Republic - Completed
- Thread starter Prizyms
- Start date
Well I was for Autocracy because I accepted that the revo wouldn't risk killing a town member anymore, but I just realized that they can in fact afford to kill one last townie
So if we do Autocracy, I think the revo will try to aim for the dictator
If they succeed, we're forced into Autocracy again because we stand no chance at winning unless we do Autocracy (see my numbers post earlier), meaning the revo likely will just keep shooting in the pool of 3 dictators and win
All of that relies on the fact the rev manages to kill the correct dictator tonight though, which is a 1/4 chance
So if we do Autocracy we have a 1/4 chance of it screwing us into a rev-trap
Autocracy is also more of a catylst, it either will help us a lot (if our dictator is accurate) or it will screw us over more (if our dictator is innaccurate)
If we do democracy though, we have less overall chances of winning because unless the poisoner dies within the next 2 days, if we mislynch we lose, game over
Uhmmm I think we should take the risk of Autocracy
1/4 chance to go wrong and have the dictator die, and then there's the risk of our dictator kills being inaccurate
With democracy we have a 5/6 chance of going wrong, possibly 4/5 the next day if we lynch Mafia
So TO CONCLUDE I think we should do Autocracy
If you don't want to aim for the dictator, which you shouldn't because if you miss then it was a pointless effort + you significantly reduce the chances of town pulling through, @REVOLUTIONARY
You need to kill one of these people tonight
TWG
HKCaper
Danni
LISTINGS
Rune
77thShad
UNU
Sploorky (assuming he claims citizen)
Jivvi (assuming he claims citizen)
Everyone else is an uncc town PR, meaning the Mafia are in this pool of players
Shoot in there and you have a 6/8 chance of successfully killing a Mafia
Same goes for you Mr/Mrs Dictator, aim in that pool
Obviously it's POSSIBLE (though such a tiny chance we should dismiss it for now) that one of the uncc PR is actually stealing Ltin's role but since that's extremely unlikely, aim in the pool above, because there's garuntee'd to be 5 Mafia in there 100% because there can't be more than 1 stealing Ltin's role, so aiming in that pool increases your chances
Plus, if Mafia did try to steal Ltin's role and guess it somehow, then that role is likely to be either a) Mafia rolecop, or b) one of the other weak Mafia roles taking a guess to force a CC
We (as in both town and the revo) really should be aiming to get the Mafia poisoner to give us the best chance at not having Mafia win the game and steal the win from us both, and since it's unlikely such an important Mafia role would cc a PR, you should aim in the pool of citizens
Wait nvm this is wrong, I was basing this off of the scenario where the Revo is dead aaaaaa
IDK WHICH IS BETTER ANYMORE
I don’t think I can do math, but shouldn’t there be 5 citizen and 5 mafia in this pool (if Ltin was granny) + 1 rev?
I count 9/11 here
I might just be plain stupid but
I’m just going of the theory that Ltin was the granny, and that is why no one was bus driven to the granny.
That leaves us with, why the fuck chose rune.
I have been thinking about this a lot and I’m atill confused.
That leaves us with, why the fuck chose rune.
I have been thinking about this a lot and I’m atill confused.
From what I remember... Hunter was already voting to subpoena Ltin while it was still a council, but after we all dissolved it, we just voted to install Hunter as the dictator straight away. I was hoping that Hunter would choose to interrogate Notty instead that night since it became possible upon the dissolving of the council that night (and mentioned it) but we didn't really try to suggest any other subpoena candidates otherwise, so it makes sense that Hunt would go for the person he initially voted to subpoena.
Oh right, I forgot Comp and Scrable
THE LIST WE SHOULD BE KILLING
TWG
HKCaper
Danni
LISTINGS
Rune
77thShad
UNU
Sploorky (assuming he claims citizen)
Jivvi (assuming he claims citizen)
Comp (assuming he claims citizen)
Scrable (assuming he claims citizen)
Alright.
I think dictatorship is the way to go for now, we need the bang for our buck the next days.
It’s bloody annoying that most of the citizen claims are so inactive.
you and oog's defense of notty over the past three days regardless of what sort of reasoning we all used to argue against it is what makes many of us consider you really suspicious, even more so now that notty's been outed as a dissenter