Republic - Completed

Danni122112

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I mean I disagree that it would have been gamethrowing, obviously not my choice to make but personally if I was host I'd have considered it a valid (albeit slightly sub-optimal) strategy

But whilst you're so confident it was such a stupid idea, you never responded with logic to both Notty's or mine's points besides regurgitating the "you're all stupid, makes no sense rev would do this", despite the many arguments proving that wrong

Now you're using something after all of that, priz's message, to back up your reasoning, without using your actual reasoning before that happened, which makes me think it's because you're struggling to come up with it and so it's just easier to say 'well the host has now shown it was stupid so'
So we got a disagreement over how absolute shit a play is. You even ackowledge it’s not a good play. I was right, and you were wrong. You are now saying “The only way he could have been sure is if he was the actual rev!!!!”.
The reason I am using Prizyms as a backup, is because I agree, it’s what I have been saying the entire fucking game. Go re read the last 50 pages and see how my main argument is that this strategy is utter shit.

I mean if it was some less experienced Mafia player, sure.

Not notty however. Never. If you go over the math, claiming rev doesn’t give you a single fucking advantage. This relies on keeping town in a situation where one bad play by town, or yourself, will throw your own win straight out of the window.

Do you understand that? That’s one dictator that kills someone else than you said.

That’s one single fucking time you are wrong about who is mafia. Unless you got a list of every single players role, or you are god himself, you will fail.

but let’s say you cheated, and read the report with all mafia members listed in it.

You still need to trick town.

You need to have some bold high risk play, where both town and mafia don’t realize what you are doing before it’s too late.

So now tell me again inf, go against every single of my points and prove them wrong, tell me how claiming rev is not the ducking stupidest thing you could ever do.
 

Danni122112

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But whilst you're so confident it was such a stupid idea, you never responded with logic to both Notty's or mine's points besides regurgitating the "you're all stupid, makes no sense rev would do this", despite the many arguments proving that wrong
I did, multiple times, the only point which was proven tried to be proven wrong, was that notty outed ender, and I said notty was smart enough to have done this, exactly to give herself credibility.

You gave notty the benefit of the doubt every single fucking time, while you didn’t give my side it once.

Notty is dead now, I was right and she was proven mafia.

What are you doing? You are defending her flawed plans, and trying to frame me for saving the fucking game.


It’s really tempting, to think that you are mafia, by checking Ltin or god knows how you got the role. I don’t understand how you are still defending notty over this.
My head is screaming that you are mafia, and the only reason I’m not going for it is that I trust listings even less.
 

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So we got a disagreement over how absolute shit a play is. You even ackowledge it’s not a good play. I was right, and you were wrong. You are now saying “The only way he could have been sure is if he was the actual rev!!!!”.

So now tell me again inf, go against every single of my points and prove them wrong, tell me how claiming rev is not the ducking stupidest thing you could ever do.
I acknowledge it's not an optimal play

So we got a disagreement over how absolute shit a play is. You even ackowledge it’s not a good play. I was right, and you were wrong. You are now saying “The only way he could have been sure is if he was the actual rev!!!!”.
The reason I am using Prizyms as a backup, is because I agree, it’s what I have been saying the entire fucking game. Go re read the last 50 pages and see how my main argument is that this strategy is utter shit.
Yes but there are plenty of counter-arguments to the points you raised which you consistently ignored. Spewing out "this is a bad plan!" and then using Priz's agreement to be like "see I was right" doesn't suddenly mean you had proper justification for why it was bad

I mean if it was some less experienced Mafia player, sure.

Not notty however. Never. If you go over the math, claiming rev doesn’t give you a single fucking advantage. This relies on keeping town in a situation where one bad play by town, or yourself, will throw your own win straight out of the window.

Do you understand that? That’s one dictator that kills someone else than you said.

That’s one single fucking time you are wrong about who is mafia. Unless you got a list of every single players role, or you are god himself, you will fail.

but let’s say you cheated, and read the report with all mafia members listed in it.

You still need to trick town.

You need to have some bold high risk play, where both town and mafia don’t realize what you are doing before it’s too late.

So now tell me again inf, go against every single of my points and prove them wrong, tell me how claiming rev is not the ducking stupidest thing you could ever do.
She didn't just claim out of the blue for no reason though, which is why I don't and didn't accept this point. She claimed because the dictator died and she predicted she'd be lynched or targeted by Ender (at the time she thought she could be nightkilled by town I believe). Therefore her reason for claiming was justified. Sure, she could have waited until she had confirmation she was going to die, which is why I'm calling it suboptimal, but it wasn't like she just threw any chance of winning by claiming, if she was rev, for no reason
 
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Danni122112

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Danni122112 who are your suspects and why?
Listings, for obvious reasons.
He doesn’t make sense.

Scrable, he is weird.
I like the Scrable alternative since no one has brought attention to him.

77thshad
I don’t know about him, but definitely up there

The other alternatives are just the standard ones, HK, Fog, etc
The reason why I’m vary of these are because of your, listings, and nottys opinion on them, and I’m ateuggling to entangle them, and the motivations behind them.

