Republic - Completed

[Nottykitten]

this won't happen

Are you suggesting that CCing someone is a good strategy for the Mafia? If theres one CC we'll still have 12 proven PR's and if 4 do it well still have 8 proven PR's. It will only make killing them easier for us so I doubt any would do it but if they do then fine by me.

this is very much dependent on what the maf will prioritise and unless you're maf, there is no way you can guarantee it

Except I can because if the Maf prioritizes killing the doctor then our assassin lives to murder another day, which is far more valuable.

i think it's relatively likely that you're maf again and simply knew you couldn't suggest the same strat again as you did the last time

Same, except I'm not suggesting the same strat since it's flawed and gives Mafia an edge.

Nottykitten your plan is purely based on luck in basically every step and is in no way a smart play

Yeah its completely luck but that doesn't mean its not a decent play. I can see it working out in the towns favour most of the time.

this makes every single one of the town pr's an instant maf target

We could also instead mass-claim PR or non-PR. This way the Maf don't know which specific role to target.

 

[Ltin]

We could also instead mass-claim PR or non-PR. This way the Maf don't know which specific role to target.

But then CCing becomes so incredibly easy that we have to start forcing people to claim anyway.

 

[myusername22]

I still think voting in randoms is the way to go. I will think electing three confirmed innos to the council is a valid play, but I think it's too easily influenced to contain no mafia whereas the mafia have incentive to put one or two members on the council but not completely takeover. Obviously if we end up with an autocrat people will be asking questions/ and/or lynching and the mafia aren't going to throw away a member just for that.

As far as the mass claim suggestion I don't know if it benefits either team more, but I think the outcomes it creates cause the game to be more luck based than skill, so I'm strongly against the idea.

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[Infected_alien8_]

this won't happen

If it doesn't then that's better anyway since for every CC we have a guarantee Mafia lynch for every mislynch we make, instead of having the option of mislynching 5 times in a row

Statistically it's ever so slightly better for us if they don't CC since then we have a 7/13 (54%) chance of lynching Mafia instead of a 50% chance, but for every mislynch we have, we garuntee a Mafia lynch the next day, so worst case scenario, over 5 days we mislynch 3 and lynch 2, whereas if they don't CC, worst case scenario we mislynch 5 and lynch 0 and by then it's probably too late

this makes every single one of the town pr's an instant maf target

It's not like any single one of our PR are even that useful. I think it's worth having PR as targets for this plan

this is very much dependent on what the maf will prioritise and unless you're maf, there is no way you can guarantee it

not to mention that in order to avoid having their kill blocked by the doc, they probably won't go for the obvious targets

It doesn't even matter which PR the Mafia kill, they're basically all useless except if the doctor is randomly somehow lucky which is like a 2/(however many people we have alive) chance of saving a townie each night. Some of them are slightly useful but I can't see a role whose benefits of being alive outweigh the benefits of ensuring we have an above 50% chance of lynching a Mafia member literally every time we lynch.

But again my brain is literally dead right now so I might be missing something but from what I can tell so far, Notty's plan is fine

 

[Hunter]

I'd say have three of the four roles speak up, vote in whoever three speak first, then if one of the members dies, have the fourth speak up to replace them without any of the roles being revealed

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I still think voting in randoms is the way to go. I will think electing three confirmed innos to the council is a valid play, but I think it's too easily influenced to contain no mafia whereas the mafia have incentive to put one or two members on the council but not completely takeover. Obviously if we end up with an autocrat people will be asking questions/ and/or lynching and the mafia aren't going to throw away a member just for that.

As far as the mass claim suggestion I don't know if it benefits either team more, but I think the outcomes it creates cause the game to be more luck based than skill, so I'm strongly against the idea.

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If we accidentally have a Mafia majority twice (for the first time we need 3 mafia in there, for the second time we need 2), we lose unless the Rev dies. It's not hugely likely but it's a risk only worth taking if there are bigger risks with the alternative.

There are only 7 Mafia, I don't really see what you mean by it being too easily influenced

 

[Infected_alien8_]

What's your opinion on Notty's idea Hunter

 

[Scrable]

I love drama

 

[Infected_alien8_]

How can we assume any of this?

Even if you are right and we do kill 2-3 mafia (which is unlikely as out of the 3 citizen pool night kills night 1 and 2 and the following day lynch the percentage of hitting mafia isn't that high as the ratio is 5:7)

how in anyway can you assume "atleast one of their strong PR's" is dead??

if 3 mafia are dead that's still 3:7 so even after all 4 night kills and if your assumption is correct and we kill 3 mafia, it's still more likely niether of the two suggested pr's are dead (with it being a 28% chance n1 and a 40% chance n2).

