I'm going to bed, I won't be able to read/post untill tomorrow evening, but as of now my biggest suspicion is on Molten
wow I slept for like 15 1/4 hours and was expecting quite a bit to catch up on but it's quiet
I don't find anyone else's behaviour suspicious enough right now to feel as though I can confidently justify lynching them over molten when I have several reasons to suspect molten and have just been ignoring him based on yesterday's theory which was at least partially wrong (it's possible both TWG and molten were mislynches and that could also explain the patterns yesterday, but also possible the mafia were just behaving in a way I wouldn't have behaved in)
And I agree molten following choco on you like that is very weird and I don't understand it but I'll wait for his response
I also agree choco is acting extremely strangely and I'd be suspicious of him if it weren't for the fact he's uncc doctor - I've forgotten the letters we've agreed upon so far but didn't we decide that there was at least 1 PR left, meaning since choco is the only claimed one he's basically proven town?
My opinions on everybody would be:
Alisha - slight town, just the way I feel but I probably shouldn't give any weight to that considering how wrong I've been on how I feel about people this game, but ever since somewhere around yesterday she just started sounding townie to me. I struggle to read alisha though and I don't have anything concrete or substantial so my opinion on her shouldn't be valued much (I feel like I had this exact read at the very start of the game)
UNU - ehh, neutral probably? His defence against my accusations all make sense and are fair enough, it's just about whether I actually believe him or not and I don't particularly lean one way or another on that. After being wrong about what he was doing yesterday I don't know what to think of him anymore so I'll just stick to neutral
Shadow - I still think he's town because I have an idea of what he'd behave like as mafia and this isn't it at all. I'd be surprised/impressed if I'm wrong about him, although since we're getting later in the game I should probably doubt myself about him more but I don't think today's the day to do that for me since I think there are others who are more likely to be mafia
Tim - I have no reason to doubt him so town
Fog - I still think he's town too for similar reasons for shadow except I don't feel quite as confident about it, but there's been nothing he's done that's made me suspicious of him, and if I were to lynch him it'd just be because I've got nobody left who I find more suspicious than him. Then again after writing the stuff below I've realized that he'd actually make a lot of sense to be a mafia partner to molten
Choco - proven town?
Molten - strange choices of votes, didn't like how he suddenly agreed with alisha about choco being suspicious based on pretty much nothing substantial at all yesterday, if he's mafia and wins I'll feel pretty embarrassed since out of everyone he did the most eyebrow raising things for me that I chose to ignore. The one thing that makes me hesitate is how basically everyone was alright lynching him yesterday and nobody was strongly defending him or strongly attacking him, and I'd expect mafia to either bus or save him to make the situation into something productive but maybe the mafia just didn't think to do that or something
I just realized this reads list means I'm definitely wrong about at least 2 mafia. Out of everyone it looks like molten, UNU and then fog/alisha would be the team I predict? And that I'm wrong about either alisha or fog
Thinking back, fog didn't actually answer my question about who he'd prefer to lynch out of TWG and molten until after I'd posted my case for why I thought TWG was scum, but afterwards he did then agree that TWG was more suspicious. At the time I didn't think anything of it since by that time I'd posted my argument about TWG being scum, so anyone who agreed with me after that I just thought probably saw what I was seeing, and I interpreted fog's post as 'fog's daystart opinion of TWG being suspicious has been reinforced by my argument and that's why he voted TWG'. But maybe if fog wasn't inactive or if I waited before posting my argument, he'd have pushed for TWG there too, and he'd have actually fit the description of what I was looking for, and we just didn't get to see it properly because he wasn't active to show it. This would still mean that the third partner still didn't do as I expected but only one of them doing that as opposed to both of them seems slightly more likely so maybe this is actually what happened?
It feels kinda stubborn of me to go back to yesterday's way of thinking again after it led to a mislynch yesterday but this actually makes some sense? But I don't want to think about that too much since it is entirely possible the mafia are just behaving in ways that I wouldn't expect and I don't think we should lynch based on this, so I'd say ignore this idea for today and maybe come back to it tomorrow if we do end up lynching molten and he is mafia
For now though with this aside, overall I do think molten is the person I'd feel the most happy lynching today so far
personally I'm kinda leaning on lynching molten rn too, I have a feeling that we found a mafia already and I had quite a few reasons to suspect him and then I just dropped all of that because of my intuition which has been completely wrong this game and because I believed the mafia would act in a certain way but maybe they just didn't
I don't find anyone else's behaviour suspicious enough right now to feel as though I can confidently justify lynching them over molten when I have several reasons to suspect molten and have just been ignoring him based on yesterday's theory which was at least partially wrong (it's possible both TWG and molten were mislynches and that could also explain the patterns yesterday, but also possible the mafia were just behaving in a way I wouldn't have behaved in)
And I agree molten following choco on you like that is very weird and I don't understand it but I'll wait for his response
I also agree choco is acting extremely strangely and I'd be suspicious of him if it weren't for the fact he's uncc doctor - I've forgotten the letters we've agreed upon so far but didn't we decide that there was at least 1 PR left, meaning since choco is the only claimed one he's basically proven town?