Inactive people in general should be more active.
 

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I did, multiple times, the only point which was proven tried to be proven wrong, was that notty outed ender, and I said notty was smart enough to have done this, exactly to give herself credibility.

You gave notty the benefit of the doubt every single fucking time, while you didn’t give my side it once.

Notty is dead now, I was right and she was proven mafia.

What are you doing? You are defending her flawed plans, and trying to frame me for saving the fucking game.


It’s really tempting, to think that you are mafia, by checking Ltin or god knows how you got the role. I don’t understand how you are still defending notty over this.
My head is screaming that you are mafia, and the only reason I’m not going for it is that I trust listings even less.
I mean exactly, why would I be doing this as Mafia, it wouldn't gain me anything

I'm just saying, I think you're the rev
 

Danni122112

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Yes but there are plenty of counter-arguments to the points you raised which you consistently ignored. Spewing out "this is a bad plan!" and then using Priz's agreement to be like "see I was right" doesn't suddenly mean you had proper justification for why it was bad
You literally retyped what I responded to.
 

Danni122112

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She didn't just claim out of the blue for no reason though, which is why I don't and didn't accept this point. She claimed because the dictator died and she predicted she'd be lynched or targeted by Ender (at the time she thought she could be nightkilled by town I believe).
And why on earth would she not wait a bit longer until this was clear?
I do of course acknowledge that she was in the spotlight, because that was her strategy to fuck us over, and then claim rev to create confusion. The plan isn’t directly bad, but that is if you are mafia. It’s a great plan if you are mafia. It’s a shit plan if you are rev.

I would be surprised if notty didn’t bother to read her own role PM properly.
 

Infected_alien8_

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And why on earth would she not wait a bit longer until this was clear?
I do of course acknowledge that she was in the spotlight, because that was her strategy to fuck us over, and then claim rev to create confusion. The plan isn’t directly bad, but that is if you are mafia. It’s a great plan if you are mafia. It’s a shit plan if you are rev.

I would be surprised if notty didn’t bother to read her own role PM properly.
I agree, it would be suboptimal, but not impossible

I never said 'notty is def rev, no way she's mafia', I always acknowledged she could be Mafia

However, weighing up the options and treating both as a possibility, it made more sense to keep her alive JUST IN CASE she was Rev

Read this post

If we lynch Notty, and she's Mafia, that's great

If we lynch Notty and she's not Mafia, we literally cannot win unless a) the poisoner dies within the next 2 nights AND b) we never mislynch even once

Poisoner dies tomorrow

11 town, 7 dissenter
- Night passes, Day ends
9 town, 7 dissenter
8 town, 6 dissenter
7 town, 5 dissenter
6 town, 4 dissenter
5 town, 3 dissenter
4 town, 2 dissenter
3 town, 1 dissenter
2 town, 0 dissenter, town win

Poisoner dies next night

11 town, 7 dissenter
9 town, 7 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter
6 town, 5 dissenter
5 town, 4 dissenter
4 town, 3 dissenter
3 town, 2 dissenter
2 town, 1 dissenter
1 town, 0 dissenter, town win

Poisoner dies next night

11 town, 7 dissenter
9 town, 7 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter
5 town, 5 dissenter
4 town, 4 dissenter, Mafia win

If we mislynch at all even if Poisoner dies tomorrow:

11 town, 7 dissenter
- Night passes, Day ends
9 town, 6 dissenter
7 town, 6 dissenter -- MISLYNCH
6 town, 5 dissenter,
5 town, 4 dissenter
4 town, 3 dissenter
3 town, 2 dissenter
2 town, 1 dissenter
-morning = 1 town, 1 dissenter, day can't end - Mafia Win

If we keep Notty alive, we can still win even if she's Mafia, although this depends on a) when the poisoner dies, b) how accurate our lynching is (but doesn't necessarily need to be flawless, unlike the scenario where we lynch Notty and she's rev) and c) if and when the rev dies (if they do, e.g. granny death, again our chances decrease)

If you're dead set on Notty being Mafia then I can understand why you'd take the risk of killing her since if she's Mafia it's obviously better than keeping her alive, but personally I could easily see her being the rev and I don't think it's a good idea risking the game banking on her innocence

We have better chances of pulling through if we don't lynch Notty from what I can tell

So basically, if we lynch Notty

- if she's Mafia: woo, we're a bit better off than if we'd have kept her alive, could be a lot better off if she's the poisoner
- if she's rev: we can't mislynch or we lose

If we keep Notty alive

- if she's Mafia: damn, we're slightly or hugely (if she's poisoner) worse off, BUT we can still win without needing a flawless lynch, something we can't do if we lynch her and she's not Mafia
- if she's rev: great, our chances of winning are better, albiet relying on several factors (if/when poisoner/rev die, accuracy of lynchings/killings)

tl;dr lynching Notty is only wise in my eyes if she's confirmed Mafia, otherwise it's a gamble not worth taking because what we'd gain doesn't outweigh what we'd lose

It's like, do you take a gamble where if you don't win, you lose £15,000 but if you win you get £3000, or a bonus 1/7 chance (14%) of winning £25,000 (if she's poisoner it would be amazing to kill her off but it's a 1/7 chance). Personally I would not take that gamble because 14% chance of winning anything worth risking losing £15,000 is way too little for me and how am I going to buy Jaffa cakes if I'm in £15,000 debt?