This strategy is never in our favour

The plan doesn't need those PRs specifically to be dead in order for us to stand a chance at winning though, it's just a bonus if they are

 

[Hunter]

What's your opinion on Notty's idea Hunter

I don't like massclaiming d0 and relying on chance

 

[Hunter]

Infected_alien8_ opinions on this?
Have three of the four roles (whistleblower, reticent, vengeful, bulletproof) speak up, vote in whoever three speak first, then if one of the members dies, have the fourth speak up to replace them without any of the roles being revealed
that way we have town majority for at least two days

 

[Enderfive]

Are you suggesting that CCing someone is a good strategy for the Mafia?

given the number of roles that maf has that are straight up counterparts of town roles, yes, because it gives a 50/50 chance of a mislynch for all CC'd options and a lower chance of lynching maf among the civ claims, which is probably what all the scum roles that don't have a town counterpart are going to claim

Except I can because if the Maf prioritizes killing the doctor then our assassin lives to murder another day, which is far more valuable.

as soon as we try to lock down who we think is going to be killed, we make the maf switch targets because of the very real possibility that the doc is on that most likely target

Same, except I'm not suggesting the same strat since it's flawed and gives Mafia an edge.

every strat i can think of is flawed, in that regard priz has done a great job

that is also why i think we shouldn't try to lock into any certain strategy and should instead attempt to rely on intuition and the reads we have on players

Yeah its completely luck but that doesn't mean its not a decent play. I can see it working o

fair enough

We could also instead mass-claim PR or non-PR. This way the Maf don't know which specific role to target.

maybe, i don't know


for the record, i think that massclaiming is generally a good idea, i'm not sure if we should claim specific roles now or later, and the only reason i'm actively arguing against notty right now is because
a) i think that's the best way to discover any glaring flaws in the plan and patch them up and
b) i fear that if we go along with it without anyone really questioning it, people will be less likely to switch tracks in case it becomes clear that it's not a good plan

 

[myusername22]

If we accidentally have a Mafia majority twice (for the first time we need 3 mafia in there, for the second time we need 2), we lose unless the Rev dies. It's not hugely likely but it's a risk only worth taking if there are bigger risks with the alternative.

There are only 7 Mafia, I don't really see what you mean by it being too easily influenced

But if we accidently have a mafia majority at least once and they install their own dictator we have a pretty good idea of who at least 3 of the mafia are.

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[Infected_alien8_]

I don't like massclaiming d0 and relying on chance

It's not relying on chance any more than your plan is

Your plan relies on chance that we choose 2 Mafia to be in the democracy, otherwise we don't get to lynch while the Mafia gets 3, possibly more kills using their poisoner + granny + faction kill + revolutionary. Its success hinges on our ability to select Mafia correctly from a pool of 26 players.

Notty's plan's success hinges on our ability to select Mafia correctly from a pool of 13 players.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

Infected_alien8_ opinions on this?
Have three of the four roles (whistleblower, reticent, vengeful, bulletproof) speak up, vote in whoever three speak first, then if one of the members dies, have the fourth speak up to replace them without any of the roles being revealed
that way we have town majority for at least two days

That plan is kind of what we did last time except we planned specifically for the reticent, vengeful and bulletproof to speak up first, then the whistleblower or the one that I was which I forgot's name

I think it could work but I think Notty's plan gives us better chances since we have a narrowed-down pool and don't have to lynch from 2 people who may both be town PR each day.

 

[Ltin]

Hunters plan also allows mafia to CC and get their way in, with more than one town thinking they are the 4th role

 

[Hunter]

I was thinking more along the lines of using the council as an investigatory tool for a day or two before going dictatorship

Reading over Notty's plan, it could work, but it relies on the antitown not immediately going after the doc/toxicologist, which seems very unlikely.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

But if we accidently have a mafia majority at least once and they install their own dictator we have a pretty good idea of who at least 3 of the mafia are.

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That's true but when we lynch one we have to elect someone else and eventually there's a chance of there being another Mafia majority again, in which case we lose

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I was thinking more along the lines of using the council as an investigatory tool for a day or two before going dictatorship

Reading over Notty's plan, it could work, but it relies on the antitown not immediately going after the doc/toxicologist, which seems very unlikely.

I don't think we even need the doc/toxicologist alive for that plan to work, but I might be wrong on that since I just kind of roughly panned it out in my head and I'm too tired to do it in detail

 

[Hunter]

Hunters plan also allows mafia to CC and get their way in, with more than one town thinking they are the 4th role

Fair, I suppose, but it's likely we'll still have town majority + if that's the case, when one of the three dies, a maf will be revealed and the relevant players can just claim. As the cc would be in council, easy lynch

 

[Hunter]

We can do the massclaim thing a few days in, sure, but I really don't think it'd be good to do d1.

Either way, I'm one of the three roles relevant to last game's plan, so that's why I wanted to be in the council. Plus having something to do in the night is exciting.

 

[Infected_alien8_]

We can do the massclaim thing a few days in, sure, but I really don't think it'd be good to do d1.

Why not?

If we're going to do it, wasting a few days not having a clear direction means the plan likely is going to work so then there'd be no point anyway

 

[Sploorky]

I've been running a fever for the past few days so pardon me if I missed something, but what's the contingency plan towards the mafia just killing the dictator immediately? They have a very easy way of doing so with the busdriver

 

[Sploorky]

I've been running a fever for the past few days so pardon me if I missed something, but what's the contingency plan towards the mafia just killing the dictator immediately? They have a very easy way of doing so with the busdriver

Nevermind it was in Notty's post. I'm not sure how much I subscribe to that plan, seems too luck reliant. I'll need to think about it more though

 

[Infected_alien8_]

I've been running a fever for the past few days so pardon me if I missed something, but what's the contingency plan towards the mafia just killing the dictator immediately? They have a very easy way of doing so with the busdriver

They can do that but it will take 2 nights for it to happen since they won't know who the Dictator is until tomorrow and then can't kill them until the following night

Tbh I didn't consider this happening but if they do that and make us waste a day of electing a new democracy then that makes it a lot less likely we'll win if we do this plan