The Economy of Madness - Game Complete!
- Thread starter Alisha
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Okay so I went back and saw what the panic scale was at at each day/night start and I found out something interesting. I will start by showing what the Panic Scale looks like at the start of each day/night:
Day 0: 12
Night 1: 8
Day 1: 6
Night 2: 5
Day 2: 5
Night 3: 3
Day 3: 3
Night 4: 0
Day 4: 8
What I find interesting is how the panic scale shifts not only during the nights, but also the days. From the start of day 1, it was 5, at the end of it, it was 6. This can be explained in two ways: Either someone has a day action that shifts the panic scale. Or the one that I think is most likely: when a player is killed, the panic scale changes accordingly. If we look at how the panic scale changes based on who was lynched we get this(if we don't take in traits that change the panic-scale upon death):
Day 0 - Town lynch 0 change
Day 1 - Mafia lynch -1 change
Day 2 - SK lynch -2 change
Day 3 - SK lynch -3 change
Now something obvious shows up immediately, each day (or each bankruptcy) changes the panic scale by -1 * what day it is. This would be however, the lazy and not-so-fun explaination. And plus, I don't think it explains the +8 panic scale jump from Night 4 to Day 4. Then I realised it maybe had something to do with who was lynched, and in what order.
My theory is that for each townie that dies the panic scale change based off how many townies has previously died, the same applies for the external threats (SK and mafia). This would mean that: When Notme died day 0, it changed by 0, when Mooglie died the next night, it changed by 1, when Stranger died night 2 it changed by 2, when Notty died night 3, it changed by 3 and finally when both Molten and Poke died night 4 it changed by a total of (4+5=) 9. This explains the sudden jump in the panic scale. This also applies to the SK-team and the Mafia (if we put them together as baddies):
Night 1 - Mulbery killed - 0 change
Day 1 - Unusual bankrupted - -1 change
Day 2 - Dess bankrupted - -2 change
Day 3 - Mario bankrupted - -3 change
This makes very well sense when you think about what the Panic scale shows. When the panic scale is low (when more SK/mafias has been lynched), the economy is composed, however when more and more townies are killed, it goes upwards and it becomes more panicked.
As a final line I think this very well explains Inffy's(comp's) role because if the town does bad then they unlock a new cop.
Day 0: 12
Night 1: 8
Day 1: 6
Night 2: 5
Day 2: 5
Night 3: 3
Day 3: 3
Night 4: 0
Day 4: 8
What I find interesting is how the panic scale shifts not only during the nights, but also the days. From the start of day 1, it was 5, at the end of it, it was 6. This can be explained in two ways: Either someone has a day action that shifts the panic scale. Or the one that I think is most likely: when a player is killed, the panic scale changes accordingly. If we look at how the panic scale changes based on who was lynched we get this(if we don't take in traits that change the panic-scale upon death):
Day 0 - Town lynch 0 change
Day 1 - Mafia lynch -1 change
Day 2 - SK lynch -2 change
Day 3 - SK lynch -3 change
Now something obvious shows up immediately, each day (or each bankruptcy) changes the panic scale by -1 * what day it is. This would be however, the lazy and not-so-fun explaination. And plus, I don't think it explains the +8 panic scale jump from Night 4 to Day 4. Then I realised it maybe had something to do with who was lynched, and in what order.
My theory is that for each townie that dies the panic scale change based off how many townies has previously died, the same applies for the external threats (SK and mafia). This would mean that: When Notme died day 0, it changed by 0, when Mooglie died the next night, it changed by 1, when Stranger died night 2 it changed by 2, when Notty died night 3, it changed by 3 and finally when both Molten and Poke died night 4 it changed by a total of (4+5=) 9. This explains the sudden jump in the panic scale. This also applies to the SK-team and the Mafia (if we put them together as baddies):
Night 1 - Mulbery killed - 0 change
Day 1 - Unusual bankrupted - -1 change
Day 2 - Dess bankrupted - -2 change
Day 3 - Mario bankrupted - -3 change
This makes very well sense when you think about what the Panic scale shows. When the panic scale is low (when more SK/mafias has been lynched), the economy is composed, however when more and more townies are killed, it goes upwards and it becomes more panicked.
As a final line I think this very well explains Inffy's(comp's) role because if the town does bad then they unlock a new cop.
If this is correct then the panic scale would change based off Aqua's alignment today. If he is the SK, then the panic scale would be 4 at the end of the day, if he is a townie, then it would be 14(alternatively 13) at the end of the day.
So uhhh any of you lovely townies want to explain the second night kill tonight considering it wasn't done by ender before rushing in to lynch me?
I'm glad the actual townies aren't just seeing a bandwagon and joining it I do appreciate it and if y'all can hold out til tonight when I get back so I can properly defend myself (because, really there is no reason not to) I'd appreciate it.
So considering it was I who did the quick maths at a time where mario's role was quite contested (I'll admit before doing so his claim made sense to me)
which 100% proved without a shred of doubt he was lying how the heck you got me defending mario VeRy HeAvIlY is insane, either you are scum trying to scrape together as many reasons to lynch me as possible before I can defend myself and ur shaky plans fall thru or you're just tunnel visioning me too hard, which in this scenario makes you a terrible mafia player but hey I'm confident it's the former so dw.
