Mafia: Saints & Sinners - GAME OVER MAFIA WIN

[sessybessy]

Im already sounding the war horn!
I am curious whether you would be okay with voting HK or skele with me then?

I'd like to hear your reasoning for lynching them in more depth first

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I don't think we should kill alisha (or myself obv) today but Im willing to come on her tomorrow. If she's really scum then pushing me so hard now will put her in a very bad position tomorrow when I flip town. Fog is someone I also town read this game. I still feel like HK, skele and sessy are all good lynches because IMO they seem less towny and helpful than other people and are only around just to put some messages.

if you think scum are unlikely to push so hard on you then why are you willing to lynch her tomorrow, just not today?

horrible options. i kinda liked sessy's posts, so im going to give her a town vibe. skele is mia but i dunno, doesnt feel right. and me, well thats just a no go. i felt you put those 3 for a bait, and even after what inf pointed out, i thought it could be an elaborate bait. but you still seem quite adamant. ima hop on my fence for a sec and say that might be because you havent been here for a while, but we 3 are extroardinary lurkers (thx mars), especially day 0, wanting us lynched based on that is iffy, even more so since you are accusing us of something that would fit you aswell.

my vibe eye <0> still not good on alisha, but id hate to lynch her since based of a scum vibe where I feel she is planning something. i love fences, and she could be town planning something.

im actually gonna take some more stances so infy hopefuly thinks im town, ima give a town-ish vibe to sessy, tim, and aqua. i think i put some bits here and there that foreshadowed those vibes, but with a deadline coming up, ill say it again.

i think i wouldnt mind lynching among infy, mars, unu, or vat. i guess vat and unu are slightly biased because they said i could be scum. i dont know truly, but a lynch seems better than no lynch. mars feels a bit less intense than last game, but that could have its reasons.

this is a very town sounding post

i think i wouldnt mind lynching among infy, mars, unu, or vat. i guess vat and unu are slightly biased because they said i could be scum. i dont know truly, but a lynch seems better than no lynch. mars feels a bit less intense than last game, but that could have its reasons.

why am i on that list?

also like i said earlier, with 12 players no lynching gives us 1 extra night with no less lynches so imo nling is better today unless we're confident, assuming nights are overall gonna be more informative for town than they are gonna be deadly

Inf - Slightly Scummy, actually. He feels a lot more calculated this game, being careful enough to not get into tunneling.

i dont disagree with your reason but i do disagree with your conclusion

I just have had this feeling he's setting me up to be lynched later and doesn't want to do it now because me flipping town would put the spotlight on someone he doesn't want the spotlight on.

who would lynching you put on the spotlight if we lynch you today?

Timdood - Town for outing himself alongside me.

do you not think maf could have/know about sinners existing? why is tim town for outing himself as a sinner?

Do I trust Alisha 100%, no. Do I trust anybody 100%, no. I mean my theory on Alisha could just as easily be transferred onto Tim. However, I don't think that either person deserves to be lynched rn. M

but what changed in the last few posts where you went from thinking alisha should be lynched vs suddenly thinking she's probably town

why do i vaguely remember a game where alisha was also involved in betrayal of some sort. is my brain making it up or did that happen?

i think it happened in fog's game

 

[Timdood3]

reminder we're under 12 hours away from another classic escr day 0 no lynch

That's why we call it Day 0, because we all know nothing will really come of it.

 

[HKCaper]

why am i on that list?

neutral vibe on you, if it comes down to it i wouldnt mind lynching you, rather you than a no lynch. thats why.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

me

but seriously I've said multiple fucking times we should lynch either Alisha or Tim, whichever town deems more scummy. It's quite clear that the mafia will know how deals with the devil work as they have to participate into them so either of them could be mafia, not lynching them leaves them open to be forced into a deal with the devil and/or targeted for whatever mafia wincon/advantage bullshit that goes on below the surface. The only disadvantage is if the mafia need to kill these sinners then we're 1 day closer to a mafia victory which, as some sinners are still unknown, is potentially meaningless.

assuming there are 3 maf/potentially 3 maf at some point, which i think there will be since most games have 1/4 of players be maf, maf will have control of the vote after we lynch wrong three times unless we lynch scum, even if all sinners aren't dead yet

so we get two practice lynches until we're in mylo

if we do what you say and use one of those lynches on a sinner who we don't necessarily even scumread then we get 1 practice lynch and then mylo

the odds of us winning the game at that point are pretty low

and it might not even be a good idea since we know nothing about how detrimental the consequences of deals are to town, or whether it's even bad to leave them alive instead of lynching them at all

not to mention that if maf have an ability to force a deal it's probably a 1-per-night thing imo, meaning regardless of whether we lynch alisha or tim or not, maf still can force a deal with 1 of them, so nothing changed other than wasting a lynch on a sinner

