Inffy what is your current opinion on MoltenAshes as of right now - what makes you not suspect him, and what makes you suspect Weak?
IMO Weak's roleblocker claim doesn't really make him any less scummy but you pushing on Weak repeatedly I fail to understand right now. I'm still okay with lynching Weak but I think you should justify clearly what's going on. Also I think you could consider claiming at this point.
IMO Weak's roleblocker claim doesn't really make him any less scummy but you pushing on Weak repeatedly I fail to understand right now. I'm still okay with lynching Weak but I think you should justify clearly what's going on. Also I think you could consider claiming at this point.
Well...I want to believe it. But statistically, I can't justify not lynching you.
The chance that we have a mafia roleblocker is 100%. This is evidenced by Ernie and myself accounting for 3 PR spots.
The chance that we have a town roleblocker is (up to) four 5% chances. I've forgotten how to calculate probability, but that chance is remarkably low, and a hell of a lot lower than 100%.
Vote TheWeakGuy
The chance that we have a mafia roleblocker is 100%. This is evidenced by Ernie and myself accounting for 3 PR spots.
The chance that we have a town roleblocker is (up to) four 5% chances. I've forgotten how to calculate probability, but that chance is remarkably low, and a hell of a lot lower than 100%.
Vote TheWeakGuy
Okay, so I went back to take a look at what Weak posted in day 0 for his reads, and I found this:
Why did you leave Fog out of your reads and then roleblock him Weak? What's the rationale?
Considering all the calculations here, the chances of you truly being a Town roleblocker would be:
P(roleblocker | rolls CCVTTTx) + P(roleblocker | rolls CCVTTxx) + P(roleblocker | rolls CCVTxxx) + P(roleblocker | rolls CCVxxxx)
= (0.353 * 0.1) + 2*(0.212 * 0.1) + 3*(0.071 * 0.1) + 4*(0.01 * 0.1)
= 0.103
= 10.3%
If there really are masons at this point they *should* claim because it would completely overrule the possibilities by a lot and it would more or less 100% prove them. If there is a mason pair the chances of Weak being roleblocker drops directly to 0.91%.
Bullshit! At this point a mason should claim to narrow down the claimspace to rule out and confirm that you are Mafia. In fact we probably could go with a massclaim tomorrow.
I don't see why a mason shouldn't claim at this point - if they do they are confirming two Townies and with you being lynched we'd be further confirming that those two are definitely legitimate with a probability of 0.91% that they could be fake. If Mafia did hit one of them then we'd have definite answers tomorrow regarding the other.
If he has exactly three rolls for sure then the chance would be 0.1 * 3 = 0.3 = 30%. The reason why that number from before is smaller is because I factored in the chances of those respective setups being rolled.
That said, with what we have now statistically Weak has a 10.3% of being Town and 89.7% chance of being Mafia - provided that your 1-shot vig claim is true.
My bad - thanks for that - that makes it even more improbable then.
If CCVTTTx is true:
Weak has a 5% chance of being genuine roleblocker.
If CCVTTxx is true:
Weak has a 10% chance of being genuine roleblocker.
If CCVTxxx is true:
Weak has a 15% chance of being genuine roleblocker.
If CCVxxxx is true:
Weak has a 20% chance of being genuine roleblocker.
Considering what Tim just said, doing recalculations:
P(roleblocker | rolls CCVTTTx) + P(roleblocker | rolls CCVTTxx) + P(roleblocker | rolls CCVTxxx) + P(roleblocker | rolls CCVxxxx)
= (0.353 * 0.05) + 2*(0.212 * 0.05) + 3*(0.071 * 0.05) + 4*(0.01 * 0.05)
= 0.0515
= 5.15%
Correct me if I'm wrong again I'm a bit of a bobblehead.
And you know what that is?
Not helpful. If you are town, that's unfortunate, and you got unlucky. There are ways we could test your claim at night, but none of those can actually be relied on or trusted.