Sparkly: nill
Sparkly: are you good at math and percentages and all that crap
nillbugwtw: I'd like to think I'm not too bad
nillbugwtw: what's up?
Sparkly: OK
Sparkly: I have a problem.
nillbugwtw: ok
nillbugwtw: I have 99
nillbugwtw: But
nillbugwtw: 0% of them are bitches
Sparkly: I need to pick between these two chests. Now 1 chest has 4 sets + 2 rare drops. 2 out of the 4 chests contain sets that have over $20.00 in value. The other 2 are $7.00 and $5.00. Crap right? And IF I'm even lucky enough to get 1 rare drop (since it's a rare chance of both of them dropping when you open it), each has like $1.00 value. OK now the 2nd chest has 5 sets + 2 rare drops. 4/5 sets have a $10 - 11 value, the other one has $8.00. However, the first random drop is worth $1.00 and the second random chance is worth $8.80...
Sparkly: my question is, do I get gready
Sparkly: with only 50%
Sparkly: and shoot for the $20.00
Sparkly: but what if I miss?
Sparkly: or do I stick with I know I have 4/5 chance of getting a deal
Sparkly: + maybe more if I get the random drop (which probs wont happen though).
Sparkly: greedy *
nillbugwtw: oh this isn't like
nillbugwtw: a math class problem
Sparkly: no
Sparkly: lol
nillbugwtw: shit you're using percentages irl
Sparkly: this is a steam market problem
nillbugwtw: so let's see
Sparkly: which would you pick
nillbugwtw: well first of all
nillbugwtw: I don't understand dota
nillbugwtw: or steam market betting
nillbugwtw: so let me decipher this
nillbugwtw: Chest1 has 6 options, 2 rare 4 common
nillbugwtw: Chest2 has 7 options
nillbugwtw: and uh
nillbugwtw: 4-5 "uncommon", for the sake of making a $10 middle tier
nillbugwtw: I'm not sure what the $1 and $8.80 business is
Sparkly: OK each chest has sets and then they always through in "BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!" factor. So they'll usually say, if you're lucky, you'll get a rare chance at receiving this rare item. But then they'll also say, "If you're EVEN luckier than lucky, you will get the EXTREMELY rare drop too." so no matter what, when you open the chest you'll get 1 of the sets but you have a rare chance of getting something extra and even rarer chance of getting something really awesome.
Sparkly: so first chest has 4 sets and 2 rare/even rarer drops
Sparkly: however, the two rare/even rarer drops are only worth $1.00
Sparkly: shouldn't even have mentioned it tbh since I rarely get them
Sparkly: they're not easy to get
Sparkly: takes a lot of opening
nillbugwtw: so
nillbugwtw: so we're ignoring the rare drops
Sparkly: sure
Sparkly: yes
Sparkly: lets ignore
nillbugwtw: those are outlying chances anyway
Sparkly: yes
nillbugwtw: and shouldn't factor in to your probabilities
nillbugwtw: ok
nillbugwtw: so then
nillbugwtw: Chest1, 2/4 are greater than 20, 2/4 are ~6
nillbugwtw: Chest2, 4/5 are 10, 1/5 is 8
Sparkly: yes
nillbugwtw: hmm
Sparkly: hard right?
nillbugwtw: Well
Sparkly: if I get greedy, I could benefit a lot or worse
nillbugwtw: lets say you did 10 trials of each chest
nillbugwtw: now, granted
nillbugwtw: probability over a number of samples =/= a single sample
nillbugwtw: but testing value over time is probably the best option in this scenario
nillbugwtw: SO, 10 trials for Chest1
nillbugwtw: you would expect 5 of them to have a $20 value, and 5 to have a $6 value
nillbugwtw: for a total value after 10 trials of $130
nillbugwtw: Chest2
nillbugwtw: 8 of them would be $10, 2 would be $8
nillbugwtw: for a total expected value of $96
nillbugwtw: that doesn't factor in the cost of keys, which is I assume how you're opening the chests
nillbugwtw: but, over a large number of trials, you could expect to make more overall from Chest1
nillbugwtw: really, if you're just opening a single chest
nillbugwtw: it has more to do with your desire to take risks
nillbugwtw: and less with the probability
nillbugwtw: I would look at it this way though
nillbugwtw: Worst case scenario for Chest1 is $6, best case for Chest2 is $10
nillbugwtw: in the absolute worst case scenario, the most you've lost is $4
nillbugwtw: whereas, best case for Chest1 is ~20, best case for Chest2 is $11
nillbugwtw: If you took the gamble and were successful, you would stand to have $9+ more than from Chest2
nillbugwtw: Because the best case scenario for the gamble is more than twice that of the worst case
nillbugwtw: and because 50/50 odds are the best odds you can reasonably ask for
nillbugwtw: personally, I would take it
Sparkly: Chest 1 you mean
nillbugwtw: I would take the risk with Chest1
nillbugwtw: yes
Sparkly: Alright
Sparkly: done
Sparkly: that is it
ES is labelled as a carry/nuker but I have seen him played as a support... not often but that doesn't mean you can start a new meta! And I noticed nowadays people prefer Lina and VS as a Semi-Carry because their auras are the bees knees and they can dish the heat. The most basic support of all supports for me would be 