 

[Infected_alien8_]

neutral vibe on you, if it comes down to it i wouldnt mind lynching you, rather you than a no lynch. thats why.

kinda rude

but why are you against a no lynch today

 

[Aqua]

That's why we call it Day 0, because we all know nothing will really come of it.

refer back to literally every game ever because I cba to explain why day 0 lynches are important, you've played with me numerous times, you've heard this debate - pls don't

anyway I'm gone for an hour or two I'll hop on any reasonable lynch when I'm back Infected_alien8_ do your magic x

 

[Aqua]

potentially 3 maf at some point,

this doesn't check out if we're killing the people who will become maf lmao

 

[Infected_alien8_]

refer back to literally every game ever because I cba to explain why day 0 lynches are important, you've played with me numerous times, you've heard this debate - pls don't

anyway I'm gone for an hour or two I'll hop on any reasonable lynch when I'm back Infected_alien8_ do your magic x

someone's not been reading my posts

 

[Infected_alien8_]

this doesn't check out if we're killing the people who will become maf lmao

but we can't assume that's the case

even if sinners can become maf there could be more than 2 sinners and therefore still 3 mafia at some point

 

[Aqua]

if we do what you say and use one of those lynches on a sinner who we don't necessarily even scumread then we get 1 practice lynch and then mylo

also that implies a) they are both sinners and b) once again this ignores doctors and all other potential quirks/mechanics that haven't made themselves present in the game yet

and c) if it is conversion then you know the story

no need to restate myself but the positives definitely outway the negatives IMO and even if not it's certainly preferable to a no lynch day 0

 

[Timdood3]

this doesn't check out if we're killing the people who will become maf lmao

Can you talk me through why you believe in alignment shifting?

and b) once again this ignores doctors and all other potential quirks/mechanics that haven't made themselves present in the game yet

You mean the unnecessary mechanics we don't need to win?

 

[Infected_alien8_]

also that implies a) they are both sinners and b) once again this ignores doctors and all other potential quirks/mechanics that haven't made themselves present in the game yet

a) i mean i have no real reason to doubt either of them yet
b) how would a doctor protect them from a deal? sure there could be a role that protects from deals but i have 0 reason to believe thats the case, banking on their presence and/or the fact one of tim/alisha is lying seems crazy

and c) if it is conversion then you know the story

?

no need to restate myself but the positives definitely outway the negatives IMO and even if not it's certainly preferable to a no lynch day 0

disagree

and no lynch day 0 this game is actually a good option since we don't lose any lynches but gain an extra night of information gathering

i'm only gonna vote to lynch if im confident since then obv its better to kill scum and stop scum PR then no lynching but otherwise im fine no lynching today

 

[Stranger from Myst Island]

Votecount 6: 7 Hours until Deadline!​

Infected_Alien8_ - HKCaper, Vatumok [L-5]
HKCaper - Unusual_Dood [L-6]
Everyone - Timdood3 [L-6]
Vatumok - Alisha [L-6]
Alisha - Aqua [L-6]

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch and 6 votes to no-lynch. If hammer is not reached by the deadline, nobody will be lynched.

Click here for day 0 deadline!

 

[HKCaper]

kinda rude

but why are you against a no lynch today

no lynch is weak

in fact
unvote
vote vatumok

 

[MarsKid]

i find this reasonable, but then there must be some interaction with these roles and maf. tim seems a lot more reserved about all this, and with alisha im getting a chaotic vibe.

Alisha is throwing out a lot with certainty but is also chaotic at the same time? Off to me that you consider them both calculating and off their rocker. imo this whole thing is just the Notty effect all over again.

cant you just let me lurk day 0 geez. dont make me get on my fence. aqua passes the vibe check (weird ik)

Keep giving me content and it'll all be just fine. And how does that vibe check work for you?

alisha - i think they're probs town but planning on becoming scum. i agree with hk that she has a chaotic vibe this game. i get the impression she's not trying to get too invested in it and therefore not being as cautious/worried about jumping too fast into a wrong move as she usually is as town, and i think it's since she's planning on switching alignment since that'd be in character for her. i think if she was scum she'd be trying to imitate being more cautious/concerned than what she is, so i don't think she's scum right now, just that she's planning on betraying town if she can. if alignment switching does turn out to be a thing she's probs gonna be my #1 suspect

Vat being clumsy means they are possibly town, but Alisha being clumsy indicates potential maf/switcher; contradictory here. Plus this assumes
1) Alignment change is a thing. IDK why this is becoming a common thread.
2) Assuming alignment change is possible, there are no consequences.
Given the theme it's undeniable that trying to make a deal will come at a cost. If swapping to maf was so easy, anyone that could make a deal would make a deal b/c it'd be an auto-win to just immediately stack the maf team.

