Market Crash [Game Over]

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Ltin

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Saturday, April 20

Oak63 (Investor) has been killed.
Bets on which players will be alive at the end

Samlen (Terrorist) has been killed.
Mulbery (Terrorist) has been killed.
Generic Mafia

It is now Day 1.With 12 players it takes 7 to lynch and 6 to no lynch.
 
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MarsKid

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That's pretty great luck that the Mafia is starting with two members down.

Plus, a third party died, so the town didn't lose anyone. This is pretty much a perfect start.
 

MarsKid

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So it would seem, assuming Mafia bumped off Oak.

Because of the nature of Day 0 and the deaths we got this night, there's not much to go on at the moment. Pretty much everyone was joking around, so everything at this point is a shot in the dark.

If anything, all there is to use are past experiences and basic hunches, which can be unreliable.
 

Nottykitten

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So uhm considering 2 Mafia dies(presumably, it would be amazing if there was some sort of janitor role that hoodini'd them except they didn't disappear and just changed roles upon death) how about a no lynch? I know trying to lynch a Mafia is advantagious and all but its basically day 0 but we have less Mafia? Lets not lynch or out PR's but instead give our PR's some time to investigate.

Vote No Lynch
 

JKangaroo

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Nice job everyone, that's probably one of the best first days in Topian Mafia history.
Now we just have to make the cop doesn't die on the very first day and it'll be a new record for us!
Fantastic job.
But really, this is great.
This is actually a great time to take a look and make a guess at what could be expected, just based off of how the Mafia/Town ratio seems to trend in a lot of these games.

So here's the current players and our dead amigo's: (shamelessly stolen from Ltin's first post on page 1)
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PLAYERS:
1. Dessern5
2. CaffeinatedKitty
3. Wimali
4. Timdood3
5. Samlen - Terrorist(Generic Mafia)
6. Jkangaroo
7. Ooglie101
8. Oak63 - Investor
9. Nottykitten
10. Mulbery - Terrorist(Generic Mafia)
11. Infected_alien8_
12. Vatumok
13. Marskid
14. hipman500
15. webpaige
-----------------------------------------------
So let's take a look at our two dead Mafioso's.
Now I'm guessing that by "generic mafia" that just means they were vanilla mafia members that really didn't have any special PR abilities--- but I guess "generic" could also mean its the generic mafia faction and there could be another? Doubtful since we're in a bit of a low player count game so I'm just gonna disregard that idea for now.

But I guess usually, Mafia groups tend to be around 3-5 people proportional/depending on the size of the starting player count(or more if there's a 2nd faction):
If there were 3 mafia that would be 1/5th of the town, which to me feels too low.
So there's probably either 4 or 5, I'm betting on 4 since having it be 1/3rd of the total players feels a bit too big x).

And with (im guessing(?)) third party down with Oak, it's likely there's only 1 or 2 other third-parties, unless this ends up being a pretty third-party heavy game like TBD was (but I don't think it'll get to that level x] )
Even though Oak was third party his role doesnt seem to really make him evil/against town just loyal to his bets, so I guess he could still win if his guesses win! (im guessing separate from a mafia/town win)
And so I guess that leaves probably a serial killer for another third-party role we can guess exists based on who died.

So I guess a ratio of 9 town/2 third-parties/4 Mafia's is a good bet to go on?
 

JKangaroo

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And as much as I think a no-lynch sounds appealing, I feel like we should try to lynch someone, or at least make the most of our day.
Like, did anything happen to a power role last night that might give us a clue into potential mafia/third parties, like maybe if a watcher exists, and they saw someone visit someone/etc.

I dont know.
 

MarsKid

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Power roles really shouldn't be outing themselves this early on in the game.

Given this a closed set-up, there will be a time and place for the crazy mass claiming that will inevitably ensure.
 
  • Agree
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