It wouldn't have one mafia in it though, it'd have 7, because there are 7 mafia. There are 8 anti-town as a whole. So 8/13 chance of a successful lynch.
Republic - Completed
- Thread starter Prizyms
- Start date
... Right.
I'm still dubious on the massclaim idea- there's still quite a few concerns I have about it, in fact- but somehow, I did, in fact, understand Infected_alien8_ 's explanation when he replied to me. I'm still not convinced it's a good idea, but at least I understand where he's getting at.
But uh
The mafia is still able to do stuff after the massclaim, right? They'll be given access to all that info, too, and they can use it to their advantage, since everyone or mostly everyone has massclaimed.
And we don't know what they might claim, right? For all we know, they'll just claim Citizen, which is a bit harder to assess because there's supposed to be five of them.
And won't all of the power roles be revealed if they went along with the massclaim? If they don't but everyone else does the mafia can deduce them from not claiming alone. This includes protection roles, tracking roles, surpresser roles, and our one killing role.
You say that none of the PR are valuable enough in contrast to the benefits that will come under a massclaim. I disagree. There is a lot that can be done in a single night, and even if the mafia- or dissenters, here- are on the verge of being singled out, they can still use the info revealed to damage the conformists' chance of winning. All they need to do is kill the right person.
I'm still dubious on the massclaim idea- there's still quite a few concerns I have about it, in fact- but somehow, I did, in fact, understand Infected_alien8_ 's explanation when he replied to me. I'm still not convinced it's a good idea, but at least I understand where he's getting at.
But uh
I'm going to have to disagree with you on that, I'm afraid.
it's probably my fault since i presented it in possible scenarios like i usually do instead of explaining my exact concerns in a cohesive manner, but the way you addressed it hadn't felt like a valid argument to me and didn't settle my doubts at all.
The mafia is still able to do stuff after the massclaim, right? They'll be given access to all that info, too, and they can use it to their advantage, since everyone or mostly everyone has massclaimed.
And we don't know what they might claim, right? For all we know, they'll just claim Citizen, which is a bit harder to assess because there's supposed to be five of them.
And won't all of the power roles be revealed if they went along with the massclaim? If they don't but everyone else does the mafia can deduce them from not claiming alone. This includes protection roles, tracking roles, surpresser roles, and our one killing role.
You say that none of the PR are valuable enough in contrast to the benefits that will come under a massclaim. I disagree. There is a lot that can be done in a single night, and even if the mafia- or dissenters, here- are on the verge of being singled out, they can still use the info revealed to damage the conformists' chance of winning. All they need to do is kill the right person.
Mass claim, from as far as I can see it, gives us a better chance at winning because it means we're able to much more accurately lynch, and we only have a few days to lynch all the mafia off before we die because mafia have like 2/3 kills in this game, so we need all the chances we can get
If we don't mass claim I highly doubt we'll win
If we don't mass claim I highly doubt we'll win
because it is a massclaim
on day one
im more concerned with mafia screwing us over than with any specific roles
at a later time obviously
but now?
i guess when i think about it maybe but im still very hesitant rn
i would rather go into night one w/o massclaiming and take the potential disadvantage than inadvertently and irreversibly screw ourselves over day 1 because the mafia found some lucky/ingenous way around it
besides, from a setup standpoint, im sure priz wouldn't create this setup without considering the effects of a massclaim
imo it kinda ruins the fun too
Yep, they'll know all our roles, but that shouldn't be much a problem because we don't have hugely important PR roles anyway
That's right, but if they claim citizen, there's still a lot more chance at lynching correctly than if they don't - and we don't - claim anything at all.
Protection roles are useless in this setup because we don't have any special PR to protect, and the Mafia's bus driver can easily switch them into killing themselves with the Granny. We have a watcher but the likelihood they'll catch a mafia is small. Surpresser role could be useful yeah but without a massclaim to focus who the Mafia could be by reducing the pool of suspects down to 7-13, again the likelihood of it doing good is small. Our one killing role will be replaced by our Dictator who is able to kill people for us.