If you had put me down as mafia I could possibly see it as I was asleep when town bandwagoned unu but considering the two confirmed SK's:
Dess & Mario
Two people I was heavily involved with the lynch process of
kinda shows how little thought you put into this hastily prepared bandwagon...
...and it is a bandwagon
Look how quick they all were to vote for me before I had even seen the thread posting dumb shit like "100% Sk" as if they had any real evidence before MuH vIbEs to vote for me, trying to get me lynched before town had a chance to respond.
Finally I'd like to ask the worst mafia player in the room, Omni , why, despite him being 100% confident I was SK, who have been proven by his reports and their deaths to have no night action, didn't use it on me?
You could have had hard evidence that I didn't have a night action but you didn't use it.
Why?
oh yeah 1 last thing:
In a game with 2 other protect roles, Michief being able to protect herself, something most NORMAL doctor roles can't do just seems way too broken and seems like just an excuse to not be targeted last night.
I don't believe her claim fo rthe same reason she used against inf/mario. two cops would be broken, three town protection roles is insane.
bad claim from a bad player x
In a game with 2 other protect roles, Michief being able to protect herself, something most NORMAL doctor roles can't do just seems way too broken and seems like just an excuse to not be targeted last night.
I don't believe her claim fo rthe same reason she used against inf/mario. two cops would be broken, three town protection roles is insane.
bad claim from a bad player x
—— Reverse Economic Update ——
Deadline: 3 May 2019 UTC 22:00.
Deadline: 3 May 2019 UTC 22:00.
Aqua - 5 (Mischief, Omni, Enderfive, fantome, Arch the bird collector) [B-1]
Enderfive - 1 (Aqua) [B-5]
With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to bankrupt or no-bankrupt.
If no option reaches the required number of votes when a deadline hits, the day will end as a no-bankruptcy.
Got some quotes here for us to read and consider.
If anyone is willing to investigate the option aqua is town and is being BW, perhaps we should remove some votes (since he is still at a hammer) and take some time to look into it. Considering the three mentioned above started the lynch train and was then joined by fantome (semi-smack talk cus its fantome and im not convinced he looked into it all that well) and a 3p claim, something doesnt feel right.
If in the end we still are set on lynching aqua ill join the vote, since as i said im not sure about him either and lynching him would def give a lot of reads on the remaining players. Ill place my vote on aqua (if we havent changed our mind) somewhere tomorow looking at the deadline.
I don't like the way he mentions ender here, i feel like hes talking about a teammate. And then the vote on aqua seems to me like an attempt at BW. I am not sure about aqua either, but the way he gained votes so fast worries me actually.
This posts by omni has a weird feel about it. First he says he thinks aqua is the SK, okay fair, but then he says he thinks inffy/comp is the remaining sk member. he only talks about the sk, without any mention of the mafia. could be a tell omni is maf.
going forward on that i felt mischief and ender might be a team, the last line feels like ender distancing himself from mischief.
If anyone is willing to investigate the option aqua is town and is being BW, perhaps we should remove some votes (since he is still at a hammer) and take some time to look into it. Considering the three mentioned above started the lynch train and was then joined by fantome (semi-smack talk cus its fantome and im not convinced he looked into it all that well) and a 3p claim, something doesnt feel right.
If in the end we still are set on lynching aqua ill join the vote, since as i said im not sure about him either and lynching him would def give a lot of reads on the remaining players. Ill place my vote on aqua (if we havent changed our mind) somewhere tomorow looking at the deadline.
I will let you take the interactions as it is but I only believe ender is true vig
You haven't be participating in basically any Lynch so far with no input of a different target. If you don't have enough confidence to pick a person yourself and just nitpick what's already there, your not being helpful to town at all.
Tbh it sounds to me you are prepping people for a Lynch after town gets rid of sk, you do have been very low-key which fits my idea of how mafia would try not to draw attention to themselves.
Second if you are accusing ender of being mafia who killed mafia night one? If you are accusing him of being SK, why was Mario dropped in favour of him?
You haven't be participating in basically any Lynch so far with no input of a different target. If you don't have enough confidence to pick a person yourself and just nitpick what's already there, your not being helpful to town at all.
Tbh it sounds to me you are prepping people for a Lynch after town gets rid of sk, you do have been very low-key which fits my idea of how mafia would try not to draw attention to themselves.
Second if you are accusing ender of being mafia who killed mafia night one? If you are accusing him of being SK, why was Mario dropped in favour of him?
yeah i think mischief is just cozying up to me so that i'm less inclined to lynch him/kill him
i have 2 coins left btw so i'm basically a vanilla townie now
i have 2 coins left btw so i'm basically a vanilla townie now
though i still haven't shaken my doubts about hk so maybe mischief really is town and i'm just looking at this the wrong way
honestly the fact that there are two scum teams makes it impossible to get a good scumread on anyone
honestly the fact that there are two scum teams makes it impossible to get a good scumread on anyone
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