skele - slight town. i think skele's meta is that when he's scum he's prickly and when he's town he's more playful. he was prickly last game and i almost mentioned it, but then i didnt since i hadn't played with him in a while so i didnt trust the meta anymore, but turns out he was scum, and now this game he doesn't seem prickly at all, so i wonder if the meta still applies. but i think the prickliness probably comes from being nervous about others suspecting him, and so given how he did well last game it could be that the prickliness has gone even if he's scum this time since he's more confident, but for now i slight townread him

beta and sessy - im grouping these two together since i have basically the exact same read on them both. they feel townie in their tone of their posts, but their latching onto my vat push felt odd. like, their reasons mentioned that vat scumreading skele was suspicious because skele had barely posted, even after i'd explained that vat didn't suspect skele for anything he said, it was the fact he'd barely posted. i could easily see this just being a miscommunication though, so it doesn't bother me too much, but it did raise my eyebrow. also, beta made this one post where he seemed to be catching up on the game but he only quoted sessy and that seemed an odd coincidence as well. i wonder whether they feel more comfortable speaking to sessy since its their partner. they've only actually directly spoken to sessy so far, except for when they spoke to me but thats since i asked them a question. this feels like such a tiny point but figured i should mention it anyways. if vat does turn out to be scum though then beta and sessy will become strong townreads for me since i don't see them bussing so early on like that.

Solid solving. Beta's posting is empty and I'm not a fan of sess's content. But assuming a vat scum flip, Beta and Sessy both being trs doesn't account for the fact they could easily be w/t instead considering Beta is sheeping sess.

aqua - neutral. he's been very anti-deal-with-the-devil but i could see him doing that just since he realized that town would realize making deals is bad anyway so he may as well take credit for pushing that agenda.

In what way does neutral apply here? Neutral as in scum and town vibes cancel out or you just don't have a read? Null for me is when a player basically sends no signals out that can be investigated into; Aqua def has enough content to gain more than just a shrug.

I personally town-read both Tim & Alisha rn, and I think there is the potential that their ability may come in useful later down the line

What makes Tim/Alisha t/t for you?

Are you suspecting me because of my theory crafting? That's all I can really think of to have atsuspicion against me, other than that I don't get it...I'd like a more in depth explanation other than "only around to put some messages". I don't have a deep knowledge of mafia mechanics and how it all works so, like I've explained, theory crafting is my only way of helping the town.

I sus you b/c #321. Do you have a response?

horrible options. i kinda liked sessy's posts, so im going to give her a town vibe. skele is mia but i dunno, doesnt feel right. and me, well thats just a no go. i felt you put those 3 for a bait, and even after what inf pointed out, i thought it could be an elaborate bait. but you still seem quite adamant. ima hop on my fence for a sec and say that might be because you havent been here for a while, but we 3 are extroardinary lurkers (thx mars), especially day 0, wanting us lynched based on that is iffy, even more so since you are accusing us of something that would fit you aswell.

Playing enough maf makes me inclined to see your lurking as a ping for me so it's far from baseless. Lurking in general is a pain.

i think i wouldnt mind lynching among infy, mars, unu, or vat. i guess vat and unu are slightly biased because they said i could be scum. i dont know truly, but a lynch seems better than no lynch. mars feels a bit less intense than last game, but that could have its reasons.

In fairness, I jumped a bit in the middle so I'm still wrapping my head around things.

I mean everybody seems to be pushing for a D0 lynch, and in all fairness; if we end up lynching a townie and maf get a kill tonight then we are already 2 players down and with as little information as we have been given is it worth the risk, or should we wait at least a night cycle to get a better understanding of what this game is about?

1) Not everyone is pushing a lynch. Exaggeration
2) Lynches give info through wagonomics. For D0 into D1 that's a treasure trove of info. The whole mentality of 'the nightkill offers more' is always poor b/c it assumes maf will make a hit that will give town info, when maf will always opt to either remove a threat (generallly a clear/widespread tr) or a milquetoast user that gives no info in flipping.

and no lynch day 0 this game is actually a good option since we don't lose any lynches but gain an extra night of information gathering

i'm only gonna vote to lynch if im confident since then obv its better to kill scum and stop scum PR then no lynching but otherwise im fine no lynching today

D0 last game you pushed for a lynch as town, now you push for a D0 nl. Both times you said it was the right play. NAGL

 

[sessybessy]

Comes across as very specific imo for just a theory.