It would be quite a miracle for a watcher/surpressor to consistently catch Mafia (1/26 likelihood of targetting the mafia's kill to block them, 2/26 including their poison) to the extent that we manage to lynch Mafia every day. If we don't lynch Mafia every day, if we mislynch just once, it's highly likely we'll lose without a massclaim (see Notty's post with the numbers).
So essentially it comes down to either a closed game with no mass claim where we rely on our few, limited power roles to get us to somehow lynch correctly all the time, or we massclaim and have a significantly reduced pool of players where the Mafia are hiding (either in the citizens or in PR cc's), lose our PRs and try to lynch as best we can. Bearing this in mind, personally I don't really see how the 1st option could be better at all, but maybe you have something else to say about that that I haven't considered?
The massclaim is by no means an easy win, but it's likely the best shot we have. If you go back and read notty's post where she shows each faction's numbers after each day, assuming the town plays optimally, we can still very easily lose if we mislynch just once. This setup is extremely maf-sided, meaning our decent chance at winning is to massclaim in this scenario. It might seem like a big deal since usually massclaiming immediately could be dangerous in some setups but we have all the roles laid out in front of us, so we're able to see how a massclaim is going to pan out. So far nobody has come up with any big way the Mafia can use it to screw us over. The main issue is the third party, who could screw it up if they manage to kill the Dictator twice (then we'd have to shift to a democracy lynch system which would be inconvenient but still do-able), but it's still a greater chance of success than not going the massclaim from what it seems like, unless I/others are missing something.
Ruining the fun fair enough although personally I'd find the game a lot more boring if we mislynch tomorrow and have to go through the motions for the rest of the game knowing that we've probably lost, but that's just me I guess
Hey, it's fine, it's fine! It's okay. Yes, it feels like you're not addressing all of my concerns but you feel the same way towards us, too, right? It's hard to look past what we consider a good idea at times and see it from the perspective of another, so this kind of situation always has a chance of happening. Don't feel too guilty over it.And I'm sorry Faliara if you're under the impression that I don't consider your points fully, personally I think I do because I spend time reading your posts and considering them, which means either I'm not understanding your points properly (because I don't just ignore them, I do consider them) which is why it might seem like I'm ignoring them in my responses to you, or you're not understanding my points properly, which might be why it seems like I'm ignoring them as well. If you want me to reiterate something or feel as though I've misunderstood you then just let me know, otherwise I'm going to stop pestering you because this is a game and it should be fun and I don't want to crush your motivation for playing
Soz this was kind of a serious post but I'd hate to think I'm making the game unfun for people or I'm making people feel like I'm patronizing them or something so I just wanted to make sure I kind of made myself a bit more clear and maybe I came off as bad in this who knows
still reading but i want to put in my thoughts on this before i forget
mafia is the bigger danger to any serial killer role for the majority of the game. even the revolutionary isn't that much different since they want to target the dictator, who may often be , but isn't necessarily, town. under democracy, they can't target the council, which means the council members are safer than they otherwise would be (excluding lynching), but i believe autocracy is the better option because by electing a dictator, we're focusing a large amount of the hostile roles on one/a few players, some of whom will be mafia. for example, it's moderately likely that both the revolutionary and the doctor will target the dictator, nullifying the rev kill.
also note that the subpoena acts as an extra night protection/block, so theoretically town can have two of each (an argument for democracy is that it gives us an extra investigation too)
another thing i wanted to point out is that notty is hyping up the mafia's kill potential a bit much imo, & ignoring some factors
- mafia losing any member is a pretty huge blow to them
- the bus driver/granny combo relies on neither of them being subpoena'd , the bus driver not being blocked; additionally, if the tracker follows the bus driver they immediately know their role (2 targets)
also if you're vig please be extremely careful because it seems like it's even harder for vig to use their ability in a constructive way in this game, especially early on (if you poison a town member the toxicologist can't save both poisoned players, and killing randomly is often pretty risky)
This is by far the best plan I can see, I think thats a good baseline that we can work off without full mass claiming and leaving that to a later day.
