We are using reads. Notty's plan isn't some 'throw all the civ claims in an RNG machine and hope for the best', it's literally narrowing down our pool of targets by half + using reads directed at those people.
Republic - Completed
- Thread starter Prizyms
- Start date
Notty's plan has better likelihood of success because we have 13 players to scumhunt in. Why would our chances be better if we instead opt for a 26 player pool, bearing in mind the PRs we have available this game
Actually the chances would be lower (or higher??) than 0.08% as that only applies if the town kill is the only kill active, blah blah blah.
The probabilities are literally only applicable if we
The probabilities are literally only applicable if we
If you're so eager to massclaim, why not start us off?
Explain to me how we have higher chances of lynching from a pool of 26 players vs a pool of 13 players, and why we have better chances of winning the game doing that as well.
That's fair- I feel as though I'd break under the responsibility of being on the council, so I'd rather not be elected, but I don't really have any good reason to say no, either, so i guess i can't really say anything ._.
Well, I'm against what you're suggesting, so of course you do- I expected that from you. If it helps-
i uh
feel that either you're anti-town as well, or just really like going for the ideas that i find too risky or reckless, since we tend to have clashing viewpoints on what is and is not a good idea
i feel like trying to explain to you why i think what i think will be like trying to kick down a brick wall, and i have no doubt you feel the same way towards me, since i still can't understand your explanations on why you think massclaiming is a good idea. and i also feel like, if i try to explain to you further what i think, you'll bulldozer through my words without actually addressing my concerns in a way that i can rest at ease with
with that said, i'm trying to muster up the motivation to explain my viewpoints further, but i can't, yet. maybe i will, later in the day- but right now, it feels pointless.
i can address one thing, though; it was something that occured to me only after i posted it, but i know my reasons;
i was thinking, at the time, 'i'd like to thank you for trusting me in that manner' but i didn't want to make a post just to do that- but then it occured to me what little basis hunter has for this and
we're trying to work towards a town victory. flawed judgement does not help towards a town victory. it leads to bias, and that sort of thing messes up a person's perspective towards who's suspicious and who's not.
say that this one person is a mafia member. another person who's town trusts this mafia member so much that they make excuses for weird behaviour, like why the mafia member think this idea that sounds really bad is a good idea. maybe they shift mindsets. maybe they bandwagon.
maybe, the mafia member is outed as one, and suspicion is immediately placed on the person who trusted them even though they meant well.
that's not a good thing. that's really not a good thing. i certainly went through that in a different forum game (survivor), and in real life. i am aware i'm still the type of person that trusts a person more than i should only to regret it, and i really don't want someone else to make the same mistake i am probably going to do somewhere down the line. we need people to make judgements as rational as possible, and though i'll try, what i feel tends to affect what i think, so as hypocritical as it is i felt that it was something that needs to be addressed.
moreover, it also requires the cooperation and support of literally every player in-game, and quite a few seem to be averse to doing so.
you'd have to convince a majority of the players here to claim, otherwise it's void.
you'd have to convince a majority of the players here to claim, otherwise it's void.
Okay so we don't have better chances doing it your way, we have better chances doing it the other way. We have significantly better chances in fact, despite those chances still being tiny because this game is extremely dificult for town. But you want to go with the less likely way because...
'it seems drastic'. Literally what does this even mean, you, hk, TWG, Danni and someone else probably who I forgot just keep using this same heuristic of 'massclaim is bad!' but none of you have provided any actual logic as to why that is. Why would holding off mass claiming be any better than massclaiming? Why would massclaiming not be good?
'the only benefit is you have various ccs'
as in we have a 100% chance of lynching a mafia every 2 days, and a 50% chance of lynching a mafia every day within those non-citizen CCs as well as a roughly 50% chance of lynching per day per citizen claim?
And yet you find this a small benefit?
I'm so lost
HONESTLY SAME, couldn't have put it better myself.
Honest to god, Fali is a sweet cinnamon roll of a human being (who may be a tad naive, but is at least self-aware of it!)
Figured this was the case and yeah, others should keep this in mind.
I'm going on the record as being for a mass claim.
^^^^^^^^^
if so many people are against it, it isn't going to work without you magically convincing them it's a good idea!!!
massclaims only work when everyone claims!!!!!!!!!!!!
There are plenty of people against what I'm suggesting, that's not why you're suspicious to me
I mean I don't really understand how you feel that way since I've taken time to address all of your concerns as far as I can tell and it all makes sense but if my explanations aren't working for you then maybe I should change the way I'm explaining things. I never intend on bulldozing through anyone's points at all, so I'm sorry if you think that's what you'd be dealing with in talking to me, though I'll admit I'm slightly confused as to where you reached that conclusion because I've addressed every argument made with a logical reason as to why I think they're incorrect rather than bulldozing through without addressing concerns.
The reason a massclaim is a good idea is because the Mafia have too many kills for us to realistically beat them by lynching out of a pool of 26 unconfirmed people. Each night we will likely lose 2/3 town, maybe more. This means that, as Notty showed, even if we lynch almost perfectly, we still lose the game because the Mafia simply overpower us. We have a 7/26 chance to lynch Mafia if we don't massclaim. That's about 27%. If we massclaim, we get counterclaims. If Mafia counter claim a PR, then we have 2 people claiming 1 role, meaning we get a 50% chance of lynching Mafia right there and then, and if we're wrong, we garuntee a successful lynch the next day because we know the other was lying. Compare this to the 27% chance of lynching a mafia which remains to be 27% if we're wrong. If Mafia claim citizens, we have a pool of citizens with likely a roughly 50% chance of lynching Mafia within them as well.
So that should show you that the odds of us successfully lynching Mafia is a huge amount higher if we massclaim. We need all the chance we can get because, again, this setup is dificult for town. If we mislynch a few times we lose.
Is that any clearer at all?
Or maybe people could answer my questions and realize that their arguments are flawed, cough
Dude you've given 0 arguments other than 'it seems drastic' and 'we only get ccs'
I've given about 100 valid arguments, never ignored any of your questions or doubts, and provided precise detail for my arguments
I am the one who is feeling like I'm hitting a brick wall
In addition to this, please vote for whether you'd like a Massclaim:
NoMass being no, YesMass being yes (or something easy to find, preferably bolded)
Aye
NoMass
Three relevant roles (vengeful, reticent, bulletproof):
- Hunter
- Unknown
- Unknown
- Infected_alien8_
Danni122112 if you could make a table for this that'd be great, I can't figure this shit out
No, I honestly want to get a vote to see how many people are actually for it since most of the conversation feels like it's been between you, me, and notty, and the others should have a chance to weigh in.
Also thank you One one two for going with the format thingy, this should make things much easier
But what about YOUR opinion. Why are you ignoring all the reasons your argument is flawed so that others can weigh in. I want to know why you still think massclaiming is a bad idea. Faliara you too.
The only way this is going to be productive at all is if we interact like this:
Person A: Point
Person B: Counter-argument, Point
Person A: Counter-argument, Point
Person B: Accepts point, changes mind
Whether it's you or me who changes our minds depends on who's arguments have the most weight to them. Right now I feel like I'm not getting much back in terms of counter-arguments so I'm just at a stalemate where I provide a counter-argument and people just shut down on me and refuse to budge and we're not getting anywhere. People don't want to massclaim no but maybe they would if they carried on the discussion, or maybe they'd make me realize why this idea is flawed.