both twg and molten seem a bit scummy, but we dont have a lot of room to afford a mislynch, so just being cautious(idk if its the right word)
Your statement would be true if people claimed/died in the same order as the letters that got rolled, however they're not.
You are claiming I'm using faulty statistics to show how the estimated probability isn't accurate, yet fail to even challenge my two other points.
That the chance of Weak being role blocker has a 50 times bigger higher chance than 'Weak as town role blocker blocking mafia role blocker, who was blocking a PR doing an action with impact on the game' happening.
Oh my god, ok, wow. What the heck happened. I was waiting for Molten to respond and then this got going and life hit me and oh jeez.
Ok, first off, full disclaimer: I suck at statistics and I've just spent the better part of an hour trying to refresh myself on this stuff because something is irking me about how we're going about this.
Each roll of the 7 is independent, correct? The probability of one roll does not affect the others. One result does not mean the rest of the rolls are suddenly weighed.
So the thing that bugs me is I'm not sure we can calculate the probability of a B given everything we know, because the events are independent. What we CAN say is that yes, given what we know, the probability that there is a mafia roleblocker is intuitively 100%. Given the 7 rolls, the probability of a single B is 1 - (1 - 0.05) ^ 7 = 30%. But that goes for literally any of the PRs letters.
Of course, I might still be incredibly unbelievably wrong. I don't trust myself with statistics, and I just took an hour trying to work out why my numbers weren't lining up and trying to figure out if there was a reason everyone's calculations were done using conditional probability.
In this case, there are no conditions. None of the rolls inherently affect the others.
I suppose, what we can say is, knowing that 3 of the rolls were not Bs, for the remaining 4 rolls... the chance of rolling one B out of 4 is 1 - (1 - 0.05) ^ 4 = 18.5%.
I don't really know what else to say. At the least, I have reasonable suspicion not based on statistics on TWG this time, just because this all seems strange. If nobody else has anything to add or wants to dispute my math, I'll hammer it.
Ok, first off, full disclaimer: I suck at statistics and I've just spent the better part of an hour trying to refresh myself on this stuff because something is irking me about how we're going about this.
Each roll of the 7 is independent, correct? The probability of one roll does not affect the others. One result does not mean the rest of the rolls are suddenly weighed.
Incorrect. 5% chance over 20 tries would be calculated using the formula 1 - (1 - 0.05) ^ 20. In which case, the chance of one single B in all those rolls becomes 64%.
So the thing that bugs me is I'm not sure we can calculate the probability of a B given everything we know, because the events are independent. What we CAN say is that yes, given what we know, the probability that there is a mafia roleblocker is intuitively 100%. Given the 7 rolls, the probability of a single B is 1 - (1 - 0.05) ^ 7 = 30%. But that goes for literally any of the PRs letters.
Of course, I might still be incredibly unbelievably wrong. I don't trust myself with statistics, and I just took an hour trying to work out why my numbers weren't lining up and trying to figure out if there was a reason everyone's calculations were done using conditional probability.
In this case, there are no conditions. None of the rolls inherently affect the others.
I suppose, what we can say is, knowing that 3 of the rolls were not Bs, for the remaining 4 rolls... the chance of rolling one B out of 4 is 1 - (1 - 0.05) ^ 4 = 18.5%.
I don't really know what else to say. At the least, I have reasonable suspicion not based on statistics on TWG this time, just because this all seems strange. If nobody else has anything to add or wants to dispute my math, I'll hammer it.
The order roles are rolled in is completely and utterly irrelevant.
And you're not disputing that claim.
I've addressed both of those "points."
The first here: (quote broke)
And the second in the same post you just quoted yourself....
Incorrect, blockers have a 5% chance to get rolled, every other PR is 15%.
I've got nothing to dispute, math reasonably checks out at a glance (Is off with roleblocker but seems accurate-ish) and isn't misleading to manipulate anyone like what UNU is doing with his multiplication nonsense
Catgirl I wish you posted more because you're a ray of sanity
Catgirl I wish you posted more because you're a ray of sanity
They are, but the order people claim in and die isn't.
And your "point" is that I'm using faulty statistics since the estimated probability is only "approximately" when I point at scenarios showing that these calculations don't work?
The group decides TheWeakGuy48_ is next to go. In no time the goat dashes into the room and rams into TheWeakGuy48_, which sends him flying out of sight. The goat calmy leaves the room. The goat appears to be laughing softly.
Possibly crying...
or both.
TheWeakGuy48_ was: Town Roleblocker
Possibly crying...
or both.
TheWeakGuy48_ was: Town Roleblocker
Night 2 start:
- Night ends on Saturday Jan. 26, at 3 PM GMT. (I wanted to start the night before I go to sleep, but I don't want to end it at this time in 24 hours from now).
- Send in your night action (if you have any) via your forum pm.
- If you haven't send in an action before the deadline, that's too bad. (of course if you know in advance you arent going to make a night deadline msg me)
- Night ends on Saturday Jan. 26, at 3 PM GMT. (I wanted to start the night before I go to sleep, but I don't want to end it at this time in 24 hours from now).
- Send in your night action (if you have any) via your forum pm.
- If you haven't send in an action before the deadline, that's too bad. (of course if you know in advance you arent going to make a night deadline msg me)
The light that I never turned of turns on once again. One player appear to be missing. With MORE blood ALL OVER,
a few HUNDRED hoof prints leading to and from the room, and an AWFUL stench of goat, a new day begins.
Catgirl12466 was: Vaniller Townie
a few HUNDRED hoof prints leading to and from the room, and an AWFUL stench of goat, a new day begins.
Catgirl12466 was: Vaniller Townie
Day 2 start:
- Deadline is hereby set as Wednesday Jan. 30, at 10 PM GMT. (early night end wtf that's kinda neat i guess)
- With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch and 4 votes to no lynch.
- If a majority hasn't been reached by the time the deadline hits it will default to a no lynch.
- Deadline is hereby set as Wednesday Jan. 30, at 10 PM GMT. (early night end wtf that's kinda neat i guess)
- With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch and 4 votes to no lynch.
- If a majority hasn't been reached by the time the deadline hits it will default to a no lynch.
TheWeakGuy48_ I'm sorry 
I'm really sorry about pushing everyone to mislynch basically, my reads are obviously terrible this game and to be honest I have no idea what to think anymore
also rip catgirl, you will be missed
I'm really sorry about pushing everyone to mislynch basically, my reads are obviously terrible this game and to be honest I have no idea what to think anymore
also rip catgirl, you will be missed