for a NL in D0 is actually something that scum would try to let happen. (Or make absolutely sure a towny is lynched)
That is the real conundrum...
 

Alisha

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No lynching day 0 worked on The Doomed Cruise, mafia didn't win that one

Here's why I want to lynch someone today. Even if we lynch a townie, we will gain evidence that we can use for the next day. It's like progressing on a road of logic. If we start now, Day 1 we will start further along the road than we would if we no lynched.

Speaking of roads, The road to ruin in your list of people who contributed, what would you say you have contributed to this discussion? A previous post of yours was trying to get me to say more things, which struck me as curious when you could have added something yourself.
 

Nottykitten

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I'm suprised people are already suspicious to you.
Ofcourse Notty's vote can be seen suspicious, but I'm sure he's just trying to get some reactions, which can be useful in the next days.
True dat, at first I voted Jivvi because it was a reaction test. But I do sort of think Jivvi is suspicious so I'm keeping my vote on him for now. After all, we need some discussion ;)
 
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GmK

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No lynching day 0 worked on The Doomed Cruise, mafia didn't win that one

Here's why I want to lynch someone today. Even if we lynch a townie, we will gain evidence that we can use for the next day. It's like progressing on a road of logic. If we start now, Day 1 we will start further along the road than we would if we no lynched.

Only said they have a higher chance to win, statistically, not that they will ;) But I am in full agreement, as much as I hate it: If we NL, we have nothing to work off at all, if we L, we at least can analyse that a bit.

I like what endersteve5 said about Prizyms - but it's hardly anything to really go by. I personally am more wary of the people pushing a NL than those pushing a L (as stated above why)
 

Jivvi

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To throw something random into the air, if Notty wasn't experience, I'd be suspicious of the vote, because it seemed a bit like a light attempt to poke at a possible bandwagon. Obviously Notty is experienced, and wouldn't be so silly.
One of my pet peeves in mafia is actions/moves that can have much of a function, but people allow to be withdrawn without question. Namely, if you claim doctor, for example, then retract, I'm really not going to let it slide. Same deal with 'reaction testing'. While it is a commonly used tactic, it's also an overused cover-up. And beside, if all you do is throw a random vote on someone, you won't really get the reaction desired.
~Sudden mindblank
I seriously don't know what to type now, I might add more later
 

std1997

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Either way someone votes you're going to raise suspicion this early on in the game with everyone scrutinizing everyone's posts to the very molecules of it but either way, I think if we want to take a shot in the dark and possibly kill someone then fine, i'll bandwagon but i'm not going to put my gun at anyone without at least some indication of their evil deeds but on the other hand a no-lynch could be worked both ways by saving a civ and also protecting us from accidentally killing a townie which would only go to help them (as stated by Notty) so I think we should just stick with a No-Lynch for now.
 

Enderfive

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And now my biggest suspicion is Pim. Here's why:

How experienced are you with Mafia games?
Well, I've played alot IRC mafia games, though this will be my first forum one.

What are your strengths (What do you think your strengths could be) in a game of Mafia?
Hm... I would say I can think quite logical, making connection between people's posts.
Though I'm sure I will have to change my way of thinking, as it wont be as quick as im used on IRC, giving people much more time to think before posting certain things.

How suspicious do you deem yourself to be?

Hard to say now, though there will always be a chance I will look suspicious to others.
This was your first actual post. As we can see, you answered the questions that GmK put forward, but gave no actual info about what you think, how we should act, anything. As Road already explained, this is a rather good way for scum to seem innocent, because they're "contributing" to the conversation, while not actually saying much. Ok, a lot of people did that, so surely this is nothing?

Let's move on.


I will post my answers to the questions when I get home later tonight.
80% of people I've seen say something like this turned out to be scum (scum is a Mafia term for any anti-town, so if I use it, don't be offended) :p
Not that it actually means something, just something worth to note.
And with that, I'm finishing this rather long first post. Hoping to get some discussion going so we could start picking out our suspicions.

Argh, I'm so busy with exams. Hopefully I'll have some time in 10 hours when I get home from school.
This was your next post. Again, we see that you're not actually contributing anything to the discussion, rather, you're bringing up something from my post that might put some suspicion on someone else, in that case, 77. That's a scummy move, as far as my knowledge and logic about mafia games goes. They're ensuring that they don't seem suspicious, while at the same time putting suspicion on someone else.

Ok, let's assume that you just thought it was a funny thing to note. Let's move on.


Well then, lets get some more information.


Vote Jivvi
Here we can see you following notty's lead and casting your vote on Jivvi. While notty's reasoning was logical in at least some levels, you have no reasoning at all. To me that seems like you're trying to start a bandwagon just for the sake of it, while at the same time you can hide behind notty and say: "But he started the vote!" if Jivvi should prove to be innocent. Another classic scum move.

And at the very next post, right after two people said that they think lynching Jivvi is kind of weird, what do you do?

Sometimes its smarter to keep some explanations to yourself, as mafia can also use it to their advantage.
So, now there wont be any need to stay on Jivvi.

Unvote
You unvote. Right after two people say that lynching Jivvi isn't the move they'd make, you unvote. It's honestly looking like you're trying to go with whatever the people think at the moment, so that your (public) opinion would match most of the player's opinions. Which would theoretically make you less suspicious to them because people usually suspect people who don't agree with them, rather then those who do agree with them.


And now, here's your final post.

I'm suprised people are already suspicious to you.
Ofcourse Notty's vote can be seen suspicious, but I'm sure he's just trying to get some reactions, which can be useful in the next days.

As for the night, I think we will just have to vote for a No-Lynch. The chance of lynching a townie is too big.

And with the information we have so far we cant call someone really suspicious.
We can see you protecting notty, who in my eyes is also suspicious (ok, yeah, you guys don't have to take that part as a valid point).
We can also see you supporting a No Lynch, because apparently, "the chance of lynching a townie is too big." Let me ask you, didn't you feel this way when you voted for Jivvi? And why, after all the explanation about why a No Lynch is the worst option for the town, do you still support it?

If you can explain all this to me without raising any more suspicions, then I'll leave you be for the time being. But honestly, right now, you are by far the most suspicious player in my eyes and if I had to vote right now, you'd get my vote.
 
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Prizyms

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And then a little part of my suspicion also goes to Priz, who seems rather confident in his post that the mafia don't know who the other mafia are, which can be because he's mafia and doesn't know who the other mafia are. Although, that could be a common game mechanic, so the suspicion I have on Priz is by far not as big as the suspicion I have on notty.
Games with day start only ever reveal mafia to their partners at first night talk, every time. Otherwise, the whole purpose of starting on day is eliminated!
 

Arachadonic

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Is esentially the whole point of this to try and find out who the Mafia are and try and lynch them? While the Mafia must try and stay alive while pointing the finger at a wrongly accused? Slightly confusing..
 
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