My opinions on everybody would be:
Alisha - slight town, just the way I feel but I probably shouldn't give any weight to that considering how wrong I've been on how I feel about people this game, but ever since somewhere around yesterday she just started sounding townie to me. I struggle to read alisha though and I don't have anything concrete or substantial so my opinion on her shouldn't be valued much (I feel like I had this exact read at the very start of the game)
UNU - ehh, neutral probably? His defence against my accusations all make sense and are fair enough, it's just about whether I actually believe him or not and I don't particularly lean one way or another on that. After being wrong about what he was doing yesterday I don't know what to think of him anymore so I'll just stick to neutral
Shadow - I still think he's town because I have an idea of what he'd behave like as mafia and this isn't it at all. I'd be surprised/impressed if I'm wrong about him, although since we're getting later in the game I should probably doubt myself about him more but I don't think today's the day to do that for me since I think there are others who are more likely to be mafia
Tim - I have no reason to doubt him so town
Fog - I still think he's town too for similar reasons for shadow except I don't feel quite as confident about it, but there's been nothing he's done that's made me suspicious of him, and if I were to lynch him it'd just be because I've got nobody left who I find more suspicious than him. Then again after writing the stuff below I've realized that he'd actually make a lot of sense to be a mafia partner to molten
Choco - proven town?
Molten - strange choices of votes, didn't like how he suddenly agreed with alisha about choco being suspicious based on pretty much nothing substantial at all yesterday, if he's mafia and wins I'll feel pretty embarrassed since out of everyone he did the most eyebrow raising things for me that I chose to ignore. The one thing that makes me hesitate is how basically everyone was alright lynching him yesterday and nobody was strongly defending him or strongly attacking him, and I'd expect mafia to either bus or save him to make the situation into something productive but maybe the mafia just didn't think to do that or something
I just realized this reads list means I'm definitely wrong about at least 2 mafia. Out of everyone it looks like molten, UNU and then fog/alisha would be the team I predict? And that I'm wrong about either alisha or fog
Thinking back, fog didn't actually answer my question about who he'd prefer to lynch out of TWG and molten until after I'd posted my case for why I thought TWG was scum, but afterwards he did then agree that TWG was more suspicious. At the time I didn't think anything of it since by that time I'd posted my argument about TWG being scum, so anyone who agreed with me after that I just thought probably saw what I was seeing, and I interpreted fog's post as 'fog's daystart opinion of TWG being suspicious has been reinforced by my argument and that's why he voted TWG'. But maybe if fog wasn't inactive or if I waited before posting my argument, he'd have pushed for TWG there too, and he'd have actually fit the description of what I was looking for, and we just didn't get to see it properly because he wasn't active to show it. This would still mean that the third partner still didn't do as I expected but only one of them doing that as opposed to both of them seems slightly more likely so maybe this is actually what happened?
It feels kinda stubborn of me to go back to yesterday's way of thinking again after it led to a mislynch yesterday but this actually makes some sense? But I don't want to think about that too much since it is entirely possible the mafia are just behaving in ways that I wouldn't expect and I don't think we should lynch based on this, so I'd say ignore this idea for today and maybe come back to it tomorrow if we do end up lynching molten and he is mafia
For now though with this aside, overall I do think molten is the person I'd feel the most happy lynching today so far
I think the only way it's possible is if there's a 1 serial killer, which doesn't seem to be the case
The letters we have are CCBV, and we only have 1 PR claim left, which means there are two possibilities:
If choco is telling the truth:
CCBVDTT
Which means there's 1 Godfather, 1 Roleblocker and 1 Goon
If choco is lying and is mafia:
CCBVTTT
Which means there are two goons, a roleblocker and a serial killer
That'd mean the serial killer didn't get any kills all game which seems like a scenario not worth thinking about today
I think the only other scenario where it's possible is where tim is also lying and is mafia too in which case there are two goons and a roleblocker and no serial killer but I also don't think that's worth thinking about today
Out of curiousity how do you view Choco and Molten's vores for me right now
Because those look like textbook blitz votes but since Choco has been my white whale the entire game my perception might be skewed
The reason why I voted Alisha, is due to TWGs scumreads, which she successfully got absolutely no one but Choco to talk about. After I found out TWG was town, I found Alisha to be the leading factor on getting either me or TWG lynched, both whom are town.