Statistically, it's pretty unlikely no one's mafia in that last.
Why? 3/17 or 3/14 if you take away me/notty and Jivvi as assumed town in that scenarion, is a pretty small likelihood for Mafia to be in there, so why did you say you were sure some people were Mafia on the list? I don't really understand what you mean.
Put yourself in my situation: if you were called mafia in a list of people when you're town, what else would you say?
Statistically, it's pretty unlikely no one's mafia in that last. I stated what everyone had in common, which came down to pretty much ratings, vibes, and inactivity. Stating that it's outright wrong didn't feel right to me because I thought your theory had some credibility to it. Jivvi had been silent ever since your post, and the next post was to deflect your argument. While everyone on that list have been inactive for their own reasons, including myself, I wouldn't just consider them confirmed.
But why do you think Jivvi's list had some credibility to it, when your own knowledge of your own role supposedly proved that Jivvi was lying? Idk, if I was on that list and was town, the natural conclusion I'd originally jump to would be "well jivvi was obviously lying about his mafia partners and trying to get townies lynched, so I'm not about to trust any of the other names on that list". Did you think maybe he lied about some and told the truth about others to hope that we mislynched one who was town and then considered the rest to probably be town too or something, even though they were Mafia, or something?
While everyone on that list have been inactive for their own reasons, including myself, I wouldn't just consider them confirmed.
I agree, I don't consider you/oak/ltin 'confirmed' at all, but I see you as most likely to be Mafia at this point, especially Ltin after his claim which basically makes it so he's either Mafia or ridiculously unlucky this game.
It's good that you got such a lead, but I'm hesitant to just go down the list in case we miss obvious clues.
I agree that we shouldn't just close ourselves off to other potential scum, we should still poke each other and keep an eye out for others, but we also have to go with our most solid lead, as always, and that's the list, so until something else more solid comes up, I'd advocating for using the list.
Why are you so confident someone wrote this message? It might be a game mechanic, whether through a pool of messages/players or a report from the host.
It just seems most likely to me that it's something written by someone, because there aren't really any alternatives that I can think of that are realistic. I don't see the host getting involved in the game and posting a report like that, because the essense of Mafia is that the players use their roles and communication to work through the game, so to have just a host-induced confirmed inno would ruin it and I doubt Ender did that. I also doubt that there would be some mechanic where someone visits someone and their allignment is posted for all to see because that's OP - cops are balanced because they have to expose themselves in order to make themselves useful, and there's always the chance they're lying because noone can see their PM, and thus Mafia can have a chance to CC, and people can be skeptical of trusting reports. Plus, we already had a cop, and I don't think it'd be balanced for there to be a second cop who not only acts as yet another investigative role in this already rather heavy investigative setup, but one which can post their result for all to see without claiming. And the whole flavor of it being a notice makes sense to be written by someone, and I've seen roles like that before where people can write messages as notices so it'd make sense as to where Ender got the idea from.
Also, I doubt the person who wrote it will come forward if it is from a PR since they phrased it anonymously.
Well, they should, because they'd save us from mislynching and we don't know if that's going to be seriously winorlose detrimental to town because we don't know for sure how many mafia are left, or how many deaths there can be in one night. Plus we very likely have a doctor so they can be protected. But I don' think anyone's going to come forward because I think it's someone who's anti-town and can't justify why 'hipman500 is innocent'.
I don't know how they would receive additional information that hip is innocent if they already have the message role. (Cop + messenger?)
Exactly, which is why I don't think they can be cop, and thus they're lying when they say hip is innocent.
If this is from Ltin, who could be the mafia messsenger, perhaps his role is hip?
Ltin's name is hip, yeah
You said that you took Vatumok off the maybe-list later on, but he never got more active or helpful. In fact, I'm rather confused regarding that decision. gains the ability instead of a slow reveal like it seemed to start out as? No idea how likely this is, but just throwing it out there I guess.
Vatumok was never on the same Mafia list as you guys - you guys are on the list because Jivvi signalled you, Vat was on a seperate list as a bonus Mafia suspicion I had, not because he was inactive but primarily because Jivvi seemed to be reluctant to kill him n1 when I suggested we did, which I then realized wasn't exactly true:
When I was paraphrasing the chat, I realized that my memory is at fault here because I only asked to kill vat once, then Jivvi didn't respond but this was all very tight time-wise and people kept sending messages without reading the latest one so it's possible he didn't see it, he then made a post, and then I immediately asked again if we could kill vat or someone else, and he agreed. So it wasn't like I kept suggesting it and he kept ignoring me, so this point is pretty invalid now, and the fact I never got signalled about Vat makes me think he's not Mafia. I still think he's probably third party or something though.
To make it clearer how it happened (this is EXTREMELY paraphrased btw but just so you get the order of things)
Inf: kill vat not notty
jivvi: <responds to previous post before mine>
inf: kill vat or anyone else just not notty
jivvi: okay
I still think he's scummy because of his responses/lack of responsiveness but I find it more likely he's third party.