Assuming devil is in the dark, ruins the setup tbh; maf could very easily accidentally hit him N1 and there goes the deal-making aspect this game seems to hinge on. Either they are one-shot bp then or they're in maf team from the get-go.



This was brought up before you made this post.




Vat's posting is very oddly distant but he has a point in that his Skele 'read' has had more people talking about it than Vat themselves. I get it's a shoddy read to toss out but it got zero-ed in on quick. Obv the counter is that it was a throaway LAMIST read but the focus on it is compelling.

Adding that extra post is there just to cover your ass if a read goes wrong and I don't like it.

I read this and I have no response ? I know no more than you do at this, assuming you’re town, point and my theories are just wild guesses. Get a slight feeling you could be defending Vat but that’s honestly just because I’ve been targeting him for a while now

 

[sessybessy]

I read this and I have no response ? I know no more than you do at this, assuming you’re town, point and my theories are just wild guesses. Get a slight feeling you could be defending Vat but that’s honestly just because I’ve been targeting him for a while now

I realise this is a response but y’know I have no bite-back or counter theory

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Vat being clumsy means they are possibly town, but Alisha being clumsy indicates potential maf/switcher; contradictory here.

i didn't say alisha is potential maf, i said i think she's town but wanting to become maf. vat ignoring easy ways out of suspicion/digging a hole for himself felt townie to me. alisha's chaotic vibe felt like she's not invested in the game and i think it's since she's planning to switch alignment. her open chaoticness/lack of caution feels town since i think she'd try to fake cautiousness more as scum.

Plus this assumes
1) Alignment change is a thing. IDK why this is becoming a common thread.
2) Assuming alignment change is possible, there are no consequences.

it doesn't assume those things, it assumes alisha believes those things, which she's already said. she thinks the consequence of the deal is switching alignments and that's it, from what i understood

If swapping to maf was so easy, anyone that could make a deal would make a deal b/c it'd be an auto-win to just immediately stack the maf team.

alisha thinks there's a cap where only up to 2 people can be converted iirc

Solid solving. Beta's posting is empty and I'm not a fan of sess's content. But assuming a vat scum flip, Beta and Sessy both being trs doesn't account for the fact they could easily be w/t instead considering Beta is sheeping sess.

i don't see either beta or sessy agreeing with suspicion on a partner so early like that, so if vat's scum i think both beta and sessy are strong town

In what way does neutral apply here? Neutral as in scum and town vibes cancel out or you just don't have a read? Null for me is when a player basically sends no signals out that can be investigated into; Aqua def has enough content to gain more than just a shrug.

neutral as in i don't lean either way. he's got a lot of content but none of it indicates alignment for me. it's mostly argueing we shouldn't make a deal + we should lynch between alisha and tim, and i can easily see aqua doing that as both town or scum. and i have no gut feeling on him

what's your read on aqua?

D0 last game you pushed for a lynch as town, now you push for a D0 nl. Both times you said it was the right play. NAGL

since both were the right choices. last game we had 11 players so nling lost us a lynch compared to lynching, and id rather get more lynches above anything else. this game we have 12 so nling doesn't do that anymore, we get the same amount of lynches but also get a bonus extra night of actions. if i'm confident in finding scum then ill prefer to lynch them instead ofc but otherwise im happy to nl today

 

[sessybessy]

BetaPanda where you at bro apparently we’re partners in crime now

seriously though I’d like to hear your opinion on the game so far <3

 

[Alisha]

who would lynching you put on the spotlight if we lynch you today?

you, vat, possibly aqua and fog

 

[Alisha]

you not think maf could have/know about sinners existing? why is tim town for outing himself as a sinner?

he knew sinners could make devil deals and verified other things beyond simply being a sinner

 

[Infected_alien8_]

you, vat, possibly aqua and fog

why vat? he's not pushed on you, you've pushed on him - if you're town that doesn't mean vat's any more suspicious than before surely

me i can understand but im not afraid of leading lynches as scum and you know that

fog only scumread you after i said i thought you were town, so it cant be that i decided to townread you to prevent fog from looking bad

aqua chose to lynch tim over you, he only changed his mind after i already said i wanted to townread you, so again it cant be that i decided to townread you to stop aqua looking bad

 

[Infected_alien8_]

he knew sinners could make devil deals and verified other things beyond simply being a sinner

but if the devil is mafia then surely they could easily know this too

even if the devil isn't mafia, maf could've been told that. why are you ignoring that possibility when you yourself give scum information at the start of the game?

 

[Alisha]

why vat? he's not pushed on you, you've pushed on him - if you're town that doesn't mean vat's any more suspicious than before surely

he said he wants to save me for later

and my whole argument here is that people are planting seeds for lynching me later to score an easy mislynch; getting rid of me too soon will put the attention on those people i just named!