So with that, unless a proven town PR comes forward to say they've been monitored;

Dissolve Council
 

Danni122112

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I mean exactly, why would I be doing this as Mafia, it wouldn't gain me anything

I'm just saying, I think you're the rev
Putting a townie up for an eventual execution, obviously.

Your undying willpower to defend nottys flawed plan, even after her death, makes no sense to me unless you are either trying to frame me for later, or try to whitewash yourself from suspicious (I mean uncced town pr, so not likely)

Question to you: if you were awake, would you have done everything in your power to avoid a notty lynch?
 

Infected_alien8_

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You were willing to risk all of that on the back of your certainty of her not being rev, and although I agree it's suboptimal play for her, as someone who has no idea of her true allignment I lack the certainty you had about making that gigantic risk, so I'm struggling to see where it came from within you, and my answer is that you're the rev
 

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Putting a townie up for an eventual execution, obviously.

Your undying willpower to defend nottys flawed plan, even after her death, makes no sense to me unless you are either trying to frame me for later, or try to whitewash yourself from suspicious (I mean uncced town pr, so not likely)

Question to you: if you were awake, would you have done everything in your power to avoid a notty lynch?
Town don't want you dead right now so no, I'm not trying to get you lynched, but I guess you could argue I'm saving it for later

I'm saying that her plan didn't make it certain she was rev by any means

I would have pointed out the reasons I had for saying it was much safer to keep her alive, yes
 

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I don’t understand what you want me to answer then.
Why you were using priz's agreement with you to defend yourself rather than your original logic, if you believe that original logic was so strong

Of course now you're using your original logic now that I've asked you for it but before you weren't
 
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Danni122112

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I agree, it would be suboptimal, but not impossible

I never said 'notty is def rev, no way she's mafia', I always acknowledged she could be Mafia

However, weighing up the options and treating both as a possibility, it made more sense to keep her alive JUST IN CASE she was Rev

Read this post
I read it, and in my head it was about 80% chance of notty being mafia, 20% that she was the rev.

If it was a 50/50, your post would of course be more correct, though that could depend on if you are a win hard or to home player. I’m not one of those.

I don’t understand why you are saying I haven’t answered this before, I have ._.

In my opinion, keeping notty alive as maf, would have fucked us.

We would have a less likely mafia kill. If we fucked that one up, game over mostly.
Notty would have her way with the village, and set us up for our own destruction.
I honestly think, that nottys continued influence, would have led us to a game over.
 

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We would have a less likely mafia kill. If we fucked that one up, game over mostly.
Notty would have her way with the village, and set us up for our own destruction.
I honestly think, that nottys continued influence, would have led us to a game over.
It wouldn't though, read the spoiler, if Notty was maf and we kept her alive it wouldn't have been game over at all, it would have made things a lot worse for us if she was poisoner though which was a 1/7 (14%) chance even if you assume she was Mafia

Notty didn't have 'influence' over who we lynched
 

Danni122112

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You were willing to risk all of that on the back of your certainty of her not being rev, and although I agree it's suboptimal play for her, as someone who has no idea of her true allignment I lack the certainty you had about making that gigantic risk, so I'm struggling to see where it came from within you, and my answer is that you're the rev

Watch out guys, tomorrow I might be a townie.

Inffys vibes changes every day.
 

Infected_alien8_

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But like I said in that post, if you were dead-set on her being mafia then I can understand why you'd want to kill her, but what I don't fully understand is where your certainty came from, because whilst her plan wasn't optimal, it was still possible
 

Danni122112

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Why you were using priz's agreement with you to defend yourself rather than your original logic, if you believe that original logic was so strong

Of course now you're using your original logic now that I've asked you for it but before you weren't
I already told you my original logic before.
I added new logic to strengthen my argument, and hopefully convince you this time.

It’s not like I ret-conned my old arguments, I just added a new one ._.
 

Danni122112

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It wouldn't though, read the spoiler, if Notty was maf and we kept her alive it wouldn't have been game over at all, it would have made things a lot worse for us if she was poisoner though which was a 1/7 (14%) chance even if you assume she was Mafia

Notty didn't have 'influence' over who we lynched
Considering 1/3 of the people are mafia, and plenty of people believed her claim, she could easily have influence over who was lynched.

I will be honest and say I don’t understand the math completely in them.

In my head it was simply:
We are in a really bad spot
If we don’t kill notty we will be in an even worse spot
I don’t think we can recover from that.


I mean you wanted to ducking lynch me inffy, another mislynch, you should assume in your numbers that town will mislynch more than that.