Here's what I think.
It makes sense to Lynch for two reasons.
1. To Lynch. If this happens, there is a better chance of getting a mafia next day. Say 5 people are mafia and 5 people are villagers. 5:5 chance on getting either a villager or a mafia. If you get a mafia, good job. If you get a villager, then there is a 5:4 chance you'll get mafia the next day, which is a higher chance of getting a mafia. HOWEVER, if you actually think about it, this literally makes no sense since you're still losing a valuable villager. You're doing the mafia's work for them, and then they can get ANOTHER kill that same night. HOWEVER, there's also the upside of knowing who the villager was, which can give you a bit of insight. If they were militia, then some people who voted FOR them getting lynched are either lying or villagers. The opposite still holds true.
2. Not to Lynch. If this happens, you have no chance of getting a villager OR a militia. HOWEVER, this means the militia will very probably kill someone that night. If they do, it accomplishes the same thing ANYWAY, with a 5:4 chance you'll get mafia the next day, but again you're still losing a villager.
This means that if you Lynch randomly, you have a chance of killing a militia AND killing a villager, as the militia would kill it. However, you also have the chance to kill TWO villagers.
Really it's about loss prevention. Let's look at all the possibilities.
1: Lynch
Militia do NOT kill. We kill militia. - 5 Villagers : 3 Militia
Militia do NOT kill. We kill villager. - 4 Villagers : 5 Militia
Militia DO kill. We kill militia. - 4 Villagers : 4 Militia
Militia DO kill. We kill villager. - 3 Villagers : 5 Militia
2: Do not Lynch
Militia DO kill. - 4 Villagers : 5 Militia
Militia do NOT kill. - 5 Villagers : 5 Militia.
I'd say it's more likely militia do kill. As you can see, if we do not Lynch, we're losing a villager anyway. If we do Lynch, we have the chance of killing twice as many villagers as we would've before, or we have the chance of evening out the playing field by each losing one on their team.
However! We've been using 5 on each team, and this is wildly wrong. There's more Villagers than Militia. That means by not lynching, we lose one on our team. But BY lynching, we'll MOST LIKELY lose DOUBLE but we'll get insight onto why people voted and if they're bad/good/lying/idiots.
All in all I'd say it's super complicated and I'm not sure whether we should Lynch or not. I'm currently more moving with lynching the most suspicious since we're going to lose people anyway. But.. then again.. we'd most likely statistically kill two villagers instead of one if we Lynch.
It makes sense to Lynch for two reasons.
1. To Lynch. If this happens, there is a better chance of getting a mafia next day. Say 5 people are mafia and 5 people are villagers. 5:5 chance on getting either a villager or a mafia. If you get a mafia, good job. If you get a villager, then there is a 5:4 chance you'll get mafia the next day, which is a higher chance of getting a mafia. HOWEVER, if you actually think about it, this literally makes no sense since you're still losing a valuable villager. You're doing the mafia's work for them, and then they can get ANOTHER kill that same night. HOWEVER, there's also the upside of knowing who the villager was, which can give you a bit of insight. If they were militia, then some people who voted FOR them getting lynched are either lying or villagers. The opposite still holds true.
2. Not to Lynch. If this happens, you have no chance of getting a villager OR a militia. HOWEVER, this means the militia will very probably kill someone that night. If they do, it accomplishes the same thing ANYWAY, with a 5:4 chance you'll get mafia the next day, but again you're still losing a villager.
This means that if you Lynch randomly, you have a chance of killing a militia AND killing a villager, as the militia would kill it. However, you also have the chance to kill TWO villagers.
Really it's about loss prevention. Let's look at all the possibilities.
1: Lynch
Militia do NOT kill. We kill militia. - 5 Villagers : 3 Militia
Militia do NOT kill. We kill villager. - 4 Villagers : 5 Militia
Militia DO kill. We kill militia. - 4 Villagers : 4 Militia
Militia DO kill. We kill villager. - 3 Villagers : 5 Militia
2: Do not Lynch
Militia DO kill. - 4 Villagers : 5 Militia
Militia do NOT kill. - 5 Villagers : 5 Militia.
I'd say it's more likely militia do kill. As you can see, if we do not Lynch, we're losing a villager anyway. If we do Lynch, we have the chance of killing twice as many villagers as we would've before, or we have the chance of evening out the playing field by each losing one on their team.
However! We've been using 5 on each team, and this is wildly wrong. There's more Villagers than Militia. That means by not lynching, we lose one on our team. But BY lynching, we'll MOST LIKELY lose DOUBLE but we'll get insight onto why people voted and if they're bad/good/lying/idiots.
All in all I'd say it's super complicated and I'm not sure whether we should Lynch or not. I'm currently more moving with lynching the most suspicious since we're going to lose people anyway. But.. then again.. we'd most likely statistically kill two villagers instead of one if we Lynch.
