It's not worthless because I could be a mafia roleblocker from your point of view
So in other words it is not entirely worthless since you could be role blocker who might be blocking a PR who might just have made an important decision that makes an impact in the game. Only if all the bolded parts happens blocking you won't be worthless.
So in other words it is not entirely worthless since you could be role blocker who might be blocking a PR who might just have made an important decision that makes an impact in the game. Only if all the bolded parts happens blocking you won't be worthless.
The probability of just one of them happening is very low, and then you can imagine them happening all togather being extremly small. I think it's unreasonable to blame him for not considering that when it is like he is stating, doubtful it will make an impact.
TWG was assuming that as a town roleblocker he would be useless, but if we assume he's telling the truth about his claim, he's actually wrong. Town roleblocker can block a mafia roleblocker if it exists and that would be useful.
(Yes I know the probability of that scenario is very low, but then again TWG's chances of telling the truth are low anyway so it feels weird for you to point that out and simultaneously defend TWG's chances)
I thought he was softclaiming Doc when he said he visited me last night, and I didn't wanna lynch the doctor. But in light of his claim, and the maths that I don't really understand the chance of him being legit is very small...
Unvote
Vote TWG
The probability is low, yes, but the probability estimated right now isn't exactly accurate, since the roles in the game is chosen in a more complex way. For instance we haven't in Choco's calculation considered the cannot be only one more V or M (since we don't have an innocent child and can't have two 1-shot vigs).
Another point considering is that from all the PRs claiming later we will only have a few letters left to choose from. It is natural that we learn some letters early due to claims and deaths, and the 'probability' will then always seem lower since it seems like the letters left only has to be chosen in let's say 2 rolls, when it in reality was chosen in 7 rolls.
You can't really compare the probabilities together by saying 'they are both low'. I wouldn't be suprised if Weak being roleblocker are more than 50 times more likely considering their probabilities, but that's pretty much impossible to calculate.
What do you mean the probably presented isn't accurate? It absolutely is. We only have to determine what the chances are of there being at least 1 B generated in the rolls that we don't already know. And the probability of a roleblocker doesn't seem lower because of the roles we already know it is lower. Using the process of elimination, we know that none of the first 3 letters are B. You're trying to defend weak's claim with faulty statistics.
catgirl12466 I'd like you to get in and say something (anything) before a hammer, (and perhaps even hammer yourself)
actually forgot I had this tab open lol, but I still dont really feel like he's 100% scum, and I feel like its a waste to lynch him over someone with a bigger chance of being scum, especially since we dont have that much mislynch room left
and with bigger chance I dont mean I have someone else who I think is 100% scum, but we still have some time left before the day ends
Oh. Mafia would probably just block TWG though so he'd never be able to prove himself anyway
Also UNU's defending of TWG's 'potential slip' by arguing with statistics that TWG didn't even mention only further makes me think this is a team right here. UNU's defended TWG too much to back down at this point so doesn't surprise me he's still defending him either
Mcdonalds should give ketchup automatically since I forgot and now my fries are dry
