Waning Sunset -- GAME OVER -- MAFIA WIN

[Deleted member 4601]

I'd guess I'll wait for Aqua to justify his vote on Ltin first, but before that:

Here are all the calculated probabilities for the setup based on the assumptions that we have at least one messenger, and we don't have a serial killer (the latter we're not entirely certain about)

There are actually 95 items in the list but I've only shown 20.

 

[Aqua]

I'd guess I'll wait for Aqua to justify his vote on Ltin

Continuation from day 1, no revelations have occured to make me change my suspicion, HK was the first to question Ltin, now he's dead. Could be maf trying to make Ltin look even more suspicious or could be Ltin as a maf doing some reverse psychology. Eitherway my vote is completely justified.

 

[Aqua]

Day 0*

 

[Deleted member 4601]

I'm not sure about that, to be honest. HK's death didn't seem to make Ltin anymore suspicious than he currently is. Someone probably killed HK for the sake of killing HK, but I can't say that for sure myself.

 

[Ltin]

I'm not sure about that, to be honest. HK's death didn't seem to make Ltin anymore suspicious than he currently is. Someone probably killed HK for the sake of killing HK, but I can't say that for sure myself.

I think the mafia would have taken it into account though, which would make framing me a part of their decision (assuming it was mafia that did the kill. There is possibility for serial killer/vig yes?)
Unless you have some insight into the Mafia's train of thought accusatory glance?

 

[Deleted member 4601]

I think the mafia would have taken it into account though, which would make framing me a part of their decision (assuming it was mafia that did the kill. There is possibility for serial killer/vig yes?)

Unless you have some insight into the Mafia's train of thought accusatory glance?

Perhaps, that's why I said I'm not sure. Accusing you of being mafia is certainly justified to some extent, but you weren't the only person HK questioned, and HK wasn't the only person who suspected that you were guilty, which is why I said that there has to be some other factor accounting for HK being killed, of all other people.

 

[Deleted member 4601]

Also about this table, if you're confused by it - the left column shows the letters that determine the setup (generated by some random number generator as explained in the sign-ups), the middle column shows the probability of that setup being generated (in permille), and the right column is the probability of that setup occurring after eliminating all the setups that can't happen (based on the information we have now, in percent).

 

[Comp]

Ok so if I can count correctly, the following is the number of posts posted by each player:

Weak: 3
Vat: 3
Notty: 11
Iggish: 1
Mulb: 5
Pink: 4
Comp: 2
Ltin: 12
Ederfive: 6
webpaige: 7
Ogglie: 4
Aqua: 22

I've excluded HK because he's dead. (rip hk). While it probably isn't a huge amount to go on, I'd say its likely that mafia would want to lie low in the beginning of the game and just murder people. Definitely I'd put iggy on a suspect list. Ltin also just seems a bit odd but don't have any real evidence for that.

Iggish I'd like to know why you barely have posted at all.

 

[Deleted member 4601]

While it probably isn't a huge amount to go on, I'd say its likely that mafia would want to lie low in the beginning of the game and just murder people.

Comp: 2

​

*⠀⠀⠀⠀*⠀⠀⠀⠀*⠀⠀⠀⠀*⠀⠀⠀⠀*​

I suppose we might as well do that form filling thing now since it's so quiet, so...

Who's suspicious? Why?

Who do you think is town? Why?

What do you think of HK's death?

Were you visited last night?

Spoiler

Who's suspicious? Why?
Right now I'm slightly suspicious of Iggish and webpaige, though these are just hunches with no real evidence.

Who do you think is town? Why?
At this point, no one except for myself (and HK). Not enough information.

What do you think of HK's death?
Somewhat surprising; from the mafia's perspective, it would be optimal for them to kill someone who is likely a town PR, but not too strong of a player to attract protective roles on night 1 - clearly they have done that, but there were certainly more options than HK. I don't want to rule out mafia trying to frame Ltin.

Were you visited last night?
No, not that I know of.

 

[Iggish]

Who's suspicious? Why? I don't really have any strong opinions here. No one that suspicious for me yet.

Who do you think is town? Why? Once again, not any real suspicions here. I mean, the bandwagon on Ltin could mean that mafia are teaming on him as an easy lynch or if he's mafia aswell to get suspicion off him, but probably not. No one standing out as a sparkling innocent angel for me.