So yesMass - kinda?
and Nay btw
this is fearmongering imo
i would be more inclined to consider a massclaim but i feel like the millers are in the setup specifically to make it a less viable tactic. if we lump the rev, all mafia, and the citizens together, our investigative roles become much much less useful, especially the monitor. also note that the revolutionary and godfather show up as town. see:
the lynch pool ends up being: 5 citizens, 7 mafia, 1 rev
but on reports, these will appear to be: 5 citizens, 8 mafia
there's also the danger of the granny being in that pool, dissuading town PRs from even trying to investigate the lynch pool players. AND the bus driver can mess up investigations/any non-mafia kills in the pool. rev will be completely unpredictable as if they try killing in the lynch pool to hit mafia, they increase their risk of being found out, but just firing randomly is less beneficial.
meanwhile, the mafia can kill off town members in their preferred order, since in order for the massclaim to actually force the antitown into the civ pool, ALL roles have to claim including ones that don't even want to such as doctor
this plan kinda sucks i just realised (although it would be if paranoid was in there)
even taking BP out of the unknown pool of players isn't ideal imo, since they're a detriment to the mafia. Giving mafia an idea of who bp/paranoid are is terrible because then they know who not to target in order to not get fucked over. even putting our "useless" roles out there is a bit dodgy imo, cause now mafia know never to target those people because they're guaranteed to get more value out of targeting literally anyone else.
sorry for these awful fragmented inf posts but that claiming plan^ is completely unnecessary as there are numerous other roles that aren't going to be doing anything useful tonight such as the toxicologist and the vigilante.
Honestly I think this is the best idea. We get a list of potential mafia, while avoiding outing our PRs. The only negative side I can think of is that le Révolutionnaire can kill the dictator, which will put them closer to winning.
I also read Faliarea as scum, so I'm not sure if I believe her entirely. That said, if only 3 people come forward, and no cc's happen, then she obvious isn't scum.
yes good let's narrow down the number of good mafia kill targets from 18 to 8
(i realise i posted my stuff after you posted this but everyone is still saying this is a good idea so i'm quoting it directly)
ok first of all
Nay / Nomass
second of all, good lord. It's almost 5 AM and I just caught up so bear with me
...only if they know who the doctor is. if they don't, and choose randomly, they have a 19/26 of hitting the doc. so. not exactly easy.
wait. bus driver switches targets. that's assuming they know who the doc is targeting, and that they're not targeting the granny already by mistake. so they literally have to choose from a pool of 26 people--or 8-13, in the event that we do massclaim--and hope the doctor's predictable. it's really not easy.
anyway. yeah. prob going to wake up to another dozen pages to get through but here's my two cents O/
Nay / Nomass
second of all, good lord. It's almost 5 AM and I just caught up so bear with me
...this doesn't really change much, from how I'm interpreting it, because we won't know who the useful PRs are, but, uhm... We still know they're important. And now mafia has a nice tidy list to pick off. Because they know who's useful. Also, I can't recall right now if this has already definitely been stated, but how exactly are we to determine who's useless? They all have a use given the right situation.
Can't say what it is, but something threw me when I read this. Something about it just doesn't sit right. Idk, it's late.
we... really don't. Have a 100% chance of lynching right every 2 days, that is. There's always human error, and yeah we don't want to think about mislynching that badly, but there's always a chance that we'll go from (I think these were the right numbers?) 8/13... to 8/12... to 8/11... and... oops, we've lost.
wait. bus driver switches targets. that's assuming they know who the doc is targeting, and that they're not targeting the granny already by mistake. so they literally have to choose from a pool of 26 people--or 8-13, in the event that we do massclaim--and hope the doctor's predictable. it's really not easy.
thank you for putting into words the things that were bugging me that I couldn't quite place.
and this as well, because if the PRs play their cards right, there's a decent chance that they'll majorly throw off these so-called "certain" mafia kills.
anyway. yeah. prob going to wake up to another dozen pages to get through but here's my two cents O/