What do you think of HK's death?
The mafia probably just picked a random player from the town pool.

Were you visited last night?
Nope

 

[Iggish]

Also, I haven't posted as I feel like there is nothing I can add to the convo, Not much seems to be happening and I have very few suspicions of mafia and townies.

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

Who's suspicious? Why?
Nobody atm, there's not really that much discussion/talking/shitposting going on atm so not really much information to gather

Who do you think is town? Why?
As I sad earlier there haven't been that much discussion so I haven't been able to townread anyone.

What do you think of HK's death?
RIP, well he was very active so it's kinda sad he died. Well, my bet is that the mafia killed him because he looked like a PR and/or to make Ltin susp.
Were you visited last night?
Nope

 

[Pink]

Who's suspicious?
No one atm.

Who do you think is town? Why?
I don’t really have a clue about anything so I don’t know
What do you think of HK's death?
I agree with Weak, he was most active, if we’re not active And don’t have any leads mafia could win easy. I think..?
Were you visited last night?
Nope

 

[Vatumok]

TheWeakGuy48_ PinkUnicornz Iggish
I find it rather suspicious that you have no opinion on the first question. You should have some feeling of who could be evil.

Who's suspicious? Why?
Ltin, inconsistent posts and saying strange things like "it's better to lynch a town than not at all"
Iggish/WeakGuy, he trying to stay out of the spotlight and doesn't really add anything with his posts. The same can be said for Pink but I think she would always play like this.

Who do you think is town? Why?
I think Aqua is good because how quickly many people voted on him and overall he doesn't come over as scum to me.
Mulbery looks good atm but the table and these questions doesn't mean she. I could definitely see her playing us.

What do you think of HK's death?
Pretty interesting because there was some suspicion put on HK so I'm not sure why they want to kill him. He was not a logical target for mafia last night but there are too many possibilites that I don't really have an idea yet.

Were you visited last night?
Nop.

 

[TheWeakGuy48_]

I can answer more detailed when I get home. Typing on a phone is a pain in the ass

 

[Ltin]

Who's suspicious? Why?
Uhh idk

Who do you think is town? Why?
Some of the stuff Mulbery has said is incompatible with the idea that I'm bring framed by the Mafia.

Speaking of which....
What do you think of HK's death?
I'M BEING FRAMED
Were you visited last night?
not that I know of

 

[Aqua]

What do you think of HK's death?
I'M BEING FRAMED

:thinking:

 

[Enderfive]

Some of the stuff Mulbery has said is incompatible with the idea that I'm bring framed by the Mafia.

what do you mean?

 

[Ltin]

I'm not sure about that, to be honest. HK's death didn't seem to make Ltin anymore suspicious than he currently is. Someone probably killed HK for the sake of killing HK, but I can't say that for sure myself.

If this is Mulbery the Mafia member trying to frame me, she isn't doing a very good job.

 

[Enderfive]

vote Ltin

 

[Mooglie]

Some of the stuff Mulbery has said is incompatible with the idea that I'm bring framed by the Mafia.

If this is Mulbery the Mafia member trying to frame me, she isn't doing a very good job.

i am slightly baffled as to what either of these mean

 

[Ltin]

i am slightly baffled as to what either of these mean

My point is: If the Mafia is trying to frame me (which I think they are), and Mulbery is NOT doing that (which at least the way I interpret her posts is true) then Mulbery must not be mafia.
Well maybe not must, but you get the idea.

 

[Aqua]

My point is: If the Mafia is trying to frame me (which I think they are), and Mulbery is NOT doing that (which at least the way I interpret her posts is true) then Mulbery must not be mafia.
Well maybe not must, but you get the idea.

You're making yourself look so suspicious I can't tell if you're mafia or just stupid at this point...

 

[Enderfive]

My point is: If the Mafia is trying to frame me (which I think they are), and Mulbery is NOT doing that (which at least the way I interpret her posts is true) then Mulbery must not be mafia.
Well maybe not must, but you get the idea.

why do you feel so strong about the mafia trying to frame you

 

[Ltin]

why do you feel so strong about the mafia trying to frame you

I don't neccesarily feel strongly about it, but HK IS dead so
I mean I don't have any other ideas, and the only other theory seems to be that I am scum, which I can clearly see is false.